2012 Grand National

judoman · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 09 Sep 2009 Posts: 2319

that's right, I had about half of them in my head - cheers

with 82 runners to do it is quite a lot of work at this stage Laughing

The Executioner · Stallion Joined: 30 Mar 2008 Posts: 5589

judoman · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 09 Sep 2009 Posts: 2319

yes Nick not Mick - just a typo

The Executioner · Stallion Joined: 30 Mar 2008 Posts: 5589

I thought Giles Cross ran a very decent race in the Welsh National and jumped better in the main than Le Beau Bai - he is another that will benefit from soft going and he will stay & stay ; he is lightly raced for a 10yo with only 15 career starts and is arguably still open to a bit of improvement - he should not be dismissed if conditions are in his favour.
On His Own is an interesting entry as too is Hold On Julio and both horses will be worth keeping an eye on in the lead up to the big race.

judoman · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 09 Sep 2009 Posts: 2319

Hold on Julio is a novice isn't he? That's a major negative for me

The Executioner · Stallion Joined: 30 Mar 2008 Posts: 5589

He's very lightly raced for a 9yo with only 5 races under rules Judoman ; he has also had a further 6 starts in point to points ; he is on a sharp upward curve this season after winning two handicap chases at Sandown with plenty of authority and has stacks of ability.

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home_popup.sd?horse_id=720523#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

judoman · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 09 Sep 2009 Posts: 2319

I know his form but I will never back a novice in the National

bdodarts · Group 1 Class Joined: 13 Jan 2012 Posts: 264

paul nicholls has never won the race, he says the champion hdl is the one in which he wants to win but i think it's this one;

he runs;

niche market & neptune collonges
33&66/1 respectively

budgie27 · At Stud Joined: 10 Mar 2009 Posts: 3240

Re age stats I was taking mine from 1970 as I would say this is the modern era for the race it is an arbitrary line:

8 - 5
9 - 12
10 - 10
11 - 7
12 - 6

So you are right 11 year olds have the third most likely statistical chance of winning although 9 and 10 year olds have dominated with more than 50% of the overall winners. So it's that age group I would tend to look to first.

Micko70 · Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 9:04 pm Post subject:

How about these stats

In the past 6 years, ALL 24 places were taken by horses aged between 8 & 11

7 of the last 10 winners were allotted weights between 10-05 & 10-12 when the weights were officially announced (although they might have carried more due to non runners)

9 of last 10 winners were priced between 25/1 and 40/1 at publication of weights

So, we should be looking for a horse weighted between 10-05 & 10-12 that's priced between 25/1 & 40/1
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Micko70 · Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2012 9:34 pm Post subject:

A horse that i am interested in, depending on his weight is ALFA BEAT, trained in Ireland by JJ (Shark) Hanlon, he won the Kerry National in September beating some decent horses.

He ran in the 4 miler @ Cheltenham last year and finished 4th so should be ok with the distance, he is currently 33/1
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