Eurovision Song Contest 2012

[Systemsman]

Lost my post just just a quick one.

A week agao Turkey wre top and Swedn 2nd on YouTube - you have to look very carefully to find the corrcet figures. Hoever Turkey is not shwing up in any other polls so forget that view count. I am clear currenly its:

Serbia
Sweden

I have them clear Jt top!!

and then about three or four others; Denmark/Cyprus/Norway/Italy/Greece/Russia (fun factor only so wont win)

[Systemsman]

More updates after the Grand National is over.

[Systemsman]

Ok now the Grand National is over (missed winner by a nostral!!) its time to get moving big time with the ESC.

Be warned Italy WILL be a bg player this year. 3rd with the bookies (ahead of Serbia 4th). Now i prefer Sweden and Serbia but this lady has real stage presence and the juries wll love it (but not quite so the voters i think). Not sure which language it will be sung it yet. Anyway take a look (put the headphones on and listen) and let me have your views:

2,002,339 YouTube views. Nina Zilli - Per Sempre

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tHRjyysyB2E&feature=related

And the stage version:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJLCgWl0b1w

[Systemsman]

Eurovision Song Contest

Current odds:
1. Sweden 2/1 to 12/5. Look all over good for top 3 and possible winner but will have to share West European votes with Denmark/Norway/Iceland/Cyprus which may allow Serbia to win.
2. Russia 5/1 - 17/2. Joker in the pack. Juries wont let it win, may pick up some fun/jocjer votes but forget this one as a winner - bookies got this badly wrong, but as usual taking no chances (remember France last year?)
3. Italy 9/1 - 12/1. A real live danger (jury loved them alst eyar with a crap song). Top 5/6 for sure. Not sure this is the winner myself but it may come across very very well on stage in the final. One for any short list.
4. Serbia 10/1- 16/1. get on while you cam a real live danger if it mows up the East European vote big time as i think it will. I prefer Sweden (and Denmark) personely but this si about who will win not what i like. A must for any short list (my son diagrees with this opinion).
5. Denmark 10/1- 16/1. One i ile very much but its not showing up too well in the polss to threten either Sweden or Serbia. Its liley that if Sweden swwesp up a lot of the West European vote then Denmark may lose out on those all important 12pts and 10pts.
6. Uk 10/1- 16/1. Forget it!! No way.

[Systemsman]

Some key polls i trust:

Kolumbus poll:
Pre Chart 2012
First score is no of 12pts in total given. Second score is total pts given.
1. Sweden 365 8945 (!!)
2. Spain (!) 140 5293
3. Iceland 78 5040
4. Serbia 109 4763
5. Cyprus 68 4364
6. Norway 54 4280
7. Italy 61 4166

Others on 3230 pts or less.

See Part 2 coming next (very important).

[Systemsman]

Kolumbus poll winner estimate (takes into account many factors besides poll)- this poll has been very very accurate using top 6 in the last few years.
allocates up to five pts for each of five catagories (History/Chart/Odds/Show/ Phenomenon). In 2011 Azerbaijan was joint 2nd last year (Sweden 21pts [3rd],
United Kingdom 21pts [11th], Azerbaijan 21pts [winner], Bosnia & Herzegovina 20pts [6th ].

Dont forget what i have said in an early post that countries in the top 4 excluding the winner are dangerous for the next three years after.

2012- this poll is not finished yet (only History/Chart and odds pts so far)
1. Sweden 14pts
2. Italy 14pts
3. Serbia 14pts
4. Russia 11ps
5. Norway 11pts
6. Greece 11pts
7. Uk 9pts

More polls later.

[Systemsman]

For your information:

"countries in the top 4 excluding the winner are dangerous for the next three years after". Systemsman

2011
1. Azerbaijan - exclude
2. Italy - very dangerous
3. Sweden - very dangerous
4. Ukraine - no sign of support so far

2010
1. Germany - good song this year top 10 even top 6.
2. Turkey - never underestimate this one but little sign of support other than YouTube views. Could be a surprise top 6 (some young peopel will love it) but not top 3.
3. Romania - little support
4. Denmark - top 10 but not top 3.

2009
1. Norway - top six but will struggle against Sweden for same vote. Previous recent winner. Dangerous but Sweden more so.
2. Iceland - one to keep an eye on. shows up in some polls. Need to look at this one more. 10th with bookies.
3. Azerbaijan - won in 2011 (proves what i am saying) Forget for this year they had their win.
4. Turkey - see comments for 2010. Often do better than you think they will.

So who is most dangerous from this survey? (obviously excludes those not mentioned like Serbia)

1. Sweden by far the most dangerous.
2. Italy
3. Norway but had recent win
4. Germany but had recent win.
5.Turkey - gets youth vote and has many friends.

[Systemsman]

So what do you make of Iceland? Views please.

Gréta & Jónsi - Mundu Eftir Mér (Iceland - ESC 2012)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaNNfJOALng&feature=related

Its not one for me. Cant see it winning. Its the usual good standard for Iceland and may come across very well on stage but i dont think its a top 3. But keep an eye on it.

[Leaguesaint]

Re. Iceland, the version you have posted is the original Icelandic video. I believe in the actual contest it will be sung in English. The video they provided to the ESC website is in English.

This is one of my favourite songs and a real grower in my opinion. Being a grower might not necessarily be good in ESC though as many voters will only hear song once.

I think the main thing in its favour is that it's a bit different to the other songs and therefore might stand out to voters. I'd say the same about Turkey although I'm not a big fan of that song.

[Systemsman]

Thanks for the comments Leaguesaint. I will kep an eye on Iceland but untill its show up well in a number of polld iam not over worried aboout this one.

If we are to win this year we need far far more comments and views - dont be shy any opinion is worth having as its a range of views we need.

The ESC Nation poll which does show some support for Iceland.

01. Sweden 421
02. Iceland 308
03. Spain 170
04. Italy 168
05. Cyprus 153
06. Serbia 147
07. Norway 141
08. Germany 107
09. Denmark 106
10. Slovenia 89
11. Romania 83
12. Azerbaijan 57
13. Turkey 53
14. Greece 52
15. Bosnia and Herzegovina 46
16. Netherlands 45
17. France 44
18. Finland 39
19. Russia 39
20. Macedonia (FYR) 36
21. Estonia 31
22. United Kingdom 27
23. Switzerland 24
24. Latvia 23
25. Albania 20
26. Bulgaria 7

[Systemsman]

The All Kinds of Everything Poll (Ireland ESc site - very good). Votes were cast for who would win each semi final but i have put them into a combinded poll. % refers to each of rhe seperate two polls for a semi final predictions (you are looking at the combined vote below).

Serbia 9.16% (1,140 votes)
Sweden 8.83% (1,099 votes)
Iceland 8.72% (1,046 votes)
Bosnia-Herz. 8.36% (1,040 votes)
Greece 8.56% (1,027 votes)
Norway 8.27% (1,029 votes)
Russia 8.56% (1,027 votes)
Turkey 7.89% (982 votes)
Denmark 8.19% (983 votes)

Now this is likely to be a more Irish view on events so be careful. It does show that Serbia are very dangerous. Again Iceland show up well.
We need more views on Iceland please!!

[Systemsman]

Update og ESC Nation poll.
Below results give the total of points for each song given by all individual voters.

01. Sweden 8233
02. Iceland 5315
03. Spain 4083
04. Italy 3945
05. Cyprus 3615
06. Norway 3572
07. Serbia 3388
08. Denmark 3169
09. Germany 3094
10. Romania 3080
11. Slovenia 2852
12. Greece 2774
13. Turkey 2658
14. Netherlands 2565
15. Ireland 2549

Sweden way ahead. Cyprus populer with many (but not 1st or 2nd i think).