Joined: 21 Sep 2008
Posts: 10410
Location: By The Thames on a warm Bank Holiday afternoon
Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2010 1:23 pm Post subject:
I love that its 16/1 for an offspring of Sea The Stars to win the Arc in 2014. That seems absolutely crazy to me, but I know nothing about bloodstock.
How do people who know about this side of things rate that price? jmstocka? aiden? _________________ "The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)
with Zarkava and Sea the Stars hving a bambino, anyone think the runner-up to these 2 could actually go on and win the Arc this time round??
He's running in Meydan 26th March in the Dubai Sheeba Classic and is priced from 7 to 8/1 in some places.
I'd like to see him win this Meydan race and then hopefully pull a few other big wins!!
oh yeh, im talking of Youmzain of course!! thoughts though ladies and gents
14/1 are ridiculously short odds, not least because the horse's pedigree suggests it will do well to show a great deal at two or the early stages of its three year old career. It is a middle distance pedigree, and he isn't going to be rushed whoever he goes to; we've all seen some of the best bred horses in the world end up in low grade races just a few years into their careers (Shami, a son of Bosra Sham most recently). Also, more often than not, top-class racemares very rarely make great broodmares, recent examples including Indian Skimmer, Bosra Sham, Ramruma, Oh So Sharp, Balanchine and Cape Verdi, though some do, such as Miesque, Al Bahathri and Midway Lady to name but a few. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
Joined: 21 Sep 2008
Posts: 10410
Location: By The Thames on a warm Bank Holiday afternoon
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2010 4:56 pm Post subject:
Plum draw for Penitent at Doncaster on Saturday (I suppose that counts as antepost just) now in to 3/1. _________________ "The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)
A filly who excited me last term, who I've only just realised has been acquired by Godolphin is Hibaayeb. I'm no expert, but on breeding you would expect her to be better over the middle distance trips and likely to do better at 3 being by Singspiel (A sire who's daughters have been quality in the main). The progression throughout her four starts at 2 years old was plain for all to see, accumulating in losing her maiden tag in the Grp1 Fillies Mile at Ascot. She hung left that day and arguably hindered the chances of a couple in behind, but if connections have managed to solve this, likely to aid further progress. Could well run in the 1,000 Gns but theyve mentioned France too, but its the step up in trip for the Oaks that interests me.
If I may, I thought I'd put up some early thoughts on some likely 2yo types for the Flat season. This wouldn't be what I'd call a complete list as I haven't got all the main stables' full list of horses in training, so there could well be further additions. Also, these horses I've put forward are based on pedigree only, not info or how they are working.
Apace (6/4 b f Oasis Dream - Much Faster)
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Owner: Cheveley Park Stud
Half sister to the useful 2009 2yo High Twelve (by Montjeu), though is by a much speedier influence in Oasis Dream, so looks sure to take after her other sibling, the speedy Irish performer Sugar Free (5f Listed winner at three). Her dam was a speed merchant in France, winning the Prix Robert Papin and placing the in the Prix Morny; from a classy Juddmonte female line, including the high-class Interval (stayed 1m (1000 Guineas placed), won over 5f at two) and Interim (dam of high-class US performer Midships, as well as the promising 2yo debut winner Principal Role). This filly looks sure to be near the top of the pecking order when it comes to the yard's first batch of 2yos to be unleashed this summer, perhaps in that 6f fillies' maiden they often start a decent sort in (Enthused, Russian Rhythm, Visit etc.) at Newmarket (July) in late June. Fetched 350,000gns as a yearling.
Bravestofthebrave (21/4 b c Elusive Quality - Victoria Cross)
Trainer: John Gosden Owner: Anthony Oppenheimer
Half brother to the high-class middle distance performer Bronze Cannon (dual 1m winner at two, later winner of the Hardwicke Stakes), the useful dual 7f winner (including on debut) Elusive Award, useful 2yo performer Valiance (debut winner) and useful middle distance performer Crimson Ribbon. This colt's dam is fast turning into a producer of high quality animals and was a 7f winner at two herself (later placed over 1m at Listed level); his trainer knows the family well having handled three of her four foals to date, and this colt's sire ought to ensure he makes up into useful juvenile at around 7f/1m this year. It also worth remembering that this colt is related to a couple of winning debutants, so could be one to catch when he makes his racecourse bow; family seem to handle a synthetic surface well, so interesting to see if he debuts at one of the AW tracks.
Communicator (26/1 b c Motivator - Goodie Twosues)
Trainer: Michael Bell Owner: Lady Davis
Half brother to 1m juvenile winner Funny Me (placed over 6f), out of a mare who was a debut winner over 6f at two and later won a valuable sales race over the same distance; related to smart dual purpose performers Altay and Distant Prospect. This colt should make up into a 2yo at around 7f in the summer, though may have enough pace about him to start over 6f; type to go well on debut, though yard's youngsters often come on for their debut outings.
Coriacanrun (8/4 ch c Medicean - Castara Beach)
Trainer: Richard Fahey Owner: Mrs H Steel
Half brother to the smart but fragile Steinbeck (2yo debut winner) and the lightly raced Varenka (Listed place in Italy at two in a three race career), out of a maiden who is related to the high-class 6-7f performer Hill Hopper, dam of the top-class 6-8f performer Nannina, and also the smart but ill-fated Queen Scarlet, a debut winner over 6f as a 2yo (fourth in a Listed Race on her only other start). Despite being related to some fragile types, it seems this costly colt (fetched 175,000gns) is a must on his debut given his family history of winning debuts; may not be as precocious as Steinbeck was but should make it out by summer.
Cruiser (13/2 b c Oasis Dream - Good Girl)
Trainer: William Muir Owner: C L A Edginton
Half brother to the smart three time 1m winner Good Again (rated mid 90's at best) and also 7f winner Ink Spot, out of a very speedy mare who won the Hilary Needler and the Wetherbys Super Sprint, as well as placing in the Cheveley Park Stakes. His trainer often has a couple of nice 2yo sorts in his yard, and this colt looks the sort who should strike early and make up into a half useful performer if his pedigree is anything to go by. Fetched 70,000gns at the sales.
Deny (22/4 ch c Mr Greeley - Sulk)
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Owner: Highclere Thoroughbred Racing (Matilda)
He is out of a top-class racemare who won the Prix Marcel Boussac (Group 1, 1m) as a juvenile, later placing in Group 1's such as the Yorkshire Oaks and Nassau Stakes. Her broodmare career has been notable more for the fact that all her progeny to sell so far have all fetched well into six figures as yearlings, including Ibn Battuta, a $900,000 purchase who is a three time 7f winner in the UAE including at Listed level (Group 2 placed); however, she sadly died whilst being operated on to treat colic last summer. This colt fetched 150,000gns at auction and looks the type to make a smart backend 2yo over 7f/1m, his sire helping to inject some speed into his pedigree; no surprise to see this well bred individual started off at one of the top tracks in the summer.
Desert Law (22/1 b c Oasis Dream - Speed Cop)
Trainer: Andrew Balding Owner: Jeff Smith
First foal of a mare who served connections well in her racing days, winning at Listed level over 5f and placing at Group 2/3 as a juvenile, later winning a valuable handicap without ever being able to recapture her best form. This colt is bred for pure speed, his smart dam herself the daughter of disqualified Nunthorpe winner Blue Siren, so it would be something of a surprise if this colt doesn't prove very effective at sprint trips at some stage this year.
End Or Beginning (1/4 b c Sadler's Wells - Smart 'n Noble)
Trainer: Paul Cole Owner: Mrs Fitri Hay
Not the most obvious of 2yo types on pedigree but is out of a mare who was a very useful juvenile and has produced mostly middle distance sorts, albeit most have won as 2yos, namely Chesham Stakes winner Celtic Silence (6f winner at two) and Jockey Club Cup and John Porter winner Royal And Regal (1m winner at two). He cost 330,000gns and is highly unlikely to be seen until at the very least the 7f maidens start, though most probably will not be sighted until the 1m maidens begin, but could well be up to winning his maiden over the distance this year before progressing into a nice middle distance sort next year.
Enjoy Today (14/3 b c Kingmambo - Queen's Logic)
Trainer: Brian Meehan Owner: Jaber Abdullah
Immediately takes the eye on pedigree being a half brother to the yard's high-class 2yo Lady Of The Desert, a 5f winner on debut who went on to win the Princess Margaret and also the Lowther before running well in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes when third. He is out of a top-class racemare who was unbeaten in a five race career, winning the Queen Mary, Lowther and Cheveley Park Stakes at two before injury brought a premature end to her career on the eve of the 1000 Guineas, that after winning the Fred Darling Stakes. This colt has all the right attributes to make some sort of impact at two, his yard adept at getting the best out of their youngsters, and it also bodes well that two of this colt's siblings made winning debuts as 2yos; should have enough speed to start at 6f.
High Class Girl (8/3 b f Royal Applause - Lady Dominatrix)
Trainer: Mark Johnston Owner: Favourites Racing
Half sister to the smart early season 2yo Janina, a 5f Listed winner (also debut winner), the useful sprint juvenile Exotic Beauty and the progressive sprint handicapper Mattamia, a three times winner over the minimum trip. This colt is the fourth foal of a mare who was a debut winner over 5f for Nerys Dutfield, and she developed into a very useful sprint performer later on, winning in Group 3/Listed company as well as placing at the top level, proving to be a tough, genuine and classy performer. This filly could well prove a bargain at £40,000 and very much looks an early season type on paper; another who could be worth catching first time up given her dam and one of her offspring managed the feat.
Late Telegraph (12/2 b c Montjeu - Bywayofthestars)
Trainer: Henry Cecil Owner: Thomas Barr
Second foal of a Listed placed maiden half sister to top-class middle distance performers Cerulean Sky (dam of Honolulu), L'Ancresse (debut winner at two over 7f) and Irish Oaks winner Moonstone, as well as the useful middle distance performers Diner De Lune and Qaatef. It is easy to see why this colt fetched 320,000gns as a yearling as he is from a top-class middle distance family, but he should be up to making some kind of impact before the season is out, almost certainly once tackling a mile.
Old Master Expert (25/2 b c Royal Applause - Leonica)
Trainer: Michael Bell Owner: Richard Green
Half brother to 2yo 6f debut winner Rodrigo De Torres, and 7f 3yo debut winner Wood Fairy, out of a 1m winning mare who was placed on all three 2yo outings over 6f for this trainer (related to the useful duo South Rock and Soviet Line). Type to make up into a early/mid summer sprint 2yo who should get 7f as the season progresses, perhaps one to catch on debut given the record of the dam's progeny to date. Cost £50,000 at the sales.
Swiss Dream (2/2 b f Oasis Dream - Swiss Lake)
Trainer: David Elsworth Owner: Lordship Stud
Half sister to the yard's useful sprint performer Swiss Franc (runner up in the Coventry Stakes as a 2yo), Swiss Diva, a three time 6f winner who has placed at Listed level, and 7f 2yo winner Swiss Cross. This filly's dam was a very speedy sort who was a debut winner of 5f at two, also winning the Flying Childers in her juvenile days, and was a half sister to the equally fast duo of Blue Iris and Dubai Princess (both debut winners at two over 5f). Her trainer has handled a couple of her siblings with a good deal of success and no reason why this filly cannot be a useful performer herself; likely to be seen out in the summer, her three siblings all debuting in May/June so far.
Tasfeya (11/4 b c Haafhd - Nufoos)
Trainer: Mark Johnston Owner: Hamdan Al Maktoum
Obviously of interest given his year older half brother Awzaan's unbeaten exploits as a juvenile, though his dam was a very useful 6-7f performer in her own right (Listed winner) and from the family of the once high-class sprinter Watching, as well as 6-7f winning 2yo Coasting. He is likely to start a couple of points shorter than he should on debut purely down to the fact he is Awzaan's half brother, but his pedigree does suggest he should be both fairly precocious and smart, while he should be capable of staying 7f this year.
Warneford (8/5 b c Dansili - Maramba)
Trainer: Brian Meehan Owner: Brimacombe,McNally,Vinciguerra,Sangster
Trainer Brian Meehan often has a few high-class 2yos in his care, and this colt very much looks the part on pedigree, this 115,000gns purchase a half brother to the useful duo Cape Amber (debut winner over 7f at two) and Nyramba, a debut winner at two over 5f who went on to land a Listed Race and the valuable Watership Stud Down Sales race, later placing at Group 3 level. This colt's dam was a lightly raced 1m winner and a daughter of the top-class Gayane (from the family of Oh So Sharp) and he looks to have all the right paper credentials to make up into a very useful juvenile this year, and may even prove sharp enough for 6f, though 7f/1m is likely to prove his optimum trip as he matures throughout the season.
Unnamed (28/4 ch f Medicean - Fur Will Fly)
Trainer: Michael Jarvis Owner: Saif Ali
Half sister to some useful performers, notably Fur Will Fly, a smart 6-7f performer who was a 6f winner at two, and Sand Vixen, a speedy juvenile last season who won three times over 5/6f including the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes. This filly's pedigree suggests she should be seen out sooner rather than later, and a couple of her less glamorous siblings, Lille Ida and Rubies, were also winners at two, so something of a surprise if this filly, who fetched 75,000gns as a yearling, doesn't prove up to the task this year at some stage.
Unnamed (26/1 b c Beat Hollow - Merewood)
Trainer: Bryan Smart Owner: Mr A M A Al Shorafa
Out of a lightly raced maiden (placed over 1m 1f) who is a half sister to the top-class sprinter Reverence, as well as the useful 7f/1m performer Helm Bank (debut winner at two), the useful 5/6f performer Quiet Elegance and the progressive sprint performer Impressible. This colt's pedigree is something of a mixture, the distaff side mostly about speed while the sire injects a fair amount of stamina; in the right hands to make his mark at some stage, and may be best suited by 7f eventually this year. Fetched £21,000 at auction.
Unnamed (25/3 b c Invincible Spirit - Mood Swings)
Trainer: Richard Hannon Owner: The Socrates Partnership
This colt is a half brother to seven individual winners, notably the smart 6f-1m handicapper Al Khaleej, the 10f Group 3 winner Grand Ducal (debut winner at two over 7f), 6f 2yo winner Hurricane Floyd (later a useful handicapper at around 7f/1m), useful 6-7f 2yo Lowdown and the useful middle distance performer Tears Of A Clown. This son of Invincible Spirit fetched 120,000gns at auction last autumn and is bred to be very useful, and the success rate of his siblings as 2yos bodes very well for this colt's credentials of landing a race or two this year; also being trained in one of Britain's top suppliers of 2yo winners is hardly a hindrance, and something of a surprise if this colt doesn't win a race or two at between 6-7f this season.
Unnamed (18/3 b c Montjeu - Najmati)
Trainer: Michael Jarvis Owner: HRH Sultan Ahmed Shah
This colt is the second foal of a mare who failed to win in her light career but is a very well connected sort, related to high-class performers Bint Allayl, Kheleyf and Laa Rayb. He cost 250,000gns at the sales and is a well bred individual who looks the type who will appear towards the second half of the season in a 7f maiden at a top track; with a top yard and his pedigree alone suggests he could be pretty smart in time, though should able to make some sort of impact at two this year.
Unnamed (13/3 ch f Pivotal - Our Queen Of Kings)
Trainer: Clive Brittain Owner: Saeed Manana
Half sister to the top-class 7f/1m performer Spinning Ridge, a debut winner over 6f as a 2yo and won at Listed/Group 3 at three over 7f before ending her career with an emphatic victory in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes (1m). Her dam has also produced useful dual purpose performer Shannon Springs and very useful 7-10f handicapper Changing The Guard (5f winner on 3yo debut). This filly should have the speed to be effective at around 6f, though will undoubtedly want at least 7f in time; comes from a successful family and should make a summer 2yo for a yard who saddled the likes of smart early season sorts Jira and Misheer last year. Fetched 130,000gns as a yearling last autumn.
Unnamed (15/2 b c Danehill Dancer - Park Romance)
Trainer: Jeremy Noseda Owner: Nurlan Bizakov
Second foal of a mare who was a 6f winner who later placed in Group 3 company over 7f at two, out of a smart 8-10f performer who has also produced high-class performers such as Winchester, a Grade 1 winner in the US over 10f at three, Pakhoes, a very smart 6f performer at two (placed in the Coventry Stakes and Railway Stakes), the high-class 6-7f performer Rum Charger and the useful 7f/1m winner Stage Presence, later dam of 7f 2yo Listed winner English Ballet. It is no surprise that this impeccably-bred colt fetched 340,000gns at the sales last autumn and he should make up into a nice 2yo sort this season; should be suited by 6f to begin with, though will undoubtedly stay 7f eventually and is in the right hands to make a very smart 2yo performer.
Unnamed (2/2 b f Dansili - Protectress)
Trainer: Henry Cecil Owner: Khalid Abdulla
Closely related to the multiple 9-10f AW winner Stand Guard, out of a lightly raced mare who was a winner on her debut in a 7f Listed Race, though raced only once more, finishing second in a Oaks Trial over 10f at three. Her dam is related to the useful 1m performer Amount, the useful middle distance/staying performer Market Forces and this yard's progressive middle distance performer Acquisition, from the family of Racing Post Trophy winner Armiger, later runner up in the St Leger. This filly's pedigree suggests she will be a mid-season juvenile who will want around 7f, though could well possess the speed for 6f; trainer knows the family well and his knack with fillies suggests that this daughter of Dansili to one to look out for on debut, particularly if she arrives at a top track for her first public outing.
Unnamed (19/3 b c Empire Maker - Valentine Band)
Trainer: Henry Cecil Owner: Khalid Abdulla
Half brother to 7f debut winner at two Await The Dawn, the smart 8-10f French performer Putney Bridge (Listed winner, also Group 3 placed), and the progressive middle distance/staying handicapper Spruce (extended family include Commander In Chief, Dushyantor etc.). This colt's pedigree very much indicates that he will be at his best over at least 10f eventually, but his year younger half brother Await The Dawn was sharp enough to make a winning debut over 7f in July last year, so it will be interesting to see whether this colt shows as much natural ability to debut as early as the summer months. If he does, he would be very interesting given the yard's recent resurgance, and could be another 2yo newcomer from this yard to catch on debut. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
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thoughts though ladies and gents 
