HORSE RACING WEDNESDAY - DISCUSSION

[jamiess09]

I fancy two at Dundalk tomorrow, every one will have a different opinion in the first race on the card and cases could be made for several but I just like the look of Pencil Hill who looks extremely well handicapped and has a very good draw to make use of his stamina tomorrow.. Tracey Collins in excellent form aswell and does really well at the track with her runners..

Naked Cowboy should be a winner a couple of races after that in what looks a poor race.. Not much stand outs in the field and he is well handicapped and a winner waiting to happen.. I like that Murtagh has been booked and im expecting a massive run.. Barry Connell has hung on to him despite flopping over obstacles

6.20 Dun and 7.20 Dun respectively, best of luck all and have a good day with your other punts!

[merlin]

I'm taking on the mighty Zipster tomorrow and I'm sure I will therefore be taking on half of the forum, since I really fancy Baby Dottie in the 4.30 Lingfield (reasoning in selection thread) - pretty sweet on this one's chances, considering it @14 exchanges tonight (I would like to see this smashed-up into less than 10-1 to be confident though). But if it has a kick in reserve (travelled very nicely when not made use if LTO), dropped a few lbs with a better jockey booked, then this will go very, very well I feel.

I also see that Mr Butler has two out tomorrow for those who like doubling-up when a gambling stable has multiple runners out;

4Apr12 4:00 The Catenian LINGFIELD

4Apr12 7:30 Douze Points WOLVERHAMPTON

The Catenian went in a few notebooks last time out, while the latter horse is going to be a pretty short price to follow-up its recent win.

Good luck tomorrow.... wrap-up warm too, Summer is over.

[ExoticDancer]

14.30 Lingfield

I can't believe the price on Calypso Magic in this. It's strange it is the outsider of the 4 horse race. I think he was run at the wrong distance for the last year. He has performed well only to weaken at the end so this drop to 7f is ideal. The last time he ran at 7f he finished second to a horse rated in the 100s. He has also run in a race where Hazzard County finished behind him and although this is a claimer race they are running at the same weight difference.
I am hoping they'll run her at the front as this would be ideal considering Hazzard County should be a too late catcher at odds on silly price.
I am not too keen on the other two in the race. Hinton Admiral seems a bit not at the same class as these and although he loves the track I think the stepup in trip and current mark are not appealing.
Barolo Top has some creditable efforts in higher up company but I am not sure the stepup in trip is ideal. I don't know too much about breeding so I could be wrong.

Selection:
Calypso Magic
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The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits

[ExoticDancer]

16.00 Lingfield

Mmm, difficult race but after looking through the form of all of these 11 runners I think some of them have concerns over the trip, others not well handicapped for this race so it looks a bit of a mess.
There is a horse called Pefect shot that is super well handicapped based on form. 6 months ago this horse had a mark of over 80 and is now running of 58. He was tried at shorter distances mostly since he came from a break last December. It's back to a winning trip now and the easiest race so far in months. Looks like a tasty 20/1 e/w price. The only concern is it does look out of form but the race is weaker and if any ability left then it should have every chance.
The one I actually like in the race the most is Talbot Green. This is a very lightly raced horse and is dropped to a more suitable company now. He ran really well last two times at the track at shorter distance suggesting the up in trip is desired.
The other two I want to mention in the same race are Galiotto who would be my selection if the above two donkeys weren't in the same race. Eyecatching jockey booking too and has best chance of many of the others considering they may not stay the trip.
Henry Holmes is well at the weights and if taking the lead it will be dangerous to pass by.

Selection:Talbot Green
Long Shot:Perfect Shot
_________________
The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits

[ExoticDancer]

15.30 Lingfield

To be honest, the only ones that on paper look to be staying this trip is Waterloo Dock and Toms River Tess.
Toms River Tess ran a great race last time out and I wish this was a handicap race since he is very well handicapped. Anyway, although Waterloo Dock should win based on recent efforts I think Tims River Tess is worth a small bet.

Selection: Waterloo Dock
Long shot: Toms River Tess 16/1
_________________
The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits

[Yorksred]

Full of snow here in Bradford
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You always pass failure on the way to success.

[Wallsendlad]

Yorksred

Full of snow here in Bradford



Good job they don't have racing there then

[deswalker]

Baby Dottie in for support merlin...
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"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

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[merlin]

Looks encouraging Des @8 now and could dip under soon perhaps Going to go 6's now... gamble is on and all I can do now is hope. Good luck today all.

[deswalker]

This is a weak contest, if the horse is anywhere near its best its bound to go close.

I'm on as well.
_________________
"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

[ExoticDancer]

16.30 Lingfield

There are 3 well handicpped horses in this race with similar profiles that have the right and should go close in this race.
First one is Lesley's Choice trained by Paul Rich who also trained the progressive Den's Machine. He is running of career low mark of 60 and came close second to winning last time of the same mark. The last few races can be discarded as he was either tried at longer distances he doesn't stay or the opposition was too strong, rated in the 80s. He really should come close in this race, trainer is also in form.
Baby Dottie has a similar profile, running now of a career lowest mark. She has run with credit in harder races and this is way easier. My concern about her is that she maybe running on too late to catch the winner as she is ideally suited by a longer trip and this is her first 5f race in her career.
The one that I have come across a few times now looking at form of other horses previously is Prize Point in the same race. He is running, again as previous too of a career lowest mark of 47. Since joining the new yard he has been tried at longer distances which he doesn't stay only to fade in the last furlong. The trainer has dropped him finally to a 5f race which was exactly what I was thinking he needs the last time he ran and he can front run these now before they realize where it came from. I think 25/1 is a fair value and I would be disappointed if he doesn't at least place.
And Sherjawy is waited to beat Chjimes and Dorothy's Dancing so it's a hard choice.

Selection: Prize Point
Dangers: Lesley's choice
_________________
The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits

[beepee1984]

I decided to follow MOB and place a bet on American Cricket and when just checking the prices now noticed the Fav had been WD, so I checked the odds history to see how much the rule 4 was and in a minute after SportingBet took it out the betting both SkyBet and 888Sport (or Blue Square) had cut the odds to increase the rule 4 by 5p. It doesn't affect me as I didn't place my bet with either of these firms. But surely that is just wrong :x Has anyone ever tried to talk to these firms when they do this, because I would be very interested to know the excuse.