Posted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 4:57 pm Post subject: Cheltenham Preview Night
maghull town hall
mersyside
5th march
7.30 pm
panel
stu machin c4
john parrot bbc
david carr racing post
chairman john morris (jumping prospects.com) bbc radio
tickets £10
raffles and prizes...donation to alder hey childrens hospital
if interested please contact john morris @jumping prospects .com ..his phone number will be there..or just send e mail
tickets are limited, only 180 allowed in the hall,..to avoid disappointment book now.
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Posted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 7:01 pm Post subject:
For those in the London area, Kempton has its Cheltenham preview night on Wednesday 7th. Free with entry to the course for their all-weather meeting that evening.
I don't remember them doing this before but the panel is not bad actually; Paddy Brennan, Brendan Powell, Andrew Thornton and Trevor Dunne, so I would expect the turnout to be pretty good
I'm going. _________________ "The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)
Paul Binfield thought Zarkandar had a decent chance of beating Hurricane Fly
Paul Nicholls thought he had a chance and would be better than he was at Newbury
Also said Zarkandar was on anti-biotics and would finish the course next couple days, but seemed OK
Also thought Rock on Ruby was way overpriced on form with Binocular
Brampour will run and may have EW squeak, Celestial Halo will take his chance
Andrew King thought Binocular was the EW bet, impressed with last win
4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 7f
Nothing on this race discussed in detail
Paul Jones asked Philip Hobbs about Balthazar King, and I thought he got quite a positive response to his chances 14-1 EW not the worse bet in this race
4.40 David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle Race 2m 4f
Nobody can see Quevega being beaten
However Nick Williams was very keen on Swinford Flame‘s chance Each Way
5.15 Centenary Novice handicap Chase 2m 4.5f
Again not a lot discussed although Criqtonic mentioned as having a decent chance
DAY 2
1.30 National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup 4m
Nothing mentioned
2.05 Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle 2m 5f
Philip Hobbs said Fingal Bay was 50/50 after injuring a hamstring
Paul Jones thought Boston Bob had the soundest chance, indeed had the best novice hurdle form at the meeting
Also didn’t think Simonsig would win this if running
Andrew King thought it was between Fingal bay and Boston Bob
Paul Nicholls said he had been told this would be Boston Bob‘s target
2.40 RSA Steeple Chase 3m 1/2f
David Pipe said Grand Crus was in great form at home, probably wouldn’t decide on the race, until the 5 day decs.
Andrew king thought Bobs Worth would go well, but Grand Crus would win if running
Paul Nicholls said Join Together has won twice at the course, and would stay on as well as anything in the race
Paul Jones respected Invictus and Bobs Worth who is 3/3 at Cheltenham
Indeed thought Bobs Worth EW at 5-1 was one of the best bets at the meeting
Paul Binfield thinks Sword of Honour is a decent EW bet
Philip Hobbs thought Village Vic would run very well
Andrew King likes New Years Eve and Population
Paul Jones said that the top BHA rated horse on the flat do run well in this race, and Moscow Mannon would be the horse backed on the day
Nick Williams said Horatio Hornblower was nice horse and would run, if the going had “soft� in it
DAY 3
1.30 Jewson Novices’ Handicap Steeple Chase 2m 5f
Paul Nicholls said Cristal Bonus was running on Saturday and should go well, and then would run in this race, as long as going was soft enough
Nick Williams thought For Non Stop had a good chance but no more than that
Paul Jones thought he had never seen Ruby Walsh look happier than the last time he got off Cristal Bonus who jumps for fun, also likes Sir Des Champs, winner would come form one of these two
Andrew king thought For Non Stop could go off favourite and was the most likely winner
2.05 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle) 3m
David Pipe expected Buena Vista to run well again, he had been concerned from two races ago, when he seemed to lose form, but last run was pretty good
Buena Vista still has a chance on official rating
Paul Nicholls was keen on Sonofvic, 20-1 seems a decent price
2.40 Ryanair Chase 2m 5f
Paul Binfield said Noble Prince is the selection here, last race, ground was too soft
Massive chance this time
David pipe thought Great Endeavour had a really good chance which would improve on better going
Andrew King thought it was between Somersby and Great Endeavour
Paul Jones thought Somersby was very good EW bet, but not sure he wouldn’t go for the Queen Mother Chase.
Great Endeavour and Medermit needed to find around 7lbs
Indeed he said the older horses all seem Ok, it’s just the younger ones who have shown some signs
Big Buck’s has come on from last run
He did think Oscar Whisky would be his toughest challenger yet
David Pipe said Big Buck’s was certainty and that Dynaste was playing for one of the places
Paul Jones wished they would run Thousand Stars in this race rather than Champion Hurdle
4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Steeple Chase 2m 5f
Paul Nicholls said Crack Away Jack would run here, seemed quite keen on a decent run as well I thought
David Pipe said Salut Flo was entered in just about every race; there was some money for this one yesterday in this race
4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 1 1/2f
No discussion on this race
DAY 4
1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle 2m 1f
Minsk is the favourite for this race, not run all season – unbelievable.
Philip Hobbs said Sadlers Risk runs this Saturday, very happy with him
Nick Williams said Urbain De Sivola would run if ground was on the soft side
Paul Nicholls said Pearl Swan has the best form so far of his horses, but also said Dildar runs this Saturday, against Sadlers Risk
I got the impression he has very high hopes for Dildar
Andrew king liked Grumeti and Pearl Swan
Paul Jones thought Minsk could go off as low at 2-1, as his flat form is far in excess of anything else
Paul Binfield likes Darroun
Paul Nicholls did say he wouldn’t be surprised if Minsk never ran either this weekend or at Cheltenham!
2.05 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f
Philip Hobbs said Snap Tie is in good form, he reported this last year but the horse never got in, hasn’t run for two years, so you’d want a very big price, not sure 33-1 is big enough to tempt me
2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 3m
Paul Nicholls very keen on Rocky Creek
As mentioned earlier he believes Boston Bob will go to the Neptune
Andrew King thought Rocky Creek would go off 7-2 if Boston Bob was NR, so 10-1 at the moment was excellent
Paul Jones was not taken by Brindisi Breeze last run, not up to the standard to win this race
3.20 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f
Much of this was taken up discussing the merits of Long Run‘s last run, and whether Grand Crus would run
Paul Jones thought the front two were vulnerable, and that Weird Al was the best bet at 20-1
Andrew king thought What a Friend EW, although Paul Nicholls dismissed this saying 3rd was his best chance if everyone turned up
Paul Nicholls said Kauto Star was in top form at home, as good as he has seen him
Wasn’t sure Long Run had trained on, and that meant there was not a lot between them
Philip Hobbs was asked about Captain Chris, he said he has always jumped right, so that was not an issue as such, however he was not at his best IF HE RAN it would be Ryanair or Gold Cup, however then said he wouldn’t really want more than 3 miles, so I give him next to no chance of running in the Gold Cup, and I got the impression he was by no means certain to run at the Festival
4.00 Christie’s Foxhunter Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f
No discussion, although couple of tips at the end
4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 4 1/2f
As usual; David Pipe gets questioned on this race, however he said it is very difficult to even get a horse in this race, he tried with Grand Crus a couple years ago, but couldn’t as he had an OR of only 124
A few mentioned and maybe the most likely is Salut Flo if this
5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase 2m 1/2f
No discussion on this race
CHARITY BETS
Andrew King Rocky Creek Albert Bartlett
Paul Jones On The Fringe Foxhunters
Zoey Bird Scotsirish Cross Country
Nick Williams Swincombe Flame EW David Nicholson Mares
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW at WARWICK RACECOURSE Friday, February 24th
The panel was chaired by Chris Pitt who rattled through the races in double quick time to finish before racing commenced and featured up-and-coming trainer Charlie Longsdon (CL) who has a few horses with chances for the Festival (actually ‘arrived’ probably a better term for him now), Andrew Tinkler (AT) who rides for Nicky Henderson and gave the low down of many of their chief hopes, Kevan Minter (KM) (aka The Colonel to some) who gave betting updates and Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide author, Paul Jones.
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
CL: We will run Vulcanite and Hazy Tom. My horses are not right at the moment so you can both of their last runs. I was disappointed with Vulcanite at Newbury as he is 7lbs-14lbs better than that. He wants a strong pace and leading last time was hardly ideal. The owner wanted to take him to a valuable staying prize in Dubai instead but thankfully David Redvers has managed to change his mind which is good for me as he runs here. I hope you will see a far improved performance off a strong pace. I think we will reverse Kempton form with Tetlami. Hazy Tom wasn’t right at Ascot so forget that. Dickie Johnson thinks a fast-run 2m will really suit him when he is right so we have taken him out of the Neptune.
AT: Simonsig schooled very slicky this morning and has the pace to run in either the Supreme or Neptune. They go very, very quick in the Supreme so I would like to see him run here as it would really suit him. He is a real two-miler that would see it out very well. I schooled Darlan today and he went very well and showed no ill effects of his bad fall. Tetlami is by Daylami and has the traits of many offspring of his sire in that he only shows you half his hand as he does what you ask and no more. He has ten times more ability that he has shown.
KM: I always find this a hard race to predict. I know some shrewd judges are on Steps To Freedom at 14s but it worries me that he will not have run since November.
ARKLE TROPHY
CL: Barry Geraghty rode Moscow Flyer and he seems to think that Sprinter Sacre is in a different league to him so I can’t go against him. Flat tracks may suit him better and he has not done it yet at Cheltenham like four of his rivals but, even so. Peddlers Cross to chase him home.
AT: Sptrinter Sacre needs very little introduction now. I made the running on French Opera at Newbury at what I thought was championship pace and he just breezed by me at half-way like I wasn’t even there. He has to work on his own at home as nothing can live with him and we don’t want to break the hearts of horses like Oscar Whisky by working with him. The intention was sit him in behind at Newbury so he can learn but that only lasted about five fences as he just took off past them without even trying. He was a shell of a horse last year which is why he didn’t get up the hill but came back to us looking unrecognisable after the summer and has grown up now.
KM: The stats are against Sprinter Sacre as favourites have a poor Arkle record but I still see it as a match between him and Peddlers Cross.
CHAMPION HURDLE
CL: Hurricane Fly is outstanding and I expect him to win. I hear Zarkandar didn’t come out of his Newbury win brilliantly.
AT: Binocular looked great at Wincanton and I will be really surprised if he is not in the first three. I preferred him to Grandouet as our main hope even before Grandouet had his setback.
KM: I could win on Hurricane Fly. The Evens keeps getting wiped out every time someone offers it on the exchanges.
NH CHASE
CL: The plan is to run Universal Soldier. He has only had one run for us and, to be fair, although he won easily it was a mickey mouse race as Chartreux didn’t get very far. He pulled a muscle on his last start for his previous trainer and is best fresh. He is as slow as a hearse and needs all of 4m so this race should suit him and there is a good chance that Jamie Codd will ride and he has won this race twice before. I would like it to be on the easy side of good ground for him. Strongbows Legend is entered but this might come a year too soon for him, we’ll consider it as he won’t get another chance.
AT: We don’t really have anything for this. Loose Performer maybe but he is not a horse to back at the Festival. Teaforthree I like but just concentrate on the best amateur riders.
KM: A hard race to play in. Teaforthree and Fists Of Fury have been the horses for money recently.
NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
CL: We’ve got Cross Of Honour for this. He’s rated 126. If he was 130 he would have gone for the Coral Cup which would have been ideal but I doubt he would get in off 126. We need to a 140+ horse for this. Dawn Commander will run either here or the Albert Bartlett.
AT: This is Simonsig’s other option but I would personally like to see him in the Supreme as think he is a real two-miler.
KM: Even if Fingal Bay does run I would be worried about the form of the Hobbs yard. Boston Bob will start favourite if he runs here or the Albert Bartlett.
RSA CHASE
CL: I really can’t see past Grands Crus, he has too much class for these.
AT: I’ve not had much to do with Bobs Worth until five days before Ascot when I was asked to school him beforehand. He has no wow factor about him and I would be a bit surprised if he can beat Grands Crus. It can often take a run to get over a wind operation as they think it might hurt them the next time they race. I think that might have happened at Ascot as he looked quite laboured but then when he realised it wasn’t going to hurt he ran on.
KM: Grands Crus is one of my bankers of the meeting. He has high-class hurdles form and travels really easily. Invictus would be my idea of the main danger.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
CL: Sizing Europe should retain his crown. There is not much more to say really, he bolts up over 2m and doesn’t stay 3m. If healthy, he’ll win.
AT: Finian’s Rainbow schooled well this morning. I can’t see him beating Sizing Europe though. Whoever wins this year won’t win it again next year though as Sprinter Sacre will.
JEWSON NOVICES’ CHASE
AT: I schooled Solix this week. He jumped the first three beautiful but was bit flat at the fourth, or French as we like to call it at the yard. He has a good chance and he is better than his form says he is.
RYANAIR CHASE
CL: I don’t think you can rule out Albertas Run again and Jonjo knows what it takes. I’d love to this horse win it for a third time. If it comes up soft though I would switch to Rubi Light.
AT: Riverside Theatre was very much tuned up for Ascot. He gets himself fit so there is not much to work on. He could be better on a flat track. I quite like the chances of Medermit to reverse form as Choc almost fell off during the race which we gave him stick for and he wasn’t beaten far and 2m5f suits him really well. If you offered me the ride between Riverside Theatre and Medermit, I would pick Medermit.
KM: The message was very strong for Riverside Theatre at Ascot and the money was right. For me he is an outstanding each-way bet.
WORLD HURDLE
CL: Big Buck’s, what more can I add?
AT: Ruby says Big Buck’s is the biggest cert in racing. Oscar Whisky will be second or third. If there were a Ryanair Hurdle though he would win that. As for the Aintree Hurdle as some say he won’t stay as Thousand Stars nearly caught him that day, I thought Barry nicked the race at Aintree rather than committed too soon him. I thought it was a brilliant ride.
KM: Big Buck’s is an awesome machine but why take 4/9 now when he will trade at around Evens in-running at some point?
TRIUMPH HURDLE
CL: West Brit won the Scottish Triumph Hurdle for us. Ideally we wanted to go for the Fred Winter but we have run out of time to give him his third qualifying run. Shame as I saw him as an ideal Fred Winter type. He had a wind op before he won at Musselburgh and will improve again. Could be third, fourth or fifth but probably not good enough to win.
AT: Lyvius runs at Newbury next week. I schooled him this week and I adore this horse. He’s not a definite runner in the Triumph though.
GOLD CUP
CL: It’s hard to win a Gold Cup in successive years. Even Kauto Star has not done that and I can see a similar situation with Long Run as it takes a lot out of a horse to win the Gold Cup and he could be suffering a little this year as a result. I can see Long Run not winning this year but regaining his crown next season. Kauto Star to win for me.
AT: Opinion is divided in the yard between Long Run and Burton Port and I know a lot of the lads have 33/1 Burton Port e/w before his Newbury run. He will love the trip and the hill. Long Run was too chilled out in earplugs so he won’t have them in the Gold Cup. He’s older and wiser now.
KM: This is a big race for the main fancies in the betting of late. I was deeply impressed with Long Run giving weight away at Newbury where he did nothing wrong.
Joined: 21 Sep 2008
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Location: By The Thames on a warm Bank Holiday afternoon
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Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 11:35 pm Post subject:
Kempton preview night was a bit of... basically everyone fancies the favourites! So I'll skip all the favourite tipping that went on and skip to the interesting tit bits that were chucked in;
Firstly, there was more than one voice saying that Big Bucks could be on the receiving end for once from Oscar Whisky. The most persuasive argument being that the World Hurdle is actually usually quite leisurely paced and BB might get done for toe at the business end. I thought this of last years race.
Secondly Brendan Powell nominated Tullamore Dew as one of his best bets of the meeting for the JLT handicap chase on day one. Looks worth a second look.
Thirdly, Paddy Brennan was more than bullish about Sivola de Sivola IF he gets into the Pertemps Final, which he is in on 10-01 for, he nominated him as his bet of the meeting. He also said that if he didn't get in he would go for the "World hurdle"... although I think he meant the Albert Bartlett looking at the entries (makes a lot more sense)... and would be a fair Each Way chance for that as well.
Make of that what you will. _________________ "The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)
Des, good to hear Brennan so upbeat on Sivola De Sivola's chances in the Pertemps Final. I'd say he is also my main fancy for the meeting, although he isn't exactly guaranteed a run given he is the 51st entry! Fingers crossed. _________________ Horses To Follow 2013 - Flat
Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2012 9:13 am Post subject: Cheltenham Preview Night Day One - 11th March
I attended the Cheltenham preview evening last night and wanted to give you a quick run through of how the panel think the top races of day one of the festival will go.
Alan Lee (AL)
Gordon Elliott (GE)
Aidan Coleman (AE)
Noel O'Brien (NO)
Tanya Stephenson (TS)
Mick Fitzgerald (MF)
Russ Wiseman (RW)
Supreme Novices Hurdle
AC - Darlan / Vulcanite.
MF - Darlan / Tetlami
TS - Hazy Tom / Colour Squadron / ew Distant Memories (50/1 shot).
NO - Steps To Freedom / Tetlami / Trifolium
GE - Steps To Freedom / Cinders And Ashes
Arkle Chase
MF - Sprinter Sacre
AC - Sprinter Sacre
GE – Sprinter Sacre
TS - Sprinter Sacre / ew Menorah.
RW - Al Ferof
Champion Hurdle
RW - Hurricane Fly.
NO - Hurricane Fly
TS – Overturn
AC – Zarkandar
MF - Hurricane Fly / ew Rock On Ruby / ew Binocular
OLBG Mares Hurdle
MF - Quevega
TS - Terre Du Vent good Each Way against Quevega
GE - Quevega / Quite likes Shop DJ.
AC - Quevega
Last edited by Each-Way Queen on Mon Mar 12, 2012 12:06 pm; edited 1 time in total
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