Thurs. 12th. April Horseracing Discussion.

drogerson · Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:39 am Post subject:

Re Big Bucks, I can't find a single reason to not back him even at those odds.

He's won his last 16 hurdles, including the last 15 being Grade 1 or Grade 2's.
He's won the Graded races by a total of 63 lengths which give him an average win distance by 4.2 lengths.

At the finish of his races he's the one travelling best, strongest and easiest. There's no tactic he hasn't raced against and beaten with a degree of ease.
He's won on Heavy, Soft, Good-to-Soft and Good Ground.
4 wins from 4 runs at this track all in this race.
Only fallen once over hurdles from 29 starts and that was as a 3 year old novice.
He can officially run 13lbs worse than he's capable of and still theoretically win this race.

I just can't see any of his rivals putting in a performance to even beat a substandard Big Bucks, and for me you're basically backing Big Bucks not to fall.

Stats for that are 1 in 29 hurdles (3.44%) or 2 in 36 career starts (5.5%). Bear in mind statistically less than 5% of horses fall, so the chance of him falling in general is slim, coupled with the fact he's an excellent jumper would give him even less a chance of falling.
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deswalker · Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:45 am Post subject:

Problem is drog, despite appearances to the contrary, Bucks is still just a horse not a machine... I can't see the point of backing him at 1/5 even as part of an accumulator (or is that particularly as part of an accumulator?)

Confused

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blueboy68 · Legend Joined: 22 Aug 2010 Posts: 10591

Someone just had 500,000,00 on him Laughing

I'd buy my own racehorse instead
of doing that Shocked

cwight · At Stud Joined: 21 Jun 2009 Posts: 2690

Betfair have just given me an offer on the first bet I place at Aintree, for up to £50 and if it loses they will give me the £50 back. Gotta be Big Bucks surely. Sure at those odds I'll only make £10, but if it loses I get my stake back. Am I missing something. Anyone else get this offer. It has to be the first bet. Is there a better option for the bet?

TopTipsterUK · At Stud Joined: 03 Apr 2008 Posts: 2560 Location: England

blueboy68 · Legend Joined: 22 Aug 2010 Posts: 10591

If it was me I'd stick it on Al Ferof, you will only win £10, If you stuck it on
Al Ferof it would be like having the measly £10 on 4/1 for Al Ferof,
Al Ferof should win if he doesn't make a mistake, the small field and longer
trip are both +'s imo, Pepite Rose has gone up 15lb has to find 10lb and Al Ferof is propbably
still 4lb well in, thats a massive 29lb and gets just 7lb allowance,
Forget Al Ferofs last run as you can't make a mistake like that at speed against
a horse like SS,
His run before was only his 3rd chase start against a smart seasoned chaser
who won off 166 and the second Finians Rainbow took a Grade 1 off 164 next
time now rated 173, Al Ferof made mistakes late on so that was a cracking effort,

he jumps he wins imo

cwight · At Stud Joined: 21 Jun 2009 Posts: 2690

Ok done Hunt Ball...

TopTipsterUK · At Stud Joined: 03 Apr 2008 Posts: 2560 Location: England

InsideMan · Stallion Joined: 12 Dec 2009 Posts: 8678

InsideMan · Stallion Joined: 12 Dec 2009 Posts: 8678

budgie27 · At Stud Joined: 10 Mar 2009 Posts: 3240

Chances are Big Bucks will improve today so if Smad Place is his main opposition (think Poungach might follow him home) then he already has say 9+ lengths in hand of the field with improvement to come (stable in poor form at Chelts)

mooster100 · Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 12:41 pm Post subject:

I think that Poungach will follow his stable mate home in the opener at Aintree. Big Bucks looks a nailed on NAP for the three day meeting though Poungach is 9/2 W/O the favourite; a decent looking bet i feel as there's still room for improvement having had just the five runs.