Royal Ascot 2012 - Discussion thread

[deswalker]

Definitely soft? Not so sure it will be by Saturday. Current forecast sunny til Wednesday.

Anyway, I didn't notice the flood of money that has come in for Fame and Glory in the Gold Cup over the last few days. Evens in places?

Definitely not for me...
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[budgie27]

Definitely soft for Saturday - well you wouldn't back that at Even money - Chris Stickles reckons there is a good chance it will be good by the end of the week. Having said that the ground will be pretty churned up by Saturday so might still take some getting trips particularly on the straight course. It was interesting to hear what Paul Messara said about older mares travelling over from Oz. Basically he said that mares are not like colts and geldings and it is more difficult for them and that coming from one season to another is tricky. Not a problem for Otensia (their main concern seems to be soft ground) as she has been here since early April - but is another factor for Black Caviar to overcome (along with racing on an undulating course for pretty much first time as far as I know and possible softer ground and a big (maybe?) field). Neither horse is totally guaranteed to win but you would fairly safe backing Frankel at 1-5 but personally there are enough reasons not to want to have a penny on BC at 1-3 especially if Bated Breath goes to the Jubilee meaning there are at least three credible challengers to her and four if Ortensia doubles up. You wouldn't back anyone straight win to beat her but there are reasons why she might not run up to her form although connections seem very happy with her. Ascot can be a funny course and has been a place for course specialists since the track was relaid. Personally I still think Society Rock at 6-1 in the W/O market if it is softer than G/S (going stick around 7) EW 1/4 odds represents a credible bet. For all that if BC brings her Oz form where she beat Star Witness 4ls giving him 7lbs (she gets 3lbs off the colts here) she would win by a very comfortable distance.

[overthefence]

Des - definately was probably bit strong but was based on the following

Going at 3.45 today is good to,soft, soft in places

Saturday - expected to rain tonight (light)
Sunday - Afternoon and evening rain expected (light/moderate)
Monday - Evening rain Expected (light)
Tuesday - Afternoon rain expected (light)
Wednesday -no rain
Thursday- afternoon rain expected (light)
Friday - Afternoon & evening rain expected (moderate to heavy)

So the track will keep getting a mil or so of rain each day and thus not a lot of chance to dry out much ahead of Fridays expected heavy rains.

This is a local forecast and might miss the track though and as everything is subject to the met office not being able to get thecurrentnweather right let alone a week away.
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[budgie27]

Re F&G I wonder if there has been a flood of money given "The Lads" like a gamble it might be significant or is it just the bookies shortening him up to make their book nice and compact. Does he have a 50% chance of winning? For me I thought 15/8 well 2/1 represented value as I do think he has a better than 33% chance of winning given that his most credible opponent Opinion Poll, he has recorded relatively convincing victories against including in the Gold Cup last year by 3ls. The field may be a tad stronger this year imo and there are challengers in Colour Vision, OP, Memphis Ten, Saddlers Rock and Overturn. Would I want to back F&G at Evens no, is he the likeliest winner of the race (and let's assume the money has come from Co Tipperary) then yes he is. It's a race that has seen multiple winners over the years and a significant number of back to back winners (not surprising as it is quite a unique test). If Jamie Spencer can get him nice and settled and a decent position coming round the turn then he can win again. He won last year on GS, if memory serves me right he started the day around 3-1 and his SP was 11/8 so Evens doesn't seem to represent a value price. You can back EW in the race and maybe Opinon Poll at 5-1 could appeal to some but IF F&G were to be in the first 3 you are only playing for 2 places. One of the more interesting races at this stage for sure.

[budgie27]

No prices for the Ribblesdale yet and apparently Oaks runners have a poor record in the race but I am intrigued to see what price Shirocco Star will be in the race. She really impressed me in the Oaks and with Vow, The Fugue, Minidress (supplemented) and a number of AoB runners in the race I am quite excited to see what price she is when betting starts. I'd like to see a price of over 5-1. Was might have been a very good winner of the race at Epsom given her pedigree and sale price. SS beat The Fugue around a length in the Oaks and given she didn't settle until about 3 or 4 furlongs from the start and stayed on nicely at the end and she is a grand daughter on the dam side to Monsun and also on the sire side (may be better suited to softer ground than some of her rivals). She tops the OR ratings and is only 1lb down on RPR. Maybe the bookies will rate her on her form but I wonder if there will be a little leeway in her price being as she doesn't come from a "top" stable and I can see The Fugue getting massively hyped given W Buick's words on his blog on ATR ("we should have won") and the fact AoB will have at least one runner possibly two in Up and Kissed and add in Vow there is a good chance that SS will be 5th, 6th or 7th in the betting when her real chance might be closer to fav, 2nd or 3rd fav. Probably dropping down half a notch given this is a strong G2 - I like her profile and can be one of the better priced runners of the whole meeting. Momentary who beat SS might have been favoured by the 10f distance and SS looked more a stayer in that race.

[jonnyb1432]

Spoke to owner of Ortensia earlier and seemed very confident of winning the Kings Stand Stakes!

[turfline]

I have been running some of the Ascot races through the Ratings System Software, but there will be a few that will not run, but what a difference the going makes; if you could be sure of the going conditions for each day..you could rub your hands, but it does not work that way....looking forward to all the races, and i may go next friday, but will wait and see as i am going to a function on thursday evening, and i do tend to over-indulge.
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[nors]

Ryan Moore has 1 ride booked for Tuesday according to RP (NOT ALWAYS ACCURATE). This is Simenon in the Ascot Stakes trained by Willie Mullins. To my eyes this looks like a plan as Simenon has been performing well on the soft over hurdles and was a high class flat performer.

The horse last ran in the Northumberland Plate when going off too fast (a habit that would count against him at Ascot) but prior to this had run well in group and listed company.

However it is more the booking that catches my eye, the fact that the distance will be ok, any more rain will help (it will slow the others) and the horses form over jumps.

Obviously i have no idea of prices yet but anything in double figures and it would like a sporting wager to me.

[deswalker]

I will put my cards on the table on the Gold Cup market and say I think that the "money" for Fame and Glory has not come from the owners.

I backed him to win the Gold Cup last year at 3/1 early prices and win it he did after being backed fairly heavily on the day. However, when I thought he would scoot clear and win easily I felt he was reeled in a bit by the challengers and it was strongly my impression that his class got him through the race, not his supreme staying ability.

Bar Opinion Poll, the 2011 race looks very much to me like a Gold Cup in flux. Not many behind have franked the form and the challengers are stacked up this time; Opinion Poll again and Saddlers Rock obviously (who his trainer is very sweet on), but also others with high class form who look like they will stay every yard. Nothing that I've seen of F+G since that has made me think any differently of him so I was not interested at 5/2 and I certainly wouldn't touch it at 11/10.

Which brings me round to Colour Vision... I urge everyone to go back and re-watch his destruction of the Sagaro field. The race was only 6 runners and on the all-weather but it was a very strong field for a Group 3. This is probably due to the weather everywhere at the time. We have already seen the Derby 2nd come from an all-weather trial this year and it would be no surprise to me if these all-weather races at that time of year go on to work out very well because trainers at least knew what to expect. Red Cadeaux has done a very good job of making that race look strong indeed subsequently. He travelled adequately only at the rear of that race but when asked put the race to bed within a hundred yards.

For a horse to do that in a maiden at Kempton would be enough for people to sit up and take notice but to do that in that field... it was deeply impressive. I think the fact that he is only 6/1 is down to the fact that the race was on all-weather not turf but it is an incorrect assumption to say that the form is lesser for that (or that it is somehow "easier" to come through a field in that way on the artificial surface). He has form with the best on turf (staying on impressively over a bare 2m on Champions Day behind F+G) but looks for all the world to be much, much better this year.

I would have him favourite to be honest, or perhaps joint favourite with Fame on the form... but I do think that he will win the Gold Cup...

Note that I say that I think he will win.

Sorry for the essay but I thought I ought to put my opinion across.
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[martynmcglone12]

just wondering if someone could answer a question for me are the washroom adverts coming back for royal ascot ?

[aidanldrebin]

Interesting that Qatar Bloodstock have bought a share in Englishman ahead of the Coventry on Tuesday. Looks an exceptionally competitive race though, with nearly all of the most impressive maiden winners so far this year lining up in a 23-strong field. Windsor Castle Stakes has the same amount of runners.
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[The Executioner]

I'm looking forward to the bookmakers opening list of prices for the staying handicap on the first day ...... a couple of really interesting contenders catch my eye.