Just the six runners for this juvenile sprint maiden, but it looks a reasonable enough race for the grade in which a trio with previous experience set a far from insurmountable standard and take on a trio of newcomers, including a couple from an in-form stable.
The selection is a daughter of Acclamation who is a half sister to high-class multiple 5f winner (including at Group 3/Listed level) Enticing, very useful dual 7f 3yo winner Sentaril, useful dual 5f winner Speed Song and temperamental 7f 3yo winner Map Of Heaven, out of a very smart multiple 5f winner (including at Group 2/3 level) who was a half sister to useful 6f-1m winner Royal Artist. This smartly bred filly is trained by William Haggas and is from a family very well known to her handler, having trained the dam and all of her offspring, the best of them being Molecomb Stakes winner Enticing and this season's exciting dual 7f winner Sentaril, both of whom were capable of making winning debuts. This daughter of Acclamation is very much bred to come into her own over the minimum distance, her dam at her best over this trip at two and her classiest sibling also a sharp sort at two, and the fact that this filly was given an entry for the Queen Mary Stakes later in the week is an indicator that she is well regarded by top connections. Her stable has been in fine form these past few months, sending out their first two-year-old runner of 2012 to make a winning debut a few weeks back whilst another finished second on debut (also won this very race in 2007 with a half sister to the dam of this filly); introduced at a very realistic level and in winnable race, so it would be a bit disappointing if this well-related filly couldn't get off the mark at the first time of asking.
The Richard Hannon trained Dansili Dual is a son of Dansili who is a half brother to 5f 2yo winner The Rising out of a high-class 5-6f winner (including at Group 2/Listed level) who was a half sister to smart sprinter Davignon, 5f 2yo winners Mr Man In The Moon and Triton Dance out of a very useful dual 6f winner (placed at Listed level). This colt made his debut in a 5f maiden at Doncaster at the beginning of this month, for which he was sent off the 2/1 joint-favourite; raced in behind the leader and showed a fair amount of pace to just past halfway, but he was soon ridden and unable to make any further impression, one paced inside the final furlong as he came home a soundly held third behind Cosmic Chatter (beaten 3¾ lengths). His next outing came a week later when contesting a 5f maiden at Bath, going off the well-fancied 6/4 market leader; raced in behind the leaders, making headway past halfway and taking up the running over a furlong from home, sticking on for pressure throughout the final furlong but proving unable to hold off Cuisine, going down by a neck at the line. It was a respectable enough effort in defeat, losing out only narrowly and leading until the drying strides, but his conqueror on that occasion had been well beaten on his previous two outings and has since met with defeat again at a higher level. He is well bred and from a top stable that is usually a force to be reckoned with, both here and with two-year-olds in general, but their son of Cherry Hinton winner Jewel In The Sand doesn't look open to a huge amount of improvement (well-backed and known his job well on both starts); sets the standard on what has been achieved by those with experience and entitled to go close, but no surprise if he were to prove vulnerable to a half decent newcomer here.
The Mick Channon trained Symboline is a daughter of Royal Applause who is the first foal of a prolific 5f winner who was a half sister to the useful and prolific 6-7f winner (including at Listed level) Royal Storm, quite useful 5-7f winner Arruhan, 6f 3yo winner Fata and modest 6f 2yo winner Tokyo Jo out of a dual 5f 2yo winner/Queen Mary fourth who was a half sister to high-class sprinters Imperial Jade and Reesh. This filly made her debut outing in a five-runner 5f maiden at Ascot in April, going off a relatively unfancied 11/1 chance; raced in behind the leaders, ridden two furlongs out and switched approaching the final furlong, keeping on inside the final furlong without ever looking serious threat to the leading duo as she came home in third behind Premier Steps (beaten 1½ lengths). She failed to build on the promise of that debut effort when contesting a 6f maiden at Leicester next time, for which she was sent off an 11/1 chance; she was squeezed out exiting the stalls, recovering to race in midfield close to the action but ridden over two furlongs out and unable to make any impression, fading inside the final furlong to come home in eighth behind the Coventry-bound Artigiano (beaten 14½ lengths). It was a disappointing effort considering she had shown promise first time up, taking a backwards step for all being hampered at the start hardly helped matters; back down to the minimum distance here and that could well help (didn't convince over six furlongs last time), but does need to bounce back from that disappointing effort last time for all this appear to be a winnable enough race on paper.
The Sylvester Kirk trained Little Miss Zuri is a daughter of Choisir who is closely related to very useful 5f 2yo winner Joyce (Listed placed; by Danehill Dancer) and a half sister to triple 1m winner Apres Ski and 9-12f winner Miskilette, very modest 5-6f winner Spinetail Rufous and 10f 3yo winner Miss Uluwatu, out of a maiden sister to the dam of high-class middle distance performers Asian Heights and St Expedit. This filly made her debut outing in a 5f fillies' maiden at Sandown last month, for which she was sent off an unfancied 20/1 chance; slowly into stride, she was never seriously involved at any stage, off the pace and ridden over two furlongs out and eventually beating just one home behind Queen Mary hopeful Upward Spiral (beaten 12½ lengths). She is entitled to improve for that overall experience, slowly into stride and never involved thereafter in what looked a decent enough race on paper, and her stable's youngsters invariably improve a good amount for their initial outing as proven on Sunday with Star Breaker winning at Salisbury after finishing down the field first time out. However, this daughter of Choisir didn't show enough on debut to suggest she would be of serious interest when next seen, and the two with previous experience alone make more appeal than her on what they achieved respectively; add the newcomers into the mix and this filly looks set to struggle once again here.
William Haggas saddles another newcomer alongside Sky Garden in the shape of the Jim Crowley ridden Royal Aspiration, a son of Acclamation who is a half brother to dual US sprint winner Unapologetic and US 1m 1f winner Binks Forest, out of a winning half sister to a whole host of winners including Acomb/Wokingham hero Big Timer and useful US trio Excite, Ground Hero and Zen Diva. This colt fetched €32,000 as a yearling and makes a reasonable amount of appeal on pedigree, being a half brother to a dual of winners in the States and out of a winning half sister to the smart 6-7f winner Big Timer and a stack of other winners in the US, from the family of Rockfel winner Top Hope. He doesn't make quite as much appeal on paper as stablemate Sky Garden, though the market beforehand is likely to reveal what's what in that regard; entry in the Weatherby's Super Sprint suggests that he has inherited most of his sire's speed/precocity.
The final member of the field is the Stuart Williams trained Why So Fast, a daughter of Kodiac who is the third foal of a maiden half sister to 2m 4f-3m hurdle/3m-3m 1f chase winner Water Font. This filly was picked up for £8,500 at the Doncaster Breeze Ups earlier this year, but she makes extremely little appeal on pedigree, her two siblings to have raced so far showing very little indeed, whilst her dam was of limited ability and herself a half sister to a whole host of modest maidens on the Flat and a half sister to a useful winning jumper. Her stable get the odd winning newcomer, but the majority of their youngsters are brought along at a steady rate with nurseries/handicaps in mind at a later date; been introduced into what looks a winnable enough race, but the other two newcomers alone make plenty more appeal on pedigree and almost certainly best watched on debut, unless the market signals beforehand strongly suggest a prominent showing is expected from this daughter of Kodiac. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
Pitkin has been in the form of its life recently and is brought out quickly in search of the hat trick but the combination of 10-4 and soft ground could just be his undoing. Hellbender has also been running consistantly and whilst all his wins have come on the AW has put in some good efforts on turf when the ground has been soft. Came up against what looked a well h'capped horse in Fieldgunner Kirkup when 2nd at Newcastle and also ran a good 2nd earlier this season when 2nd to Rise to Glory with Saturdays horse alert winner Jupiter Pluvius just behind, both those good runs were over 7fs from this mark, but also only just got touched off at Newcastle last year over 6fs. Tomorrows stiff 6fs on soft ground could just see him get home.
Fama Mac-3.45 Carlisle 5/1
This horse posted a very eye catching effort last time when after being very heavily backed got outpaced early on before finishing very strongly to beat everything bar Bosun Breeze running on the other side of the track. The winner has gone on to win 2 out of its next 3 races and now has a mark off 86 from 68! The 3rd horse Choc a mocca has won its next 2 races and is now rated 67 from 57!
Fama Mac runs from the same mark 54 and this stiff 5fs should see him running on strongly at the end.
3.45 Carlisle PIVOTAL PROSPECT 5/1, NAP This 4yo filly returns today after a resounding win by 4 lenghts at Newcastle on soft ground over 5f (class 5) 31 days ago. She made all that day and looked the class from the off, easing through to the 2f mark then turning on the turbos to leave her competition eating her dust. She's a progressive type, with being unplaced in her first 4 starts she began to find her feet 2 runs ago with a hard fought 3rd at Redcar over 5f. Shane Kelly rides again today and his apprentiship status helps to lessen the 9lb increase for the win lto. Trainer Tracy Waggott and jockey have decent form of late between them with 3,3,1,4,2,1,9. Wild Sauce holds favouritism at present, but i was underwhelmed by her 2nd lto and she is yet to be tested on soft ground.
Value E/W bets:
3.00 JUST TIMMY MARCUS 16/1, He has almost exclusivly raced at Wolverhampton with 37 runs and yet to be outside the top 6 for this year with 3,3,5,2,3,6,4,4. His best form is at 7f with a win and 7 placings to his name, 3 this year. Of the 8 races this year, he has only been beaten by more than 2 lengths twice.
5.45 ELLIES IMAGE 12/1, 5 wins and from 25 runs all over 7f one was at Carlisle last August. Her suited ground suggests to be towards good/soft and 3 wins have been in today's class of 5. Trainer Brian Baugh has a place rate at Carlisle of 46.67% and jockey and trainer place rate is at 62.5%.
Uprise made a decent enough start to the season following home comfortable winner Bartolemeu over 6 furlongs at this track and that horse was since just edged out of a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket. Another decent showing in 4th at Kempton over 6f when following home two subsequent winners in 2nd and 3rd who are now rated 88 and 89 (both raced off 76). He never really finished off his races over 7 and 8 furlongs as a juvenile, and followed suit last time out when tried in a visor. Bodging the start he was always out in the rear and hanging towards the end of the race. The visor has been quickly removed and he is now dropped down to 5 furlongs for a chance. His Dam won both the Princess Margaret and Lowther Stakes from a sprinting family. Sire was a top class sprinter, and his progeny do very well over shorter trips. The horse is a fully brother to Levitate who has a similar profile regarding not finishing his races, and a half-brother to Racy who is a very capable sprinter in the Class 2 fields at the moment. The drop back in trip might be key to unlocking this maiden, and he's been flagged up by two of my systems as a good bet for today. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
Snow Trooper is the obvious place to start in this handicap, given that he won a course and distance race here last week by 8 easy lengths. However, it was an easier race with a small field which may have artificially increased the winning distance, he did carry his head awkwardly and the ground was very deep that day which it will certainly not be today (officially Good to Soft but drying conditions). Given this and the short turn around I think he's no sure thing here.
In fact although Snow Trooper was favourite for that race he won well, Sylvester Kirk’s Scottish Boogie was well fancied as well going off at 2/1 but never really being involved. It is interesting that that yard reoppose this favourite today with the progressive looking Great Shot. At first glance his form makes him look an all-weather specialist, given that his 2 wins and one placed effort have all been on artificial surfaces, but he also ran very well lto in a competitive apprentices event at York under the inexperienced Thomas Brown, finishing 4th of 20. No offence to that young jockey but this horse has not always looked the easiest of rides; he needs stoking up as he doesn’t really appear to have much of a turn of pace despite his ability, and James Doyle taking over today looks a big positive.
He has interesting form as well with the top weight here, Top Diktat, who won another decent race at Newbury last back-end. That day he was giving a pound to Great Shot but the weights seem somewhat irrelevant here as the way the race panned out favoured Top Diktat strongly. There was a very strong pace on throughout and those horses that started prominently were strongly unfavoured by this. Great Shot requires to be prominent and he sat in 4th before taking over a furlong or so out, coming there full of running and looking the likely winner at that point. However, he flattened out probably running out of stamina in the final 100 yards and Top Diktat, who was held up early and stays further was taken around the field by Ryan Moore to win whilst our hero finished 8th.
It is also interesting to note that this race was in the week after the introduction of the new whip rules, as previously stated Great Shot needs some stoking up to hit top stride and James Doyle had already used his whip allowance before entering the closing stages, so he sensibly rode the horse out hands and heels in the final furlong. I’m certainly not suggesting that this would be the difference between winning and losing that race, but looking at their relative positions half a furlong out and at the winning post I am certain that they would have been much closer together had the race panned out slightly differently.
To be honest, there are plenty in this field which I feel are opposable on grounds of possibly being outpaced over the trip; Jacks Revenge, The Cayterers and Choral Festival would all prefer a few extra furlongs, whilst Katmai River and Great Charm have the opposite problem. Peponi is a maiden with moderate form at best and Hayaku is a course and distance winner but in a maiden which looks uncompetitive in this context, although he will be spot on after 2 runs for a yard which often has winners by the Thames. The biggest danger could be Mahadee who I followed briefly last season and is down to a very dangerous looking mark, as long as the cut in the ground doesn’t catch him out slightly I would be wary of him.
In fact at prices of 22/1, 14/1 and 9/1 these three could be EW dutched and I don’t think that would be a bad approach at all.
19:40 Windsor - KINGS N DREAMS @ 16/1
As opposed to the first race I've taken a look at, above, I do feel that this is a very trappy little contest with plenty of horses in there which could be winning this on their day. Cocohatchee is a horse that I have backed this year at the venue (EW thankfully as it finished 3rd!), We Have A Dream won this race last year and is on a similar type of mark, Jack My Boy is on a very low mark for a trainer who had quite a few entries for this race at the 5 day stage (Evans does target these bigger Windsor meetings), whereas Ganas is another who looks to have had a couple of "fitness" runs before being aimed at a race.
However, Kings' N Dreams is the one that most caught my imagination following a very eyecatching run at the track a couple of runs ago over the distance. Slowly away, he was held up early and finished a never nearer 4th despite having to come down the centre of the track when the best ground was far rail. A subsequent run over 7f at Kempton from a carpark draw should be best ignored and the better ground today will be in his favour.
As I say, the dangers are stacked up in this handicap, but I find it interesting that the yard are willing to reoppose We Have A Dream to whom this horse finished 7th to in the same race last year on the same terms. At 16/1 this seems the best value in the race at the current time and worth a small dabble.
Good luck all _________________ "The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)
445 Carlisle Thackery 0.5pt win 0.5pt place. Looking to take on the fav whos carrying some weight today. Forgive the last run up in grade and on the faster ground. Over priced in the context of this race. Will go on the ground trip and track. Jockey has a good record on the horse 1127 horse is still lightly raced and the form of the haydock race 2 starts back is as good as any here. Trainer is a bit quiet but prices suggest the horses have not been fancied and hopefully will get a run for our money today. _________________ Watching those snakes !!!!!!!!
Quick one here.The Dead 8 go to post for this average looking race and the selection i think if running to its best should go close here.The favourite here is Circle Of Angels at 5/2 and the second favourite is CUCKOO ROCK at 3-1.
FINCH FLYER has faced CUCKOO ROCK twice in the past and beaten it twice.Once on polytrack over 16f in 2011,and is massively better off in the weights.But forgetting that run the intertesting one is it beat it on turf over todays trip by 40 lenghts and is better off in weights by 2 pounds for this contest.Through a form line through CUCKOO ROCK who is weighted based on run last month to get closer or even beat CIRCLE OF ANGELS,thus giving FINCH FLYER A big chance here at the weights.
Should be fit from NH runs and has won off this sort of mark on the flat in the past.First run for A Sadik having left Moore,De sousa takes the ride in the first outing for that stable,form on flat is 5331/5-4,not too bad and should be in the mix here. _________________ *SPEED RATINGS WITH MARKET SUPPORT BLOG* SPEED BLOG 2011+447.25pts
**From small stakes,average bet 5pts per day**
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