Betfred CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP - CHELTENHAM 2012

Billy121only

Sad though it is, the cold logic of betting demands that we should let go of the idea that backing Kauto Star for the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup is a good idea. After taking what Paul Nicholls describes as an ‘awful fall’, Kauto has reportedly not been right and his participation hinges on a gallop scheduled for the Saturday before the Gold Cup. Now is probably the time to back something else and although Long Run looks almost home on the form, I have never quite felt comfortable backing him at short prices. Instead, I am looking at those who might make the placings at a nice price and there are a couple who stand out.

MIDNIGHT CHASE may not be quite top-class but he isn’t far off round Prestbury Park and he is likely to give it a real good shot from the front. A lovely big old-fashioned chaser, this 10-y-o is a natural athlete over the obstacles and his 5-8 record at Cheltenham is notable. Fifth in the Blue Riband last year, beaten 19-lengths by Long Run and on his second completed run this season, he set a new personal best when beating Tidal Bay in the Argento Chase in January. It isn’t the form that is striking; rather Midnight Chase’s ability to gallop and jump his rivals into trouble. Stamina comes with the package and he was staying on again at the finish a year ago. Has won on fast ground and heavy and although he is being aimed at the Grand National, connections will have figured that they have a real chance of least place money in the Gold Cup. Currently available at 16/1.

Less flamboyant and natural as my other selection is WHAT A FRIEND but I think Sir Alex Ferguson’s 9-y-o has a decent shout of at least a place. Paul Nicholls has had to plot What A Friend’s career around his more illustrious stable companions and it is to the horse’s credit that he finished fourth to Long Run in the 2011 Gold Cup, as that was not his main target a year ago. Sent off at just half his Gold Cup SP for the following month’s Grand National at Aintree but he just didn’t enjoy himself there. After a nice summer break, he ran over hurdles at Wetherby to blow away the cobwebs. His 4 ¼ length third in the Denman at Newbury to Long Run was a perfectly sound effort and with the Grand National not on the agenda, I think What A Friend has a real chance of not only placing in the Gold Cup, but maybe even winning! He remains lightly-raced and in his favour, his trainer knows how to prepare a Gold Cup winner. Currently availbale at 40/1.
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Robertstone62 · Group 3 Class Joined: 12 Feb 2012 Posts: 82

First post as a Newbie, so bear with me.
Anyway, now that Kuato Star is a doubt, the placings could depend on whether Grands Crus runs in the Gold cup.
Still 11/2 & maybe not a good e/w bet but a fabulous horse & think he would fill a place.
Also, looking forward, already 2nd fav in King George.

mroche00 · 2yo Joined: 05 Mar 2012 Posts: 9

I love Kauto Star as much as anybody in Horse Racing,and i love nothing more then seen history been made,but can you see a 12 year old winning the Gold Cup,no matter how good a horse is,age has to be a factor and he struggled last year in the Gold Cup going up that hill,imagine this yea

UnderdogsLover · Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 2:29 pm Post subject:

Yes i can see Kauto Star wining the gold cup, as 12 year old. Yes

Kauto was below par in last year race.
He on song this year, my only worry is the nasty fall he had the other
day, hope come by gold cup, Kauto will be fine. Fingers Crossed

Am not put off the age, 12 is just a number, horses win the Grand National
at that age, and thats alot further then gold cup distance..

Cheltenham nearly here at last.. Smile

mountie · Group 2 Class Joined: 04 Apr 2007 Posts: 112

I'm sorry but I would have to disagree with "age just being a number". While I'm not suggesting he can't win it, his age surely has to be taken into account. Horses stamina can generally improve as they get older so thats why 12year olds can still win Grand National.

Winning the classiest chasing race going involves competing at a breakneck speed most of the way around for more than 3 miles. Personally i think it would be wrong to look at Kauto Star's age as merely a number, certainly in analysing its chances in The Gold Cup.

drogerson · Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 9:07 pm Post subject:

I don' think Kauto can be 100% now, as much as they'll want to him to be. I think they'll still race him, but I was leaning towards Long Run anyway so my mind is made up now unless Grands Crus steps in.
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smeemartin · Triple Crown Winner Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Posts: 1070

You would have to agree though , that bar the accident the other day, Kauto has been in far better form this year than last and all the reports about his well being prior to the fall were very positive, it seems luckily that there has been no harm done , Im on Long Run by the way, but I wont mind loosing to Kauto....

overthefence · Group 1 Class Joined: 17 Jan 2009 Posts: 324

Bit of a shake up still to be made I think in the Gold Cup market and at this stage I think Kauto will make the start.

I'm a big Long Run fan but have to believe he has not trained on this year, I believe the comments that if Burton Port had a different trainer then it would have passed long run however I think Burron Port will just have needed another run this season.

I'm a big trends lover and rule Kauto out due to aged. I also love Captain Chris but he has disappointed this season and one I cannot back in the hope he returns to form.

Based on trends again as much as I think Grands Cruz is a horse destined for the Gold Cup or King George the novice record is poor.

So I'm left with a field of Midnight Chase, Weird Al and Syncronised

I'm going to side with Syncronised however the lack of Cheltenham form is a concern.

davidovski · 2yo Joined: 14 Dec 2011 Posts: 5

Winner nearly always comes from King George or Lexus, so at prices I'd be with Synchronised too

scuzzlebutt · Group 3 Class Joined: 02 Apr 2008 Posts: 86

I'm torn between Kauto Star and Long Run, will probably try and work out some kind of split stake on both for an even money return as long as one of them wins.

InsideMan · Stallion Joined: 12 Dec 2009 Posts: 8675

dragonman · Group 2 Class Joined: 30 Mar 2008 Posts: 186

I will be shouting at the tv for kauto to get up that hill!!! but sadly i think the combination of years the extra furlongs over 3 miles and the uphill run in will do for him this year. I also dont fancy Long run as have watched his last 2 starts with 2 friends who coach jockeys albeit eventing and both said exactly the same thing , that they didn't think SWC does the horse any favours.

I will have a few quid on Burton Port who I felt finished like a train last time out behind a spent long run although receiving 10lbs from him.

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