HORSE RACING FRIDAY - DISCUSSION

[jmstocka]

Nelix

2yo maiden with 3 that have run and 3 from yards capable of getting one ready on debut.

Think the bookies would wait to see how the exchanges are going before pricing up, in case they get caught out.

I like the look of LETSTALKABOUTMONEY to upset the front two, interesting jockey booking, with Jim Crowley

[RentonT]

Morning guys,
I have posted Theatre Guide 20/1 Each Way in the selections thread. Obviously Darlan will take some beating in what should be an easier race for him.

18/1 is the best you can get currently.

[jaw102]

Notice LYRIC ACE is out again today. Dutch bet looks the best bet, but would like to think it would of come on for his outing lto when it ran very green.
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[paultoma]

Any views on Galileo colt Ernest Hemingway on debut at Dundalk 7.15? Have a nagging doubt that this has been tipped up as one to follow and a very precocious type! Willing to have a good go at 5/2 if anyone can confirm this "memory". O'brien combo for jp magnier and entries in both UK and Irish derbies?

[harbinger10]

morning everyone just a thought on this 3.40 at aintree today am looking at henderson's runner bai zhu barry said he couldnt do the weight on this one and felix takes the mount interesting he should say this and whats more interesting is that hugh taylor reckons he could have been aimed at this one
Henderson was certainly mentioning the race as likely to suit him in early-season stable tours. and his last race may of been a prep race for this has seen some support this morning 25/1 into 16/1 now am going to have a little ew double with orsippus mrs smiths horse today if anyone has anyfurther thought on this one i would like to hear them please thanks
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[InsideMan]

Des made a good point yesterday about a Nicholls runner that had run well at Cheltenham when the stable were underperforming and that one went on to win yesterday at tasty odds of 6/1. I reckon you could include PROSPECT WELLS into that category too (5th in the Supreme Novices just 2 lengths behind the winner) and he should run a massive race today in the 2.00 Aintree at odds of 4/1,

oh and the stable couldn't be in better form right now

[aidanldrebin]

[RentonT]

Fair point and I did read that.

My view is that it is a big ask for prospect wells who imo ran well above expectation at cheltenham to come out today and reverse the form with Darlan who at cheltenham was perhaps left with too much to do at the end of the race. And I think at the prices I would rather side with Darlan over Prospect wells.

Theatre Guide is screaming value.

I fancy Nicholls to win with Silvinciaco Conti however to keep the stable form going

[RomanyKing]

A laugh for Friday...Alan Partridge at the races http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7rTk8Vihe0
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[Flat Cap and Whippet]

I think Hazy Tom represents some real value in the 4.50 at Aintreee based on his beating of Its A Gimme off level weights at this track on good ground back in October on both their hurdling debuts. The trainer has said he has not liked the softer ground on subsequent runs, so the better ground will suit, and it is possible to write off his Cheltenham run as a track issue.

He looked very smart when winning his 2 bumpers and his first 2 hurdle races, the second easily beating Sea of Thunder who is now rated 145.

A very competitive race but if Its A Gimme is around 4/1 - 9/2 then the 20/1 - 22/1 on Hazy Tom represents value.

[InsideMan]

Not sure Prospect Wells did run above expections though and even if he did the form was there for all to see

I think people were underrating him in the market that day when he was available at 20/1 in the morning of the race (backed into an SP of 14/1), but he had the form there and that run in the Ladbroke hurdle when he was giving weight away to most of his rivals looks like a big run on the books when you reflect back on it

He did well to run as well as he did at Cheltenham given the stable's form at that time and this Aintree festival is surely Nicholls' for the taking now (Nicholls is 4/6 in the top trainer market), his stable have been running at a 50% SR in the past 14 days and it can only get better today

also Cinders and Ashes was just the better horse on the day imo and Darlan did well to finish second but I don't think he would have won the race as the winner was just too good on the day, he was going away at the finish too

if anything Prospect Wells was the one who was left with too much to do, he was gaining on them at the line and he definitely didn't have the best of passages in that race

PW has to be the bet at 4/1 against Darlan's 13/8, they are more closely matched than the market is suggesting

[merlin]

The 2.00 Aintree looks a minefield I think. At first glance, DARLAN looks a banker, but then I'm sure the bookies feel the same (hmmm ). I'm not saying it won't go and hack-up, I started the day pondering whether it's worth a decent bet on it, but now I'm trying to decide what's going to beat it..... and the race is full of 'what if's'....

Prospect Wells: Ran a cracker and was possibly staying on strongest of all in the Supreme Novices; ground should suit today.

Agent Archie: Was the 'donkey' for Cinders and Ashes and no horse is going to make all in the Supremes and stay the hill (I doubt?). Ran well and has ability...and can run to try and win today.

Vulcanite: Travelled well until its legs turned to custard as it hit the infamous Cheltenham hill. Could Aintree suit this one better?

Right Step: Decent 90 rated flat horse who won hands and heels on its hurdling debut, off the back of a long break from the flat. It beat 'nothing' but this one could be the race's dark horse.

I've not mentioned Captain Conan and Oscara Dara, since I just don't fancy them and anything else in the race, I'd be throwing pins at.

Decisions decisions.... but I fancy something to beat Darlan.