Monday 21/05/12 - Discussion Thread

deswalker

Little note for the opener at Windsor today...

David Evans has won this race for the last 2 years on the trot, with Nubar Boy last year and erm, well I can't remember the one before tbh! Anyway, he runs Scarlet Rocks in this who won a good claimer last back end at the track by clear lengths.

At the weights it is clearly between the first 4 in the betting; Polar Annie should ensure a good clip but is liable to be outpaced over 6f I would think, Falasteen is the best of these on the pick of his form and Kevin Ryan has a very good record in claimers and with the rare runners he sends down to Windsor but it has to be taken on trust that he is still up to his best, Efistorm comes from the other end of the spectrum as he is in top form and a course specialist but has a lb or two to find.

Interesting little race I think. Confused

_________________
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

deswalker · Posted: Mon May 21, 2012 9:41 am Post subject:

Little note for the second at Windsor;

Couple of interesting newcomers, not least Snow Angel who Timeform claim is half-sister to a 5f winner, Snowflake Dancer... not strictly true, as Dylan Thomas and Danehill Dancer are half brothers themselves that makes her 3/4 to a 5f debut winner. Before I lump on it is worth mentioning that the other one was a Jim Bolger trained 70k purchase and John Hills' 2yo aren't exactly flying out of the blocks this year (1 2yo runner so far, finished last!), but interesting I thought.

Also, Shrimpton needs a second look on breeding and whilst its noticeable that Channon sent a good filly to this race last year, Miss Lahar, it is also noticeable that it came third and left its form well behind a couple of starts later when upped in class.

Confused

_________________
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

mercer · Posted: Mon May 21, 2012 9:52 am Post subject:

Brian Meehans horse will take some stopping tonight,took evens and should have won on debut but faded the last few strides but winner looks useful but has we know Meehan horses always come on for a run

Form been franked with three winning in behind since notably Cay Verde who hacked up

deswalker · Posted: Mon May 21, 2012 10:01 am Post subject:

Note for the third;

Whilst I've been confidently taking on Hannon's 3yo at Windsor for the last season or so, I think it may be time to dump that one now. The powers that be at Windsor have decided that it is time to start honouring the Horsemens Group tariff rates, probably something to do with them being lower than the previously stated rates, and they had a good 3yo winner by the Thames last week in Golden Jubilee. That takes his tally this season to 1 from 4 so far, as opposed to 1 from 37 last year.

They run the well related 130k purchase Belle De Crecy in this who's half sister, The Miniver Rose, won a mile maiden on her second start for the yard before going on to an eventual Group 2 win over 15f.
_________________
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

The Executioner · Stallion Joined: 30 Mar 2008 Posts: 5592

3.50 Newton Abbot - I notice a move for Illegale from the small Glamorgan stable of Phillp Dando - tongue tie left off today and down a few pounds in the rating ; 20/1 Currently with Blue Sq and 18/1 in place ..... 14's being the lowest quote .... may be one to keep an eye on in a modest contest.

deswalker · Posted: Mon May 21, 2012 10:30 am Post subject:

Note for the last at Windsor;

Inexperienced 3yo's, 15 runners (bloody non-runners) and 5f indicate that the draw could be critical in the last at Windsor. Unfortunately there is no way of telling which way they are going to go on this Good, but drying, ground so I'm holding off an opinion in it until I have a better idea.

If they are all finishing off stands side or centrally (most likely I'd think) then the low draws will be favoured, if its far side still then look for high draws.

Win

_________________
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

adamlvll · Group 2 Class Joined: 09 Sep 2007 Posts: 161

Windsor 7:40

Harry Rocket was impressive on debut but far too short @ 4/6.

Personally fancy Graphic Guest and at 4/1 this is a very big price i feel, still holds some fancy entries and is one of Channons top 2 year olds this season.

Anyone think that Harry Rocket is really that much of a good thing? Or is Graphic being seriously underestimated at this price?

deswalker · Posted: Mon May 21, 2012 10:43 am Post subject:

It was a very good maiden on paper that Hairy Rocket won last week, with ease, and Hannon usually sends a good one to this race (Magic City though was beaten last year and turned out to be fair only). The performance of Miss Diva (2nd last week) earlier on in the card may help indicate how useful that one is.

Having said that I am also tempted by Graphic Quest, although I wouldn't read too much into the entry in a sales race as they will have done that anyway given that its limited access.
_________________
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

merlin · Legend Joined: 18 Apr 2006 Posts: 20093

My view is Hairy Rocket will be hard to beat and trends well for this type for Hannon at Windsor. The only thing that would put me off it would be a big drift.

LittleArch · Handicapper Joined: 21 Sep 2011 Posts: 24

I listened to Ken Pitterson's pre race paddock guide of the race Harry Rocket won and he said that both Hannon horses would come on for the run. This seems to have been the case with a lot of Hannon's this season so for Harry Rocket to turn in such a performance was even more creditable.

Timeform have rated Graphic Guest 104p and Harry Rocket 109p

I've gone for Miss Diva and Harry Rocket double

bully1981 · At Stud Joined: 17 Feb 2008 Posts: 3166

810 windsor any thoughts on First avenue. Rock solid form but looks to have been hammered by handicapper. 7lb claimer is off today also is that good or bad Confused

Thoughts please. One a day comp so will take a read Win

_________________
Watching those snakes !!!!!!!!

m0000ny · Group 1 Class Joined: 29 Feb 2012 Posts: 289

Can anyone shed some light on the newcomers in the 1st at Redcar, I'm guessing not much is expected of them looking at the odds. The 2 at the head of the market have both had runs, but neither look to have a solid chance imo, Hidden Coin finished ahead of Brazilian Clown at Thirsk and it seems the 1 piece of form from that race is keeping these 2 at the top of the market; the winner from the race, Mayfield Girl, came 2nd in a listed contest at York a few days ago. There is no other form to go by from that race, does this really make Hidden Coin the price he is? He did finish almost 4 lengths behind Mayfield so I'm thinking 1 of the newcomers can take this, just not sure which one as I'm pretty useless when assesing there chances Embarassed