HORSE RACING SUNDAY- SELECTIONS

[smeemartin]

D 3-00 Newstead Abbey, was down to run in a class 3 sprint today and would have probably gone off as fav but got withdrawn (soft ground given as reason)which is a bit strange as the excuse for its poor run lto when well backed was the ground which was gd/gd-fm so being as its great debut 2nd was on good and they know it doesn't like ground any with any firm in I would have thought they would have let him take his chance if ground was the issue...I have a feeling that they just prefer to go for the easier class 5 option here...todays race will probably also be on soft ground so if they let him take his chance he should be in with a good shout..
There has been massive support on both runs so he is obviously held in high regard at home and Neil Callan is on it tomorrow and he is in great form , this looks to be another positive move,I will be very surprised if this does not go off fav here....

[jrt6644]

4.40 Doncaster SHES A CHARACTER 12/1 E/W, 3 from 3 at Doncaster 2 over 1m and on soft ground and all 3 in class 4. Her most recent win was at Doncaster with all the above 2 months ago. Richard Fahey's tops the trainer list for 2012 at Doncaster with 4 wins and a 38.4% place rate. Jockey Shane Kelly has some decent form too, with a 18.7% win and 45.5% place rate over 14 days, along with a 42.9% place rate at Doncaster. She's back down in class today from 3 lto placing 6th over good/firm ground at Carlsile. There is value for sure in 12/1.

[bully1981]

220 Sailsbury Quinz mistress 0.5pt win 1.5pt place. R hughes takes the ride today and he does well when riding for H Morrison stable 6 wins from 30 rides. Trainers strike rate is poor at present but did have a winner on the 11th and has had several placed since. Forgive the last run as possible bounced as the time before won coming back from a Lay off at Windsor. We are running off 83 today and our win came off 76 so are carrying plenty of weight but have managed similar weights in the past and placed. Also we have placed on all bar 1 tries at the trip. Good race and hopefully we are involved in the finish
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Watching those snakes !!!!!!!!

[beepee1984]

3.35 Doncaster - Hamoody 50/1 BOG

I'm shocked at just how big a price this horse is. He runs today off a career low rating off 81, his only win came off 82. His racing this season started with a placed effort and his best run off the season with todays jockey on board followed by a run where he was eased down when beat and so hard to judge that form follewed by a run where he lost his chance at the start but stayed on to finish 4l down and it looked like Hamoody is more suited to 6 furlongs than the winner that day and with todays jockey claim has a 16lb swing in the weights with Head Space who has been made 2nd Fav. This horse has been upped in class which unusually I think will be of benefit to him due to the fact he may start slowly and its easier to get back into the race with alot of weight to carry, after jockey claim he races off 8-10. He ran a very good race at Newmarket 1000 guineas meeting last year when finishing 6th in a class 2 and the reason he could be competitive that day was the fact he had a low weight and he is showing a lot better form than when upped in class to win in 2010. He has a good draw as 6 of the 8 horses placed in this race in the last 2 seasons have been drawn in double figures. I think this horse has a real chance to surprise and run a cracking race today, no I won't be surprised if he runs like a donkey, but with all the conditions right he is too big a price. The only condition that could be a problem is the ground as this is a unknown, 3 runs on GS 2 in group 1 class (and hes never been that good) and 1 off top weight which wasn't a bad run considering my views that this horse will always struggle to carry a high weight.

[lookingglass91]

3:15 Cork

Mirza

The no doubt soft ground will be to his horse's liking and runs over 5f again where it has won 2 out of 2. Rae Guest yard in fine form and I think it can go in again today against some unfancied rivals. Currently 3/1

[deswalker]

14:20 Salisbury - GOSBECK @ 9/2

Very keen on Gosbeck today in the first at Salisbury, even though we've missed the very best of the prices. It was a very hot race she ran in lto at Epsom; the well beaten 5th has gone on to prove 10lbs in at the weights for example, the third has run better back at Epsom in the 12f handicap on Derby day, the well beaten 8th won up in class at Goodwood and the winner Aiken has obviously gone on to a Group victory. So there are plenty of formlines to suggest that she is still well in off a mark of 84.

In addition, she shaped very well to me in the race, struggling for balance a bit on the downhill sections, making headway round Tattenham corner but just running out of steam on the straight (on reappearance) on ground which was officially Soft, Heavy in places but was actually bottomless (on the verge of abandonment but for the fact that Epsom drains so well). Given the fact that conditions could well have been against her, she could have done with the run and she was only ridden hands and heels once it was clear that Aiken was striding clear is was a very promising run.

Of the opposition, Quiz Mistress won a race which has worked out well at Windsor (races at the track in May tend to), Kathleen Frances has been threatening to go in recently and Maydream is progressing. I wouldn't be with Hamilton Hill under a penalty after winning a 4 runner affair and from a few lbs out the handicap, whereas Dubai Glory is about a 75 horse for me and so doesn't have a lot on the handicapper here. Gosbeck to me has the scope to put all these to bed given normal progress and could be far too strong by my reckoning here, now the ground has dried out sufficiently for her to show her best.

Good luck all
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"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

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[thefivecs]

Just the 3 bets for me today.

2.00 Doncaster Lady Bluesky NAP 4th

Firstly its the only horse in the race to have won at the distance which is a positive straight away. Loves the soft ground (won on soft ground 7 times). Record on the flat is 1st: 4 2nd: 3 3rd: 1 out of 17. She is 2lb lower than last winning mark (better race) and jockey takes a further 3lb off because its an apprentice race.

2.50 Salisbury Naabegha

Came close last time on soft ground. Travelled into the race very nicely and was just beaten. I think the drop in trip will suit. Solemn has never won off this mark even though winning easily last time.

5.15 Doncaster Dropzone NB

Has shown modest form but interesting to see that money has come for this one today. Entitled to improvement in first time handicap.

[itsfreeusee]

[u]my sunday selections[u]

2.00 Sinnamara e/w
Ran well in Ireland over middle distances on softish ground and 1mile6 should be perfect and only reason is such a big price is because it changed hands cheaply and it's price is a joke should be alot shorter.

3.00 Warrant officer, e/w looks a bigger price than it should be and I noticed was 33/1 at corals yet only 20/1 on Betfair so I was more than happy to grab teh 33/1 for Warrant Officer, this horse ran well last time on faster ground and I guess some the bookmakers think it wont go in the softer ground but it's sire Misue Bond, who handled cut in the ground and and Warrant Officer, can improve again and place or even win on this softer ground for the inform Channon horse.

3.35 Coolminx, loves the soft ground and has a nice stall 15 and looks destined for a place at least 20/1

4.10 Regal Acclaim, looks the 1 too be on loves the ground and trip and is pretty consistant and will be tough too beat.

4.40 Shes A Character, loves it at doncaster on this ground and is atarcting some support and should go very close and hopefully win.

5.15 Queens Estate, was second at doncater though was well beaten was clear of the rest of the field and should be fine on this ground and is a nice price I took 6/1

[InsideMan]

2.45 CHANTILLY - TROIS LUNES 28/1 E/W NAP

This race looks wide open to me , clearly Beauty Parlour is the one to beat and she should win but I can see my pick running into the places for sure here, she may even be good enough to win and it's not as if it would be a surprise as she has already beaten the winner of a key trial for this race already and they both race against each other again today.

The horse she beat was Sagawara and she beat this horse over 1m 1f on heavy conditions at Longchamp, this was a group 3 race for 3 year old fillies that she won. Sagawara has since gone on to win the Prix Saint-Alary stakes at Longchamp over 1m 2furlongs and believe it or not this is a group 1 race, it is also a key trial in the lead up to this race.

I believe Trois Lunes can confirm that form with Sagawara today, the thing I really think will help this filly today is the ground and I can't really see her not running her race today and she is a huge price to do so as well. The favourite is the one to beat and she sets the standard on form, the race she won last time is probably the best trial for this race today but that is reflected in the market and I'd rather go for a horse who is sure to stay the trip and will also like the conditions and that horse for me is Trois Lunes who is a great E/W bet at 28/1

[itsfreeusee]

2.45 Chantilly - Valyra e/w and Petite Noblesse e/w

Valyra, has won twice in row now and it's last win on gdsft ground was impressive in very fast time and is still unexposed and will improve again and I think will go very close for Johnny Murtagh.

Petite Noblessa, was behind noblessa last time and the trip was probleys too short and probleys wanted softer ground wich it wont get today either but stayed on under hands and heels and I think will improve alot today over extra trip and outrun it's big price.

[passthebrush]

Kissed 2.45 Chantilly.



Should go well, money was coming in for it for the English Oaks and Ryan Moore gave a very positive interview regarding its chances. Was subsequently pulled from the race down to unsuitable quick ground, O'Brien says it relishes soft ground which it gets today. Has a excellent pedigree and is currently unbeaten. Got a very good short price favourite to beat however I think this will go very close.

One negative is that J O'Brien replaces Moore who I believe is a far better jockey as he's down to ride another Ballydoyle entry Up.