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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
  
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 9:53 am Post subject: johnston
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Lingfield
Handicap
(Cl6) 1 run for 0 wins and a LSL of 1.00.
Distance:
7f: 1 run for 0 wins and LSL of 1.00
Over 60 days since last run 1 run for 0 wins and a LSL of 1,00.
Previous run
0: 1 run for 0 wins and LSL of 1.00.
Runners:
10-16: 1 run for 0 wins and LSL of 1.00.
Previous Race:
Own Age: 1 run for 0 wins and LSL of 1.00
SP : 5/1 or over: 0 from 1 and LSL of 1.00.
Last edited by EyeNoAgain on Sun Jan 15, 2012 10:10 am; edited 1 time in total |
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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 10:01 am Post subject: johnston
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Wolverhampton:
Non-handicap:
Maiden:
(Cl5) 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
Distance:
7f: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
Since Last Run:
1-7 days: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
Previous Run:
2nd: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
Runners:
8-11: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
Previous Race:
MultiAged: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
SP
Odds-on: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80 |
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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 10:39 am Post subject: johnston
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Course:
Lingfield: 5 runs for 1 win 9 (1 placed) and LSP 0.00
Wolver: 1 run for 1 win and LSP 0.80
Type:
Handicap (Cl6) 1 run for 0 wins and a LSL of 1.00.
Non-handicap;
Maiden
(Cl 5) 4 runs for 2 wins and LSP of 2.80
(Cl 6) 1 run for 0 wins (1 placed) and LSL of 1.00
Distance:
10f: 2 runs for 0 wins and LSL of 2.00
8f: 1 run for 0 wins (i placed) and LSL of 1.00
7f: 2 runs for 1 win and LSL of 0.20
6f: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 4.00
Off Course: 1-7 days: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
Over 60 days: 4 runs for 1 win and a LSP of 1,00.
Previous run
2nd: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80.
4th: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 4.00
0: 3 runs for 0 wins and LSL of 3.00.
unraced: 1 run for 0 wins (1 placed) and LSL of 1.00
Runners: 8-11: 2 runs for 1 win and LSL of 0.20
12-15: 4 runs for 1 win (1 placed) and LSP of 1.00.
Previous Race:
Own Age: 4 runs for 1 win and LSP of 1.00
Multi-Age: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
SP
Odds-on: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
5/2 to under 5/1: 2 runs for 1 win (1 placed) and LSP of 3.00
5/1 or over: 0 from 3 and LSL of 3.00. |
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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 10:44 am Post subject: johnston
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Jockeys:
Joe Fanning:
Handicaps: 1 run for 0 wins and LSL of 1.00
Non-Handicaps: 4 runs for 2 wins (1 placed) and LSP of 2.80
Franny Norton:
Non-Handicaps: 1 run for 0 wins and LSL of 1.00 |
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jmstocka
At Stud
Read My Blog!
Joined: 23 Feb 2007
Posts: 4864
Location: VAS LEGAS
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Posted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 1:37 pm Post subject:
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EyeNoAgain, nice one for keeping the stats 
A couple of entries for tomorrow at Wolves
The first is New Decade, who looks likely not to fit the stats due to price and does look exposed.
The 2nd runner looks very interesting AUTHENTICATION, would really like to see some money come for this.
Related to some nice types and plenty of winners, holds a Derby entry and is by Authorized out of a Shirley Heights mare 
Couple in the race with form could see a fairly nice price available  |
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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2012 2:10 pm Post subject: johnston
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Wolverhampton
Handicap
(Cl5) 1 run for 0 wins (1 placed 13/2) and a LSL of 1.00.
Distance:
9f: 1 run for 0 wins (1 placed 13/2) and a LSL of 1.00.
Over 60 days since last run 1 run for 0 wins and a LSL of 1,00.
Previous run
0: 1 run for 0 wins (1 placed 13/2) and a LSL of 1.00.
Runners:
8-11: 1 run for 0 wins (1 placed 13/2) and a LSL of 1.00.
Previous Race:
Own Age: 1 run for 0 wins (1 placed 13/2) and a LSL of 1.00.
SP :
5/1 or over : 1 run for 0 wins (1 placed 13/2) and a LSL of 1.00. |
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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2012 2:19 pm Post subject: johnston
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Wolverhampton:
Non-handicap:
Maiden:
(Cl5): 2 runs for 1 win and LSL of 0.20
Distance:
7f: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
9f: 1 run for 0 wins and LSL of 1.00
Since Last Run:
1-7 days: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
Previous Run:
2nd: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
Unraced: 1 run for 0 wins and LSL of 1.00
Runners:
8-11: 2 runs for 1 win and LSL of 0.20
Previous Race:
MultiAged: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
SP
Odds-on: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
5/1 or over 1 run for 0 wins and LSL of 1.00 |
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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2012 3:02 pm Post subject: johnston
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Course:
Lingfield: 5 runs for 1 win 9 (1 placed) and LSP 0.00
Wolver: 3 runs for 1 (1 placed) win and LSL 1.20
Type:
Handicap
(Cl5): 1 run for 0 wins (1 placed) and LSL of 1.00
(Cl6) 1 run for 0 wins and a LSL of 1.00.
Non-handicap;
Maiden
(Cl 5) 5 runs for 2 wins and LSP of 1.80
(Cl 6) 1 run for 0 wins (1 placed) and LSL of 1.00
Distance:
10f: 2 runs for 0 wins and LSL of 2.00
9f: 2 runs for 0 wins (1 placed) and LSL of 2.00
8f: 1 run for 0 wins (i placed) and LSL of 1.00
7f: 2 runs for 1 win and LSL of 0.20
6f: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 4.00
Off Course:
1-7 days: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
Over 60 days: 5 runs for 1 win (1 placed) and a LSP of 0,00.
Previous Run:
2nd: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80.
4th: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 4.00
0: 4 runs for 0 wins (1 placed) and LSL of 4.00.
unraced: 2 runs for 0 wins (1 placed) and LSL of 2.00
Runners:
5-7: 1 run for 0 wins (1 placed) fand LSL of 1.00
8-11: 3 runs for 1 win and LSL of 1.20
12-15: 4 runs for 1 win (1 placed) and LSP of 1.00.
Previous Race:
Own Age: 5 runs for 1 win (2 placed) and LSP of 0.00
Multi-Age: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
SP
Odds-on: 1 run for 1 win and LSP of 0.80
5/2 to under 5/1: 2 runs for 1 win (1 placed) and LSP of 3.00
5/1 or over: 5 runs for 0 wins (1 placed) and LSL of 5.00. |
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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2012 3:08 pm Post subject: johnston
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Profit made provided you have stuck to the advice of avoiding SP 5/1 or over.
Early days but positives may be Maidens and also from when previous race was against older horses.
Unraced and unplaced last time out looking sick. |
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jmstocka
At Stud
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Joined: 23 Feb 2007
Posts: 4864
Location: VAS LEGAS
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Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2012 3:23 pm Post subject:
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Well done Eyenoagain, just been busy putting some SP breakdowns together  |
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jmstocka
At Stud
Read My Blog!
Joined: 23 Feb 2007
Posts: 4864
Location: VAS LEGAS
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Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2012 3:28 pm Post subject:
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Table shows that Johnstons 3yo runners could be catergorised into 3 departments.
Strongly Fancied = SP upto 9-2
Moderately Fancied = SP 5-1 to 9-1 ( Place only )
Unfancied = SP over 10-1 |
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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Tue Jan 17, 2012 3:43 pm Post subject: johnston
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Yes, good stuff jmstocka but I have one reservation and that is the idea that Moderately Fancied warrant a place only bet. Do you have figures to support this or are you simply falling into the trap of not wishing to totally miss out on a good priced winner? Those 20 consecutive losers look pretty convincing to me. We should always be looking to eliminate loss makers and to increase stakes on profit makers even if it means reducing bets and increasing patience.
At the price range one would need to get a place SR of around 60%, I think, in order for the proposition to yield a profit. I would politely suggest that dispensing with the place only idea and simply increasing the stakes on the clear profitable areas would be a better idea.
Yes, we may miss out on one but all those losers should quickly heal our grief.
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