Posted: Sun May 06, 2012 5:52 pm Post subject: Horseracing Selections - Monday 7/5/12
4.50 Kempton
Terdaad has clearly had his problems but remains a horse with room for improvement if he can stay sound ; has only had the four career starts to date and runs here off a nine pounds higher mark than his neck success over Electra Star last term. He's gone well on both his starts at the track and must be on most people's shortlists when assessing this race - however he does appear on the tight side at no better than 11/4 and as short as 2/1 in the early lists.Ashva is another to command respect with both his wins coming on the artificial surfaces but this represents a step up in class and he is likely to find things a bit tougher than in the past. At the other end of the market one that appeals as an Each Way prospect is the James Toller trained Loving Spirit - often highly tried last term ; he should find this company more to his liking on his all weather debut. As a result of a fruitless campaign in 2011 his official rating has fallen back in the last 12 months from a high of 98 to a mark here of 90 - one which should hopefully be within his compass. It's interesting to note also that his trainer has had a win from Rewarded ( and a walkover too ) over the same trip - so it is possibly that these two may be workmates - which sometimes can be beneficial in terms of performance. It's far from an easy looking contest but Loving Spirit appears somewhat generously priced @33/1 with Bet 365 and you have the beauty of Best Odds Guarantedd too - I will be amazed though if he drifts and think even the lowest of early quotes with Ladbrokes - William Hill & VC @16/1 are possibly slightly bigger than the SP may be........ For traders on the exchanges there is likely to be a very good chance of hedging at lower than the recommended price at sometime before the off. It's an Each Way play for me and Good Luck to those who agree.
Selection : Loving Spirit .... 5 Points Each Way @33/1 ( Bet 365 ) ; 25/1 is an acceptable alternative at Boylesports to anyone that may miss out
Joined: 17 Apr 2012
Posts: 18
Location: High Stool
Posted: Sun May 06, 2012 7:03 pm Post subject:
The last race at Bath tomorrow I have word for for the top horse Ginzan, told this filly got a pipe opener on the dirt last time out and has come on for that run and is all set to go well here. 5/1 with Bet365 at the moment.
Looks interesting on form and over double the price of Kens Girl who he finished
behind here over CD in this grade, looks on a good mark and capable of going
well fresh, when last fresh won on the bit, ground should be fine and interesing
for its new stable with Crowley a good booking, think it might be first flat winner
if it wins, running well will suffice though,
Joined: 05 Oct 2009
Posts: 103
Location: E.Kilbride
Posted: Sun May 06, 2012 8:00 pm Post subject:
3.50 KEMPTON MAWASEM
THIS 1 RAN AN EYECATCHING RACE IN THE WOOD DITTON (A RACE THATS ALREADY THREW UP A FEW WINNERS)RACED OUT THE BACK(STILL 2ND LAST AT 4 POLE)DIDNT GET THE CLEAREST OF RUNS BUT WHEN THE PENNY DROPPED MADE EYECATCHIN PROGRESS.STOUTEY HORSES WERE NOT RUNNIN WELL AT THE TIME N THIS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY COME ON FOR THE RUN..STRAIGHT SHOT ALSO RAN IN THE RACE N WAS ALSO OUT THE BACK N RAN ON TOO FINISH A CPL PLACES I FRONT O MY SELECTION BUT HE GOT A CLEARER RUN.. WOULDNT PUT ANY1 OFF BACKIN BOTH IN A REV F/C AT ATTRACTIVE ODDS
P.S THERES ANOTHER CPL O WOOD DITTON RUNNERS IN THE 4.20 RACE AT KEMP TOO THAT DESERVE A LOOK IF THESE 2 RUN WELL
The first division of the mile maiden on the card looks an above average race for the grade with a few of these showing plenty of promise first time out, including a trio that debuted at the Craven meeting last month, though there are also some interesting newcomers to add further interest in a race won in recent times by the likes of Lucarno, Khateeb, Rainbow Peak and Eton Forever (the last named beating the smart Afsare).
The selection is a son of Street Cry who is a half brother to 7f 2yo debut winner North East Corner out of a 7f 2yo debut winner who was a full sister to Cheveley Park Stakes winner Magical Romance and closely related to English/Irish/Yorkshire Oaks heroine Alexandrova, 1m 2yo winner/Derby third Masterofthehorse, dual 12f 3yo winner Clearwater Bay and 10f Flat/2m hurdle winner Washington Irving out of a half sister to the dam of high-class middle distance performers Lion Sands and Pongee. This well-bred 375,000gns purchase is trained by Sir Michael Stoute and debuted in the 1m Wood Ditton Stakes at Newmarket's Craven meeting last month, going off an unfancied 25/1 chance (owner's second string); one of three from this stable); broke on terms from his wide draw but forfeited ground by switching in behind runners to drop in at the back of the field, still on the bridle three furlongs from home but with nowhere to go until switched well over a furlong out and keeping on stylishly under very considerate handling to pass several rivals late and finish ninth behind Mariner's Cross (beaten 9 lengths). His eventual finishing position doesn't begin to tell the story of the promise this colt showed on debut, travelling better than most in between the three and two furlongs markers but having a wall of horses in front of him and still well off the pace, switched right over a furlong out and making sustained progress to the line under hand riding. The winner came out and was only narrowly beaten at Listed level at the weekend, and both the third (admittedly at long odds on) and eleventh won last week, so the form of a race that in recent years has proved weak looks strong so far. He comes from a stable that has made a slow start to the current season (hadn't sent out a winner at the time of this colt's debut), so there is plenty of reason to expect significant improvement from this well-connected son of Street Cry; choice of owner's retained jockey here, and it wouldn't be at all surprising to see this colt fully confirm the immense promise of his debut run and get off the mark at the second time of asking.
The William Haggas trained Nine Realms is a son of Green Desert who is closely related to the yard's very smart 7f-1m winner (including at Group 1 level) Aqlaam (by Oasis Dream) and a half brother to 12-15f winner Curacao, out of an unraced half sister to the smart and tough stayer Persian Punch, very useful 10-12f winner (including at Listed level) Classic Punch and 10-12f Flat/2m hurdle winner Bahamas. This nicely bred colt made his debut outing in a 7f maiden at Newmarket's Craven meeting last month, sent off an unfancied 25/1 chance beforehand; raced well off the pace at the rear of the field, making headway from over two furlongs out and staying on strongly on the outer throughout the final furlong to take second close home behind impressive winning fellow newcomer Cogito, going down by 2¾ lengths. It was a massively eyecatching debut performance from this close relation of Aqlaam, given a fair bit to do from a hold up position but staying on well throughout the final furlong under mainly hands and heels riding, also showing signs of inexperience as he made up the ground. The race itself didn't look the strongest of maidens contested at the track (fourth and fifth have been well beaten since in smaller races), but this colt revealed himself to be potentially above average all the same on that occasion and has since been put in the St James's Palace Stakes; ought to stay another furlong on the evidence of that debut performance, and it would be surprising if this son of Green Desert wasn't heavily involved at the business end of matters here.
The Mahmood Al Zarooni trained Ihtifal is a daughter of Dansili who is a half sister to smart triple 6f 2yo winner (including at Listed level) Floristry, 6-7f 3yo winner Barq and 7-10f winner Old Romney, out of a once-raced 7f 2yo winner who was a half sister to Dante winner/Derby third Carlton House, high-class French/UAE stayer Friston Forest, 7f-1m winner Flawed Genius and 5f 2yo winner Secret Pride out of Sun Chariot winner Talented. This well-bred filly made her debut outing in a course and distance fillies' maiden 12 days ago, for which she was sent off a not overly fancied 10/1 chance; tracked the leader until taking over going nicely well over two furlongs from home and still led entering the final furlong, soon headed by eventual winner Dank but sticking to her task well as the pair came clear, going down by just a neck at the line. It was a very promising first run from this daughter of Dansili, losing out only to a previously experienced rival who had contested at a grade above maiden company when finishing second on her debut, and the pair were nicely clear of another that had shown plenty first time out. She probably sets the standard on that run, but as is the case with many first time up from this stable she knew her job very well and now faces one or two colts that shaped with plenty of promise themselves on debut; true to say that a repeat of her debut effort could well see her involved nevertheless, but one or two others appear to have scope for that bit more improvement; tongue tied once again.
The Roger Charlton trained Alvitude is a US-bred son of Aptitude who is a half brother to smart 8-11f winner (including at Listed level) Acrobatic, very useful 9-10f winner Exterior (later placed at Grade 2/3 level in the US), Listed placed 1m 3yo winner Verbose (later dam of the high-class 7f 2yo winner Thousand Words) and 10-12f Flat/dual 2m hurdle/very useful dual 2m chase winner (including at Listed level) Safari Journey, out of an unraced half sister to smart miler Private Line and high-class juvenile Most Precious. This gelding made his one and only start at two in a 7f maiden at Newbury last July, for which he was sent off an unconsidered 33/1 chance; broke awkwardly and raced towards the rear of the field, ridden over two furlongs out and keeping on inside the final furlong without ever proving able to make an impact on the principals, coming home in seventh behind Ektihaam (beaten 11 lengths). He hinted that there was certainly some ability there, and five of the six that finished ahead of him on that occasion all went on to win since and included the likes of Martin Chuzzlewit and Producer; absence since and subsequent gelding raises some concerns and he does return in what looks an above average race of its type, but half brother Acrobatic was a most progressive sort once switching to this surface for these connections and interesting to see how he goes on his return to action.
The Brian Meehan trained Straight Shot is a son of Manduro who is the sixth foal (previous five foals either unraced or achieved very little in their brief racing careers) of a 7f Group 3 winner in Australia who was the daughter of a smart juvenile half sister to Irish Champion/Nassau winner Park Express, later dam of top-class 2yo/2000 Guineas/Derby/Champion Stakes winner New Approach and top-class sprinter Shinko Forest. This gelding made his debut outing in the Wood Ditton at Newmarket last month, going off an unfancied 40/1 chance (wore a tongue-strap); raced in midfield until outpaced and losing his place passing halfway, ridden and making headway from two furlongs out, continuing to stay on for pressure inside the final furlong to eventually finish sixth behind Mariner's Cross (beaten 7½ lengths). He certainly shaped as though having a future, caught slightly flat footed passing halfway but rallying well and keeping on in good style from the two furlong market despite clear signs of greenness, though he wasn't exactly spared a hard race in order to make ground inside the final furlong. His yard's newcomers always improve plenty for their first run and their representative here does hold Mawasem on their meeting last month; however, that rival finished only a length or so behind this colt and suffered an interrupted passage and was given a very easy time in comparison to this gelding, so it remains to be seen whether he can confirm the placings and improve as much as both that rival and one or two others in the field.
The John Gosden trained Qaadira is a daughter of Mr Greeley who is the first foal of a high-class UK/US 7-10f winner (including at Grade 2 level) who was closely related to smart 10f 3yo winner Fatanah (Listed placed) and a half sister to smart miler Oriental Fashion out of a very useful 8-10f winner who was a full sister to the dam of 1000 Guineas/Coronation winner Ghanaati and top-class middle distance performer Nayef and a half sister to top-class middle distance performer Nashwan and very smart middle distance performer Unfuwain. This smartly bred filly made her debut outing in a 7f maiden at Yarmouth last October, going off a very well fancied 5/1 chance; broke slowly but recovered quickly to race in mid-division, travelling nicely and making good progress over two furlongs out, shaken up and running green well over a furlong out and not knocked about as the front two asserted inside the final furlong, coming home in third behind the useful Rewarded (beaten 5¾ lengths). However, she failed miserably to build on that debut promise and looked thoroughly ungenuine when reappearing in a hood at Newmarket last month for a 7f fillies' maiden; raced lazily throughout and was never in contention at any stage of the race, tailing off to eventually finish last of those that completed (beaten 40 lengths). The hood she wore on that occasion is left off now but she comes here with an enormous amount to improve after that lethargic display; unsurprisingly passed over by Paul Hanagan in favour of Mawasem.
The Jeremy Noseda trained Whispering Warror is a son of Oasis Dream who is a half brother to useful dual 7f winner Meezaan out of a Listed placed 7f 2yo winner who was a half sister to high-class Irish/HK 6-9f winner (including at Grade 3/Listed level) Perfect Champion (formerly known as Steinbeck), 7f 2yo winner Corsicanrun, family of Fillies' Mile/Coronation/Nassau winner Nannina. This colt made his debut in a 6f maiden here at the end of last year, for which he was sent off a largely ignored 9/1 chance; broke slowly and raced towards the rear of the six-runner field, ridden and outpaced over two furlongs out but making headway approaching the final furlong and continuing to keep on inside the final furlong as he came home in fourth behind Hurry Up George (beaten 8¾ lengths). He shaped as though not totally devoid of ability, outpaced and showing some signs of inexperience as the tempo lifted before coming home to good effect from over a furlong out to finish fourth; needs to improve a fair bit on that to feature in what looks to be a much stronger race, but the extra two furlongs on offer here ought to suit on the evidence of that debut performance and the booking of Jamie Spencer looks interesting (7-37 for this stable in recent seasons).
There are a quartet of newcomers in the field and the most interesting of them is the William Knight trained Hoonose, a gelded son of Cadeaux Genereux who is a half brother to 5-7f winner Roodle out of a useful 5-7f winner (Listed placed) who was a half sister to one-time useful 6-7f winner Gallagher (placed at Group 2 level at two), useful UK/UAE 7-10f winner Quick Wit, multiple 6-7f winner Averoo, 6f 2yo debut winner Cockney Dancer and 7-10f Flat (including on debut)/2m hurdle winner Roodolph, out of a 5-6f 2yo winner who was a half sister to Gimcrack winner Bannister. This gelding sold for 48,000gns as a yearling at auction and is the second foal of a useful half sister to several winners including smart sprinting juvenile Gallagher and very useful handicapper Quick Wit; however, it is disconcerting to see one bred for speed debut over 1m, and the application of cheekpieces and a tongue tie on debut is also very offputting; stable in very good form of late but aren't renowned for their success with winning newcomers and this gelding is best watched on debut in what looks an above average contest. _________________ Dark Horses 2013 - Flat
Straight Shot - 10/1 NAP
Ran a good race in the Wood Ditton at Newmarket on his first start. Running on well in the closing stages. It's very difficult to come from behind on soft ground at Newmarket so the fact he ran on well in the closing stages was promising. Meehan's runners tend to come on a lot for their first run and given the usual improvement they make should run very close today, at a nice price. He was 16s this morning which was far too big, has been backed into 8-10/1 now but to me is still good value.
2:25 - Beverley - RELIGHT MY FIRE EW
"Not alot of form to go on here in the first race at beverley with mostly newcomers. Fly Fisher sets the standard after a promising debut effort lto. Was 3rd, 2 1/2 lengths behind Run Fat Lass run. (thats the best name ive seen for a horse, brilliant.) Will improve but there could be one or two of these newcomers getting the better of that one. Indian Jade could go well but my vote is form RELIGHT MY FIRE. This one is a much bigger price than i expected. Pedigree suggests that this 5f will be ideal for now and yard can ready a first time out winner. David Allen is on board which is a plus. EW chance at least. "
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