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Micko70
At Stud
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Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 3048
Location: County Durham
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Posted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 11:55 pm Post subject:
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Judo
No Penalties for winning Conditional Jockey Races, otherwise i reckon he would have gone up 10lbs |
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judoman
Triple Crown Winner
 
Joined: 09 Sep 2009
Posts: 2319
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Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:10 am Post subject:
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| easily 10lb, won by 12 lengths could be more like 14lb as was eased to a walk |
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merlin
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Joined: 18 Apr 2006
Posts: 20175
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Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 10:27 am Post subject:
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Changing Lanes (Taunton 2.30) runs again today, complete with a hefty claimer on it; seemed to win with a bit to spare LTO.....anyone on  It has to beat Hobbs Dream, but while this one came back to form LTO, it is hiked in weight and won with its 10lb claimer LTO (so the 10lb claimer isn't weight relief on the back of its win) and going on its record it will struggle I think. There are a few lurkers for me in the pack, notably the unexposed Knowloon and Not So Prudent and even Munlochy Bay, any thoughts on these as dangers?  |
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TheBooyRooney
Stallion
Joined: 05 Apr 2010
Posts: 7353
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Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 10:28 am Post subject:
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not tuesdays but wednesday's,just noticed that Kauto Grand Mogol runs tomorrow at PUNCHENSTOWN in the bumper. 4.45.Is that KAUTO STARSs half brother? I think i heard something no the grapevine about this one. 
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deswalker
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Location: By The Thames on a warm Bank Holiday afternoon
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Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:01 am Post subject:
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What do people mak of Ski Sunday today (15:40)? I was expecting to see this one appear next in a Novice handicap chase off a reasonable mark but he has reverted back to hurdles. Are they admitting defeat with him and fences?
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merlin
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Joined: 18 Apr 2006
Posts: 20175
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Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:10 am Post subject:
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Race is worth 12K to the winner, Des, so maybe they fancy going for a bit of the 20K pot. Maybe they have 'one eye' on a handicap chase down the line though.... it's not without hope, since it went better jumping-wise LTO.
What to make of the stable form though? Warren do you have any news on their fitness? He has Destroyer Deployed out today too, entered up for Cheltenham and surely better than LTO. |
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beepee1984
At Stud
Joined: 22 Aug 2010
Posts: 2639
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Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:24 am Post subject:
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| Des, I would be worried about the stable form, but then again you could say the same thing about Nicholls, Hobbs, and Moore which makes me think that Devil to Pay may go off Fav. The one I think is well overpriced is Highway Code now available at 75 on the exchanges, he's a CD winner who is on the improve and ran consistently well until disappointing LTO. He is up in the weights, but with so many stables out of form he well may improve to play apart in this race if we can forgive his latest run. |
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merlin
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Joined: 18 Apr 2006
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Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:33 am Post subject:
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This is potentially an interesting stat. When you look at odds-on shots (1.5-1.99) at Taunton, in Novice Hurdle races, who won their last race, since 2004, you get the following results, filtered for weight:
11-10 to 11-13 2 1 50.0%
11-6 to 11-9 4 2 50.0%
11-2 to 11-5 2 0 0.0%
10-12 to 11-1 1 0 0.0%
10-4 to 10-7 1 0 0.0%
This is only a fairly small sample to go on, but it would on the face of it, suggest that horses carrying less than 11-6, do not perform as well. Urbain De Sivola may well go off odds-on (although only just odds-on right now) so it could potentially be worth taking on/laying. |
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redboy
At Stud
Joined: 13 Apr 2009
Posts: 3310
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Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:44 am Post subject:
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| Looks to be some competitive stuff over the jumps today and I really like the look of O Crotaigh in the 2.10 at Wetherby.Notched up a couple of wins on the bounce at Market Rasen quite impressively ( beaten by Red Tanber at Musselburgh previous to that , Red Tanber winning again at Muss last week).Currently 9.4 win, 2.82 palce on BF - thought it would be shorter. |
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judoman
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 09 Sep 2009
Posts: 2319
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Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:45 am Post subject:
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| did Tom Segal put his Ryan Air tip in the paper today or is it Wednesday? |
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smeemartin
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 16 Apr 2011
Posts: 1070
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Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:49 am Post subject:
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| @ judo man, pretty sure looking at oddschecker that he has put up MEDERMIT... |
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judoman
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 09 Sep 2009
Posts: 2319
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Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 11:54 am Post subject:
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great, I backed it at 16s weeks ago  |
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