All eyes will be on the clear favourite BOSTON BOB who bypassed the Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle to compete in this longer distance event. He is undefeated since joining Willie Mullins, including a victory over rival MOUNT BENBULBEN and by his trainer’s own admission is one of the best novices he has ever sent over for the festival. With the ground and distance not thought to pose a problem, this top class prospect will represent most people’s banker for the final day and a price of 6/4 will not be off-putting.
Recommended bet: Boston Bob to win at 6/4
The Cheltenham Gold Cup
The media focus of the feature race will surely be on the two market leaders – last year’s winner LONG RUN and crowd favourite KAUTO STAR. Despite two defeats to his rival earlier this season, the form of LONG RUN‘s latest victory over stablemate BURTON PORT at Newbury should not be dismissed. If unspectacular, he showed a gritty determination that day to beat a seven-time winner whilst conceding 10lb. This will surely prove be a key attribute in the final stages of this race. At 2/1 he remains a backable prospect against an older horse who’s less than ideal preparation for this race has been well publicised.
As previously suggested, the form of the Cheltenham RSA Novice ‘Chase 2010 has been phenomenal. As such, we recommended an ante-post bet on BURTON PORT at 33/1 prior to the Newbury encounter with LONG RUN. Given the lengthy layoff and his performance that day, we have little reason to change our minds and he remains a likely contender. Another each-way prospect is WEIRD AL. He pulled up last year due to a broken blood vessel but has won all of his previous starts at this course. Finishing just 2 lengths behind LONG RUN in November makes his 12/1 price of some appeal.
Gave 3lbs away to Grumeti last time out and had the win in the bag but was disqualified into 2nd place for causing intereference to runner up and one fo todays fancied rivals in Grumeti. That was over course and distance so there's no doubts regarding him on this track. Held up I have no doubt he was the one staying on out of the two, and with only two races under his belt can be an improver for today.
2:05pm Cheltenham - OLOFI
Received 3lbs and was 3 lengths behind Raya Star when they were beaten last month by Zarkandar. Was probably a little too crowded during the race to get into his stride fully, and had to be switched before the last when a rival horse began to drift before the fence which cost him momentum and a couple of lengths. He's 4lbs better off with Raya Star today, he stays this course well so I think he'll be one off a good mark who'll be making his presence felt up the hill.
2:40pm Cheltenham - SEA OF THUNDER
3 favourites have won this race from it's seven runnings, but the remaining 4 winners were priced at 33/1, 8/1, 9/1 & 9/1 which makes me want to take the favourite on. With the festival relying heavily on course and distance form we have one readied in Sea Of Thunder. Was cruising home over course and distance in the Bristol Novices Hurdle in December when taking an ultimely fall at the last under no pressure whatsoever. Didn't put a foot wrong through the rest of the race though and has no real history of suspect jumping so I'm inclined to take the fall as a one off. The race was also run at a good speed and his indicated finishing would have been a very good one. It may be pointed out that Boston Bob beat him last time out by 15 lengths, but it was over a too short trip for me for this horse and he was never really put in the race at any time, settled in rear and only making headway 2 out when staying on. 3 miles will see a better horse I think, and as an indicator 6 winners of the Bristol Hurdle have ran in this race winning twice and placing twice. Obviously not a winner but would have won readily but for falling, and his trainer has previously sent 3 horses to this race, winning once and placing twice. At 9/1 he's playable Each Way, but I'll be backing straight for the win today.
3:20pm Cheltenham - See Earlier Thread Post
4:00pm Cheltenham - CLOUDY LANE
Trainer Donald McCain said this horse was his best chance of the week. He's already had a winner in the Supreme Novices and in the Coral Cup. Coupled with a 2nd in the Champin Hurdle, a 3rd in the JLT Specialty Chase he's a trainer in very good form, and his best fancy must be respected. Was well held by favourite Chapotugeon in January but that was his first race in 21 months so he was entitled to be short of fitness. Won very easily next time out at Ayr over 25 furlongs, and with his stamina guaranteed (Grand National 6th) and a top amateur jockey taking the ride I think Cloudy Lane has a big chance today. I have stamina doubts regarding the favourite Chapotugeon, who's only ever won at to 23 furlongs. Cheltenham is a stamina sapping course and its usually the horses who have won at the distance or further that prosper here.
4:40pm Cheltenham - EMPIRE LEVANT
Was down the field in the Betfair Hurdle, but I think was well unsuited by a pace which was average at best. His 6L defeat by Champion Hurdle winner looking very good in context of his ability with a fast pace. Stays 17 furlongs well and that will make a difference here today, as will talented claimer jockey Harry Derham.
5:15pm Cheltenham - KID CASSIDY
Entered in the Arkle as late as the beginning of the week shows how well thought of this horse is. Very talented horse who's had documented problems (one of the horse that suffered electrocution at Newbury). Been going very easily as a novice chaser and this mark of 145 looks a little generous as he beat todays rival Kumbeshwar by over 3 lengths last time when not jumping too well and he's rated 144. Still relatively lightly raced and should have plenty more to come from this horse. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
1 30 ch PEARL SWAN didnt do much wrong against GRUMMETTI imo and stayed on up the hill well on only his 2nd outing BABY MIX was well back so i expect these 2 to fight it out again and think the P Nichols horse may be the 1 to benifit from the drying ground
2 05 RAYA STAR i realy liked the way this horse won at weatherby on gd grd, was traveling well over 19f when fell 2 out so i can see him staying on up the hill form behind p nihcolls top horse not bad
3 20 BURTON POINT i like all would love to see K STAR win but i backed the selection lto and he was never in the race till LONG RUN looked in trouble and then he was tenderly ridden ,todays race could be set up for him MIDNIGHT CHASE will go off on front with THE GIANT BOLSTER they wont be hanging about LONG RUN always makes a mistake and B Geraghty will be waiting for the turn for home this horse jumps for fun and must come on for his last run
4 00 CHAPOTURGION you might well as say this is trained by P Nicholls as its his sister yard and was well spoke of this morn won the jewson here a few years ago and seemed to love the track not so good here tbl but won easy nto and could be a sping horse
4 40 OSCAR NOMINEE as been crying out for this trip and fast grd 2.5l of cinders and ashes in hvy was a good run after a bad mistake no prob nto as won a race by 27l hard held could be another for the Hendersons
5 15 ASTROCAD brave win here lto will like the grd as won here and ascot on it if he keeps out of trouble should make the frame
had these in 3/4/5/6/ folds if they go in its the greek islands for me
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Posted: Fri Mar 16, 2012 1:21 pm Post subject:
1.30 Triumph Hurdle
baby mix, dodging bullets, ut de sivola (saver)
A hurdle race for the 4 year olds just a touch over the 2mile trip. Winner of this will usually go on target champion hurdle but not always successfully winners tend be well developed for their age.
Arctice reach has won few hurdle races, but hes average from his flat days and didn’t look that great coming off run in jumpers bumper last time. Asaid has won two races on this short, went to leopardstown were he came 4th and unlikely overturn form with all 3 of those ahead that day. Hollow tree didn’t beat countrywide flame by much and is held on last run by grumeti and pear swan. Urban de sivola for me is held on piece form on horse pearl swan abd grumeti have beaten. Shadow catcher has mixed form and tended race better on slower ground, held by hissabeet but the holds darroun on formbook. I watched baby mix defeat of saddlers risk, and baby mix took it up very early and travelled well and id find it difficult to see Saddlers risk overturn that, add to that baby mix haven won around here before.
Darroun im ruling out based on those irish formlines with hisaabaat etc. Im ight just rule out Grumeti he does have c&d win but he is held on form by Pearl Swan andi could see dodging bullets overturning form with him. I also nearly ruled out dodging bullets as i feel with just single run he is vunerable despite his good rating on the flat but factb he gave grumeti a race giving him 7lbs and was so goodo n flat i will back him. Balder scuces has no flat form and hadn’t tempted to meat any of todays opponents hes raced ascot which probably wont prepare him for todays test. Ut de sivola i think is most capable of irish raiders unraced on this good ground im hoping his French breeding shows thru.
1.30 - TRIUMPH HURDLE
There is not that much time left but I'm going to start my betting day with todays opening contest here at the festival over 2m1f and the one I like in here is SHADOW CATCHER (10/1) who could be good enough to sneak at least into on of those four places the bookmakers are going to offer us. This horse has won a hurdle race over 2m on heavy ground but wasn't prominent in all career starts. However, this horse is not the one to count on but he could be one to surprise to run at least into minor miney here. Shouldn't be ruled out too early as this is going to be a wide open and competitive contest. Carberry booked to take the ride again which is another positive for me as this combination worked out well in past. Todays conditions should suit and I've got the feeling that a small eachway bet couldn't be wrong at all.
4:40 - MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS HANDICAP HURDLE BOURNE (9/2) could be the one to be on in this tricky contest over 2m4f. He was successful in two hurdle races at 2m 3f on good to soft and soft ground. He has got very strong form and a decent chance to win todays contest here in my opinion. Todays extra furlong is another positive for me and I think that this horse is ready to win this today! This is going to be a tricky contest and it couldn't be wrong to put TONER D OUDAIRIES (7/1) into the swinger. This horse got massive support during the last days and should be able to be at least involved at the finish!
5:15 - JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL CHASE CHALLENGE CUP
No doubts, it would be fantastic to end this fourth festival day with a winner but this contest is going to be a tricky race over teh extended 2m and a few horses are with chances for sure. However, the one I like is a horse at long odds which is LUCKY WILLIAM (16/1) No doubts, he is not a horse to count on but he could be one to surprise in this open contest at such a light weight. I'm sure that he will be suited to todays big field and I wouldn't be surprised to see him running into one of those four places today. Very talented jockey Bryan Cooper booked to take the ride today who could help to improve a bit. _________________ ..i love this horse
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Posted: Fri Mar 16, 2012 1:30 pm Post subject:
2.05 Vincent O’Brien County handicap hurdle
raya star, olofi, citizenship, (Eduardo sol (backup)
Sailors warn has done his winning in lowly events good run form tailed off last 2runs and mark bit high considering. Alderwood will have champ on board but remains one who doesn’t look up to this level and might not take to the course.Lifestyle maybe popular with yard banging them in but last 2runs leave little to please and they were easier contests than today. Redera is from shrewed martin yard but not sure holding tactics will work for him even if returning to best form. With big weights i must rule out two from my list, starluck with just signle run this season, was ggood hurdler but not sure hes quiet 100%, moon dice has done well this season two wins but mark creeped up and others better weighted. Via Galilei goes for more combo mixed results this season and not got head in front off high enough mark to be considered to win, ubi ace has him on form book, and should run good race but not sure form of either and mclernon not ridden him before.
Local hero will always create interest forh is 2nd to simonsig but simonsig didn’t extend himself at all that day and that is local heros sole run this season. Desert Cry looks held by raya star and even some improvement would still leave him bit to do. Hes 5lbs better off but much distance ot make up for. Plan a was down field on citizenship on last run 3lbs might not make enough of difference for him, and jockey had 7lb claim that day too. Manifique etoile won 2 hurdle races before upping class . and coming 3rd, form that race not worked out too well this week and prefer look elsewhere. Ted Spread ran just last week and i feel he may not have been puished too yard but running on this turnaround is an ask and have been questions over some stables horses. Ifyouletmefinish is interesting with plenty formlines with triumph runners wouldn’t put off bet if they run well.
One im very much interested by lowdown weights is Citizenship off just 10stone 9lbs. Yard has won this before, won massive 30 runner handicap last start despite been hampered bit so copes well and stays and nicely in at weights for this. Olofi interests me as a c&d winner has had 4 runs this season going close when second to brampour here liking this track, weighted to reverse form with raya star now, who came 2nd to get me out of here who ran cracker to son of flicka. Fancy both can go well for us.
Eudardo sol may tempt me if prices are right, beat cockney mackem a nose in octobert, and been consistent sicne but not quiet as close to sire de grugy as my other two selections.
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Posted: Fri Mar 16, 2012 3:46 pm Post subject:
4.00 Foxhunter Chase
enterparadise, salsify(saver), My flora,
Won spend much time on this and stakes to minimum not great betting race i get too involved in. Chapoturgeon will probably be well punted for his form around here but not sure hes looked like staying type as done wining at shorter and cloudy lane could overturn up in trip. Oscar Delta is held by Salsify on form this so hard fancy chances of overturning. Boxing Geroge chased home baby run in april, took while but off mark last time but at 10years old younger horses preferred, cloudy lane is close matched with chapoturgeon but i feel age may tell and that neither will do well. Rowdy Rampage is Nicholls charge, won last 2runs but not won past 3miles yet and off track for long time sicne those wins.
Merchant Royal won well in thules in Jan but im not one fancy weld horses here and best that come in with February run. ROulez cool is a good talent but nearly 2years off course does little to instill much confidence.
Enter Paradise Poker will be in my bets, hes a e/w price for us. Runner up to fancied My Flora in May, and seemed keep improving with run last time. My Flora is very interesting getting weight all round, bar falling this year hes keopt winning all season, was held by chapoturgeon that day but staying is more his thing and will be coming on as race comes to finish.
Salsify is one i just cant take out all together the sweeneys could land a touch here ticks alot boxes has interesting form such as win over newbay prop. Comes in off impressive win.
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