Eurovision Song Contest 2012

[cbris78]

Been reading for a while and thought i'd just give a few of my thoughts.

Sweden are a worthier favorite than France last year but still can't justify the price and will be looking for value (like with Azer last year) in the bigger prices.

Italy should get a decent Jury vote again, show up much better in polls this year and should be respected, although I think the 10th slot in the final will mean it finds at least a couple too good.

Serbia are this years Azer for me and could be the default winner, good song, shows up well in polls, guaranteed block/disapora vote that I hope will see it into the top 4, maybe higher if other songs under perform and they get a late draw.

Spain are a decent proposition from 19th in the final, the juries are there to balance out block voting and seem to favor this type of song although I do think 20/1 is still a bit skinny due to their history. Their position in some polls does something to allay that fear but polls aren't really something I place much faith in.

I think Norway can out perform their price as well, very similar to Sweden from last year which did well so value at the odds for me. Negatives being the strength of all the Scandinavian entries but if it can get a decent draw and is amongst different types of songs it will stand out and should do well. Needs everything to fall right for it to be top 4 though so maybe one to back for top 10.

Also toying with the idea of backing Ireland purely as a trade as I can envisage a similar drop in odds to last year as the publicity machine gets into full swing. Be surprised if they trouble the top 4 so it is purely a trade.

Of the other songs in the top of the betting I don't see the UK or Russia doing anything to justify their odds...

[Systemsman]

Year after year we get posters who claim ESC polls are a waste of time and they are so wrong. Cleary you do have to be very very careful but the trick is to know which ones to trust and how to use the information as early as is safe (if you wait too long the best prices are gone of course). Of course I agree there are many very bad polls out there manipulated by countries TV/radio and record producers. But there are two that I do trust and this is about one.

ESCStats.com winner estimate has always been accurate (it uses points for a range of issues including its own good poll). Now I use this poll with and without “history points” to see if there are any differences. Last year I made the mistake of deducting the history point so failed to get the winner (silly me). Their record:

2011
1. Sweden 22pts 3rd
2. UK 21pts 11th
2. Azerbaijan 21pts 1st WINNER
4. Bosnia & Herzegovina 20pts 6th
5. France 19pts 15th (bookies clear Fav)

So winner was Jt 2nd and correct with regard to France not winning. You did need to sue those “history” points in 2011.

2010
1. Azerbaijan 23pts 5th
2. Armenia 22pts 7th
3. Israel 21pts 14th
4. Norway 21pts 20th
5. Ireland 18prs 23rd

10. Germany 12pts 1st WINNER

Our blog did get the winner in 2010 and Germany was recommended strongly by me as the No1 choice to win. The ESCstats poll would have placed Germany 5th if you deducted history points (Germany were given none) which is why I made the mistake in 2011 when I again tried to deduct them.

2009
1. Greece 24pts 7th
1. Azerbaijan 24ps 3rd
3. Norway 21pts 1st WINNER
3. Bosnia & Herzegovina 21pts 9th
5. Turkey 20pts 4th

So the winner was Jt 3rd. Norway would have been Jt Fav without “history points” (only awarded 1pts for “history”).



2008
1. Russia 25pts 1st WINNER
1. Ukraine 25ts 2nd
3. Serbia 23pts 6th
4. Armenia 22pts 4th
5. Sweden 21pts 18th

So the ESC winner was the poll Fav! (Russia would still have been top without “history” pts)

[Systemsman]

Early days yet (and its not one of my two recommended polls) but interesting. OGAE (Euro ESC fan clubs) vote:

Current standings (4 clubs out of 41):

1. Sweden 41
2. Iceland 28
3. Spain 25
4. Cyprus 22
5. Serbia 19
6. Estonia 10
-. Switzerland 10
-. Norway 10
9. France 9
10. Russia 8
-. Italy 8
12. Denmark 7
13. The Netherlands 6
14. Romania 5
-. United Kingdom 5
16. Greece 4
-. Slovakia 4
18. FYR Macedonia 3
-. San Marino 3
-. Latvia 3
21. Albania 2


So only 4 club votes so far so dont take it too seriously yet.

[Systemsman]

Just so you have a balance o that last OGAE poll here is their final score for last year 2011. Its why i dont take this poll too seriously as it only from keen fans and not the public in general.

OGAE 2011 Final Lineup
1 Hungary 277
2 France 270
3 United Kingdom 253
4 Sweden 238 3rd
5 Estonia 183
6 Bosnia & Herzegovina 119
7 Azerbaijan 117 WINNER
8 Denmark 56
9 Germany 50
10 Norway 43

[Systemsman]

2011 and OGAE
Only the Sweden OGAE fan club got the winner right and awarded Azerbaijan 12pts. UK next best who gave them 10pts. It will be interesting tos see what these two clubs score this year.

[cbris78]

As I said last year I do think polls have a place but for me at least are just one piece of the puzzle, they're not a waste of time, but also not something I'd place the majority of my picks around. As there's quite a few markets/ways to approach ESC betting everyone's going to have different strategies as well so don't take it as a dig and if your strategy works for you that's fair enough. Maybe because I'm not necessarily looking exclusively for the winner the emphasis I place on polls is reduced. I also prefer to wait till quite a bit later to place my bets which means there's more things to go on by then, of course you can miss out on big prices on the winner, but that doesn't really bother me as quite often there's (hopefully) value to be found elsewhere.

[Systemsman]

Fair points cbris78. Many people do like the EW and top ten bets which i dont do and ofcourse if you get them right they are good value. Its the winner for me and only the winner but thats just the way i like to invest.

Perhaps we need to have a longer look at best EW value and Top 10 and top 3 in semi finals soon.

[cbris78]

I think like last year my preference for betting e/w is also because I couldn't confidently nail a winner down with any degree of certainty.

I haven't actually parted with any money yet, have you got any down yet? I'd like to back Serbia but I worry about it's appeal to western audiences. If it gets one of the 21-26 slots I'll be on but with the possibility it could end up 2nd it's a bit too short for me at the minute.

Spain seems a decent proposition and I may back this along with Iceland purely with a view to trade prior to the rehearsals. I think both may ultimately fall short of a top 5 in the final though.

Norway is the one I keep coming back to as value at it's current price. Very similar to Sweden which probably would of won last year if its position with Azer had been reversed. Will probably wait to see where its drawn first though as I don't think it's going to have the bloggers/commentators etc praising it like they may Spain for example, so hopefully it's price will hold up (in fairness it's been on the drift).

What are the 2 polls you think are most useful btw mate?

[Systemsman]

cbris78 "What are the 2 polls you think are most useful btw mate?"
Well chris one is already posted, see my post on "ESCStats.com winner estimate" earlier.

The second i will post on soon but the poll result always comes out late so not much help for early anti post bets.

At last some good debate on here so lets keep it flowing but the number posting is still a poor quota of those looking.

Anyone up for a top six poll like last year? You score your top six with six pts for your first choice, 5pts for your 2nd choice etc etc down to your six choice (its the same as on the Grand National blog which many find very useful). We can also do it all over again after rehersasl are over. I'll start (it gets hard after the first 3 for sure).

Pre rehersal Eurovison Song Contest Poll - Top Six
1. Sweden 6points
2. Italy 5points
3. Serbia 4points
4. Iceland 3points
5. Norway 2points
6. Denmark 1point

Feel my points are a bit too West European orientated but the bookies are with me (Romania is next best after Serbia acoording to bookies with regard to Eastern Euope).

[Systemsman]

The ESC Nation expert vote after the Big Preview (whatever that is) - out of 20pts:

Final Result:
1. Sweden 14.65
2. Romania 14.64
3. FYR Macedonia 14.43
4. Iceland 14.03
5. Italy 14.00
6. Netherlands 13.82
7. Azerbaijan 13.63
8. UK 13.21
9. Latvia 12.97
10. Serbia 12.93

Now i did say my own score was a bit too West Euopean inclined so team what about Romania - have we missed a good one?
Lets have your views on Romania please.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIZdRD-TSXg&feature=related

[Systemsman]

More on Romania who the bookies like next best after Serbia as far as Eastern Euope is concerned.

I like it, its on a par with Cyprus (which is also nice). It will certainly get some support.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3ukcxou2xI&feature=related

The official video above has almost 5million views on YouTube!!!!! Take note. It sounds a lot better on this video than the studio version but there could lie the problem - can she sing it well live (remember Estonia last year)- if she can we need to take this song as a possible serious thret i think. For Each Way people this could a good bet. I have to say the more i listen to it the more i like it a top six/eight i think (very disco but is that dated now? Still it does have "impact") . Is it better than Italy??????? - I dont think so as Italy is so different and a bit jazzy but both singesr have a strong voice (but we do need to see them perform "live"!)

Views Team - urgent. - before price drops.

[tts272]

I think they've got it right except a few countries. But top 5 is going to look like that except Norway. Spain may be 3rd or 4th. Enjoy your bets to that ranking.

This is the complete vote of OGAE Spain:
•12 Sweden
•10 Italy
•8 Serbia
•7 Norway
•6 Germany
•5 Cyprus
•4 Romanía
•3 Iceland
•2 Denmark
•1 Estonia