Cheltenham 2012 Discussion

[man o bong]

Really looking for ward to seeing SIMONSIG go at Ascot today
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It is literally true that you can succeed best and quickest by helping others to succeed.

[The Executioner]

Me too - this is what I put up on the TTF thread.

[deswalker]

Wonderful to see Kauto roll back the years today, winning the Betfair chase at Haydock. But can he do it again at Cheltenham?

No. Simple answer, as Nicholls said before the race, he's never had him 100% for that race before and this time he was. He was simply brilliant during the race but appeared to be blowing quite a bit following it. Long Run came off the bridle very early but stayed on gamely, he will come on for that and The Gold Cup is definitely still his to lose, although as I mentioned before he still could be vulnerable.

Diamond Harry was a disappointment I think but I wonder if he fully stayed as he seemed to be keeping up with Kauto for a long time. Is that possible? Ryanair a possibility?



Also, I thought the Amlin chase was very interesting today with Somersby and Master Minded pretty well clear of Medermit. I couldn't help but notice that Elsworth used up his whip allowance towards the middle of the race on Somersby, then was forced to ride him out hands and heels... then after getting over his flat spot he was closest at the finish. It was a terrific race but I think that Somersby might well be up to getting closer than the bare result this season.



Plenty to think about there.
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"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

[UnderdogsLover]

Yes agree great to see Kauto back to his winning ways.
So looking forward Boxing day now.

Had small bet on Kauto for Gold Cup, got 20/1.
Never rule out an older horse, 12 year olds still can win.

This is the year Kauto, will be back to his very best. and truimph.

[katiesdad]

The 2 horses i`ll be backing anti post for the festival next year are...

Volcan surprise - triumpth hurdle.

Thousand stars - champion or world hurdle.

Paul.

[DAVIDADAN]

Any strong opinions on Overturn in the Champion Hurdle?Donald McCain’s Overturn reminded us just what a great performer he is and that he remains an interesting prospect for next year’s Champion Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival currently 20/1 after todays race.Undecided on Peddlers Cross or Grand Crus for the RSA,which i,m sure will be a cracker 12/1 and 5/1 respectively.

[Micko70]

DAVIDADAN

Peddler's Cross has yet to race beyond 2m 5f, therefore i wouldn't think he would be aimed at the RSA, having had 2 chases which have both been 2m 1f.

I would have thought he would have been upped in trip to a 2m 4+ novice chase on his 2nd outing if he was being aimed at the longer chase.

Good luck though, with whatever you decide to back

[DAVIDADAN]

[deswalker]

I need to look back on that replay of Master Minded v Somersby actually davidadan but that was my initial reaction... not one person that I spoke to agreed so I will try and review with an open mind!

On Overturn, I am close to being convinced that he is back this season a better horse. He beat Binocular this weekend, who does traditionally need the run on reappearance, but Binocular looked the part and came to Overturn like he was going to sail past.

In addition to this it was the manner of his victory over General Miller at Perth in August which seems to indicate this. General Miller is a Grade 2 winner lets not forget and, despite being taken on for the lead by Australia Day, he managed to win by clear lengths from Miller... giving him 15lbs.

Lets not forget that General Miller was also a Zipster 10pt NAP that day as well...
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"The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)

Follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Crossland

[Underated]

Overturn's admirable but I'd say he's just below that top, top class. Binocular looked as if he was there to win the fighting fifth last year too (1.49 IR) when blowing up and looked to do the same yesterday. Nicky's hurdlers always travel well and blow up when he's prepping them. He had to try catching a race-fit, high class front-runner. Also, wouldn't take the form with General Miller so literally. Yes, he did beat Menorah but Menorah had hit the front way too soon, was probably over the top by then (betting suggested) and it was a poor field. Don't like looking at handicaps when judging graded form, makes you think certain horses performed much better than they actually did. Poqulein won a handicap in April off 170, there's no way he's a 170 horse.

I think the value lies with last year's Triumph hurdlers. If HF gets there, he wins, but with his setback I can't back him at the price. I've taken 14s about Grandouet, and am tempted to back Zarkandar but am slightly put off by the Aintree running.

[Micko70]

Underated

How can you say Poquelin is not a 170 rated horse, he gave tons of weight away in that race and won, and the handicapper rated him as 170, unless you think your a better handicapper than he is?

If he is not a 170 rated horse then the horses he gave weight to are not 150 horses.

Poquelin was running off 163 when he beat Great Endeavour last December, he gave him, without the jockeys claim he was giving Great Endeavour 21lbs and still beat him, Great Endeavour won this years PaddyPower easily off 147

[Micko70]

Surely Paul Nicholls has to take Celestial Halo back to novice chasing, he struggled from a long way out on Saturday and it's not like it was his seasonal debut.

He won the Elite Hurdle, but would have finished a long way behind Grandouet if he had not fallen, he was also woeful @ Aintree behind Oscar Whiskey.

With his official rating still 160 (might drop after Saturdays poor effort), he cannot run in any Handicaps and will struggle against the big boys in any graded hurdle