Thursday Selections 3/5/12

[The Executioner]

6.10 Brighton


A trappy little h'cap run over a shade under 7 furlongs with Katmai River - Goal & Hereford Boy close at the head of the market - all three are in reasonable form and their chances must be respected. However further down the lists is where I'm going for my pick ; that being the Iceman gelding Arctic Mirage trained by Michael Blanchard. Not the most consistant of performers with just the one win in 20 starts ( four other placings ) Arctic Mirage will have underfoot conditions to suit in this contest and despite finishing midfield last time out he was only beaten around 3 1/2L over an inadequate looking even six furlongs trip - this extra couple of hundred yards shouls suit. After some moderate efforts his official rating has taken a tumble from 76 to one of 60 here and hopefully he won't be too inconvenienced from running from a pound ' wrong ' ; IF putting his best effort in then to me the 12/1 quote looks considerably generous - that's the big question IF ; I'm certainly prepared to take that chance and a fair Each Way bet appears the order of the day for me.


Selection : Arctic Mirage ...... 4 Points Each Way ( BOG ) @12/1 VC ..... Good Luck If You Play

[woody1991]

7.30 tiperrary. I think rockzanda will run a good race dont know what price it will be yet but will be a big price from a stable in flying form at the moment (T.stack) good Each Way bet.

[tg91pol]

Bloodsweatandtears is a horse who I've followed since his debut and thankfully I've managed to avoid betting on this frustrating sort thus far but today I'm willing to take a risk. This is a moderate race even for the grade where few make much appeal and with the Knight yard in such could form it may pay to side with him on this occasion. He ran at Leicester on his comeback but cut little ice finishing midfield to the inform Flying Applause. He has since been gelded and should improve for that and also should come on for his reappearance run. He has form on this type of ground judging on his better efforts last year. Hip Hip Hooray was slightly unfortunate not to finish closer last week here but I'm siding with Bloodsweetandtears here on a career low mark.

SELECTION: BLOODSWEATANDTEARS - 7.40 BRIGHTON - 2PT WIN - 5/1 Bet365/Paddy Power

In the 5.40, at the time of typing this, the five runners who are singles figures in the betting, Baby Driver, Yakama, Cristaliyev, Jemimaville and Alpha Tauri have 1 win between them on turf and are all exposed so it is definitely worth finding something at a bigger price. The one that catches the eye is the Anthony Middleton trained Hand Painted. While the three runs so far in 2012 have been uninspiring, there are excuses for all three and his record here at Brighton is exceptional for this grade and hopefully a return to one of his favourite tracks brings around a revival. His form figures here at Brighton read 4,1,1,5,2,3, finishing no more than 4 lengths behind the winner on each time he was beaten and they were all in a stronger grade than this. This is not a race to get heavily involved in with a question mark over just about every runner, but given his record at Brighton it's hard to ignore at the current prices.

SELECTION: HAND PAINTED - 5.40 BRIGHTON - 1PT Each Way - 20/1 Bet365

[deliusmiff]

Rise To Glory 4.30 Muss-S Harris 7/2 Unp

This horse 1st came to my attention when running 5th to All About You at Kempton on a mark off 45. Came through to challenge 1f out with the winner but was outpaced and weakened into 5th. All Right Now(J Butler), must have been thrown in that day as followed up winning by 6 lengths off 3lbs higher and is now rated 65. A nose in front of Rise to glory was Gorgeous Goblin another rapidly improving horse who has since won at Sthwell off 65 (16lb)higher!
Rise to Glory just got touched off nto over 6fs at Wolver but the step up to 7fs has really suited this horse. Switched to turf on soft going and 3lbs out of the h'cap won easily staying on strongly off 51, back in 6th 5 lengths behind was Steel Stockholder who got within a hd of The Osteopath nto. Followed up with another easy win at Kempton off 55. Has another 6lb penalty to shoulder today and i'll be dissapointed if this improving Kings Best colt can't get the hat trick today.

[RomanyKing]

4:10 - Lingfield - Oneiric

Oneiric really caught my eye last time out, he came flying home in the final furlong at Lingfield. The wire came too soon though and he had to settle for 2nd place.

Up in trip today to 2m back at Lingfield, this should be more than enough extra track to get himself a strong lead at the business end. The right timing will be needed for sure, we don't want him to burn out too soon. But looks an improver and one I'll be backing today. Currently 5/1
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[chimaira]

3:10 Limerick - Le King Beau

Won his last 3 in claimers, Small field of horses in this race. Form is there, with wins and places in his last 6 runs, C + D winner, Can get up here and win this race, if going suits. Youngest in the field and running at lowest weight

Currently 5/1

[deliusmiff]

Mercers Row N Wilson 9/2 @ Sandwith G Foster 12/1 5.00Muss.1st@3rd

Having put Boucher Garcon in the alerts recently i'm a bit loath to oppose him but although he has run well in defeat has risen sharply in the weights, and hasn't been able to get home in the very soft ground, being caught close home. Logically however it is difficult to see him confirming the form with these 2 on 15lbs worse terms, particularly with Mercers Row who got within 1length of him and had a troubled run. Mercers Row looks like he needs a strongly run 5 fs as his other best runs have been at Beverley and is sure to get it here.
Sandwith has also been running very consistantly this year on the AW at Southwell and has finished just behind some improved performers in First in Command, Lesleys Choice, Argentine and Twice Red who have won 7 races and umpeen 2nds between them this year. Runs from a 2lb lower mark on turf and has won here a few times, has 3 lengths to make up on Mercers Row but looks to be an EW alternative.

[oscarwolfe]

LINGFIELD 4.40 ... SEDGEWICK E/W @ 33/1

Silvestre de Sousa with 12 wins and 30 places already this season, has been up once previously for Shaun Harris when in the Carlisle Bell Consolation race in 2010 finished a staying on 3rd place on Sedgewick.

Sedgewick has ran in a few Class3-4 H/caps in 2010 winning a 65-79 contest at York that Year off this mark

Sedgewick won his only start at this trip here from 2 runs at Lingfield when with Ian Williams, when he was only once out the placings having won 5 and placed 3 times from 9 runs for the trainer.

Claimed from the yard having finished 3rd over 12fl here on final run for Williams when rated 10lb higher than today, and apart from first 2 runs at Southwell for Harris, has ran on turf since then and we could see a much improved run from those efforts now back on Polytrack.

Only one outing last season and his return in a Gentleman Amateur Riders' race has saw his mark drop another 3lb.

Not particularly thrown in but has won 5-14 on the A/W and has won twice as many races over this distance than the rest of the field together.

Some E/W value at the price, even though he could win this from this mark if return to Polytrack see's the improvement I anticipate. "
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Oscarwolfe