Eurovision Song Contest 2011

doc2008 · Group 1 Class Joined: 28 Jan 2008 Posts: 382

I didn't back anyone this year, I had 2 lays done and glad pulled it off Smile

I couldn't work out why france where favourites so had them layed when once there price went in towards the 5/4 and then made free money on the UK as simply nobodys likes the UK, it's the same every year doesn't matter who was singing.

Win

Systemsman · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 07 Apr 2008 Posts: 1046

OK ESC 2012 will start Jan 1st 2012.

But I will do a study of polls. One of the great myths this year is that the polls have not been accurate and are mot useful - NOT TRUE. The best polls (the two i posted on here) were accurate and by that i mean the winner was in their top 4 (after all this is a 40+ runner race - you wouldnt normely just back one would you?). So I shall come back on this as my last piece of work with the evidence that polls are useful and on the whole accurate (the best polls that is).

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 28 Oct 2004 Posts: 7974

sm, i think the error u made this year was they were infallible. once u had made yer mind up it was uk or france u werent really open to anyone else even when the evidence was screaming at u. we all get blinkered like that sometimes tho. theres definitely a place for polls in the analysis, but of course things can rapidly gain momentum (eg ireland) or lose momentum (eg hungary or estonia) and that wont really get shown in the polls so well. we also have to remember that the people who vote in the polls are not the people who vote in the contest. i disagree those polls were accurate, saying it had the winner in the top 4 when so many of the others flopped badly. there are many more variables to think about next year.

as i hinted earlier in this thread, uk (and france) to a lesser extent are quite unpopular in world terms. everyone wants to come here but no one likes us! its gonna need a really strong song with a plum draw for uk to land the eurovision. and even then we will need to rely on eastern european countries not being strong competition.

next years competition in the barn is eagerly looked forward to!
_________________
Positions are available in the OLBG Lottery syndicate. Multiple lines in each draw increases chances of a jackpot. Wanna join? Please PM me for info.

cbris78 · Classic Winner Joined: 16 Jun 2010 Posts: 512

Systemsman · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 07 Apr 2008 Posts: 1046

Polls
"Then if you are going to follow them you shouldn't manipulate them (removing history points perhaps...) to fit them in with the bets you've already made..."

Fair point but my research showed that it was slightly more accurate without the History points (iI gave bothe score so it was up to you to decide which to use) - this year it was the other way round. My stratagy which was made very clear early on failed (we stated on jan 1st!!) and that was to get on early at the bigger prices - in many years this would have worked. The problem for all the poo pooers regarding UK and France is that who would you back otherwise? - it could have ben anyone of about 8 others and only in the last few days did Azerbaijan look good (and Ireland was also a big "talking horse") and that was only when they got a good draw - not an easy year and i wish more had won but it would help if more people made more comments at an early stage as i was regulerly asking for.

Agreed it will be next to impossible for UK currently.

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 28 Oct 2004 Posts: 7974

u r right to remove history points as the world changes. uk used to be popular but now we interfere in too much and of course now we cant get a world cup bid, score highly in eurovision or do anything requiring allies.
_________________
Positions are available in the OLBG Lottery syndicate. Multiple lines in each draw increases chances of a jackpot. Wanna join? Please PM me for info.

machine · Posted: Sun May 15, 2011 9:40 pm Post subject:

Systemsman
Group 1 Class
i never followed any points to FRANCE or UK. stop biting at any criticism.i lost.what the heck,but won from the massive info given by yourself an SHOWLAD last year.good enough for me,i think all points on here are given in good faith,but nobody gotta follow any,never mind all.keep on the site please.i find the E.S,C thread highly entertaining now,never even thought i would be interested for sure. Laughing

.next there will be an inquest on all tipsters on the thread.next stop,the backbiting of the nag thread. Laughing

YUP i fell for KATI. but still believe,instead of her twittering,she had come on stage in the final naked.i would have won. Laughing

garc · Handicapper Joined: 28 Mar 2006 Posts: 21

was on azerbaijan thankfully as I also had 5 other ew bets which all failed. ukraine and italy, what the hell were people listening to!!
had posted my top 5 here a month ago and had azer as my num 1 so very good result for me but could have been a disaster if my num 1 didnt come in
also posted that I had seen uk entry on live tv twice and each time it was dire so I dont think it was anything to do with anti uk voting . it was just a dire song with dire singers and the tin hat was on when they had their blown up photos behind them for the opening of the song, SAD.
Really enjoyed the different opinions on here as it was very informative so thanks to all.
lessons for 2012: dangerous betting before the final placing draw as it seems to be the most important factor. look to eastern europe for a half decent song. bookies havent got a clue how to price this market and there is serious money to be made with the right research. dont fall for the "follow the herd" trend re those 2 twats from my own soil, 30/1 to 4/1 in a few days!! and of course france. finally have a bet or 2 and sit back and enjoy. as someone said a few weeks back on this forum, its like a 2-3 hr long horse race which is great betting value

tts272 · Group 2 Class Joined: 19 Apr 2010 Posts: 130

Guys,

I really appreciate what you write on this site. I would like add something too.

I have noticed there is a missing point that nobody including me catches it. Some conditions may change for some countries during the competetion. I will give you the one about Azerbeijan. As you know, Turkey couldn't qualify from SF1 for some reason. In return the turkish diaspora living in West Europe has voted for Azerbeijan. Azerbeijan gave advertisement in the local turkish newspapers by spending much.

Azerbeijan picked up the points not only from ex soviet countries but also from the west european and the nordic countries. If Turkey had qualified for the final, Azerbeijan would not probably have reached the victory.

As a result, the polls can give you some insight and it may mislead you sometimes. In my view, I must care about the poll results max 20 to 25 percent. The recent years, you tube figures must be taken into account. This year could be Sweden's year according to the youtube figures. But as I said the conditions have drastically changed in favor of Azerbeijan. As for Italy, Nobody predicted and there was no indication they would be a dark horse.

My music taste tells me that Slovenia should have been the winner but they couldn't even make into top 10 neither could austria and romania.

If there is not a song that stands out from the others, then the bloc voting gets into act to determine the winner. 2009 Norway and 2010 Germany are very good samples to the outstanding songs with winning by big margins. This year's ESC has been all about the politics as everybody agrees that there have been better songs and singers than Azerbeijan's and they are not in top 10.

If you have noticed; after the end of voting the female singer of Azerbeijan came to the stage waiving the Turkish flag. Isnt that weird to you? She knew that the turkish diaspora was directly involved in their achievement.

Lets hope for a better result and winning for 2012. See ya'll next year Win

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 28 Oct 2004 Posts: 7974

another lesson ive learnt is to be a bit more selective and not do as many bets as this year. i feel they were all good bets but there were too many and i should just have picked the ones i was very confident about.
_________________
Positions are available in the OLBG Lottery syndicate. Multiple lines in each draw increases chances of a jackpot. Wanna join? Please PM me for info.

machine · Posted: Sun May 15, 2011 10:34 pm Post subject:

tts272
Group 3 Class

i as a not wound up follower of this thread,find it hard,that your detailed explanation about the block votes,(other than the comment about the turkish flag,)was not aired before the final vote was offered,big shame,could have helped the more serious bettors on this thread. Confused

Dammo Qwirky · Stallion Joined: 28 Oct 2004 Posts: 7974

this is very interesting...

http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news?id=36573&_t=australia_has_voted_and_the_winner_is....

had a quick look and most of the top scoring countries have a sizable ethnic population in australia so even over there they cant away from the bias. interesting how azerbaijan came LAST over there.
_________________
Positions are available in the OLBG Lottery syndicate. Multiple lines in each draw increases chances of a jackpot. Wanna join? Please PM me for info.

Eurovision Odds