Joined: 21 Sep 2008
Posts: 10372
Location: By The Thames on a warm Bank Holiday afternoon
Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2012 9:05 am Post subject:
2:05 Neptune Novices Hurdle - COTTON MILL EW @ 16/1
There seems to be some opposition for Cotton Mill which I do find difficult to understand as he really hasn't done anything wrong and won a competitive enough race lto to think that he might be on the premises here. He beat Ambion Wood on that occasion who has gone on to win a very competitive Novices handicap off a mark of 132. Surely he has place chances in a race although it will take a bit effort to beat Simonsig who has the best form in the book by a mile behind Fingal Bay. He is the value between the two though. Grouynd might be a worry for Monksland and I'm happy to take on Mullin's horses after a relatively poor first day of Cheltenham for his runners.
2:40 RSA Chase - GRANDS CRUS @ 6/4
I will surprise no one with my selection here but put simply Grands Crus comes out as by far the best of these on the strength of his form over hurdles and fences. I would take on Join Together as there have been murmerings about him preferring soft and his strongest form in front of Champion Court was when that rival was held up. First Lieutenant would have to be a worry over stamina and ground and Bobs Worth has been comprehensively beaten by the selection, jumping quite poorly at times, and also by Invictus who is a notable absentee from this line-up (and the one who I think could have given him most to do). Walkon is an interesting entry for Alan King, following Invictus's problems, trying a trip for the first time but it would be a surprise to me if he won. Early money is arriving for Grands Crus and I think it could prove to be right, despite the poor record of Feltham winners in this race.
3:20 Champion Chase - REALT DUBH EW @ 22/1
I am with Finians Rainbow antepost and I'm happy to stick with that level of interest and have another try with possibly the only other one here who can cause Sizing Europe problems, and that is the unexposed Realt Dubh. The draw back is that he has been off course for so long but he has won well off the back of breaks before and I'm sure that they would not be bringing him over if they thought he wasn't up to the challenge, he is a multiple grade 1 winner after all on oll sorts of ground and his ability to cope with further should put him in good stead for this. No kind of certainty but I can definitely see him running well at a price and I have to be against Sizing, for all he was impressive last year, at the price.
5:15 Champion Bumper - NEW YEAR'S EVE EW @ 6/1
Really? EW at such a short price? Yes because I'm just not confident with Bumpers but the pedigree of this one screams to me that he would be useful on the flat and stay all day and his appearances to date have been very impressive so I am happy to take a small interest. The trainer has really been one of the rising stars this season and I can see a good day for him (it does help that the horses he is getting are a cut above the usual).
Good luck all _________________ "The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)
3.20 Cheltenham - Sizing Europe [to win by 4 lengths+ 11/4 Hills 5pt NAP]
There have been 11 horses who have completed back to back wins in this race since 1959 and today Sizing Europe bids to do the same, he has shown his class this season in giving Big Zeb a 15 length beating last time and I cannot see how that form can be reversed even if the conditions are slightly more on the better side. This race has been won by huge distances in the past, we can use Master Minded as an example as he won this race by 19 lengths. If Sizing Europe wins this race he'll win it well like he did on his last start and he did win this race last year by 5 lengths going away and I think he can do the same thing this year, I did back him at 9/2 to win by 6 lengths+ a few weeks ago and that would have been the bet but SkyBet have shortened that one into 7/2 so we'll go for the safer bet which is Sizing Europe to win by 4 lengths+ 11/4 @ Hills
5.15 Cheltenham - The New One 12/1
The New One won a bumper at this track on his last start and that win came over a distance of 1m 6f 110yards. That was a decent contest as well as it was a listed contest and the third horse has since won a bumper by 5 lengths at Kempton, that third horse also runs in this race so that one looks held today by my pick. There should be some improvement to come and he does fit most of the popular trends (Unbeaten, Irish bred, won two decent sized bumper fields), so on that basis I think The New One can go very close today at decent odds
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Posts: 5178
Location: Ipswich, UK
Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2012 10:13 am Post subject:
2.40 Cheltenham – First Lieutenant (5pt Win) (NAP)
Bobs Worth is a favourite of mine and he has a chance here today, this runner is unbeaten on good ground for four starts and is also unbeaten here at Cheltenham from three starts, he has beaten Cue Card who put in a decent performance in the Arkle yesterday and has also beaten champion hurdle winner Rock On Ruby so he comes into the races with some very good wins behind him but he has struggled over this trip on his last two starts, he did win over it at the festival last year but up against tougher opponents in his last two and has struggled but both came on softer ground so on better ground today so he should feature. Grand Crus comes here and is favourite to remain unbeaten over fences after three straight wins which included the Feltham last time out at Kempton when he had Bobs Worth and Mr Moonshine well behind him that day, trip will suit and he is a three time winner here at Cheltenham, he is the class runner in the field and although he is 0-2 for runs at this time of the year he was only beaten by Big Bucks in both runs which is no disgrace, hard to oppose but I will today although if it had been softer ground I would not be opposing him. First Lieutenant is the one that I am going with here, this runner does not come here with records like Bobs Worth and Grand Crus but he is a class runner, he is twice a Grade One winner and he also has a win over champion hurdler Rock On Ruby, this will be just his second start over this trip with him finishing runner up behind Last Instalment at Leopardstown in a Grade One Chase last time out and cut out the errors and I believe he would have been much closer, ground will be fine and a previous winner at Cheltenham. He goes well this time of the year having won both previous starts in March and goes well off a good break. This looks like a very tricky race and there are a few in with very good chances so it will be down to who jumps the best today and for me today will be the day that First Lieutenant puts his name down in the Cheltenham history books with a win here.
Joined: 21 Sep 2008
Posts: 10372
Location: By The Thames on a warm Bank Holiday afternoon
Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:17 pm Post subject:
4:00 The Coral Cup - SON OF FLICKA @ 22/1, VEILED @ 25/1, CONSIGLIERE @ 40/1 (all EW)
This race has given me a headache all morning but its worth it I think because the satisfaction of dragging out a 40/1 winner when they come along can't be beat. This is the best quality and hardest handicap of the festival so I'm happy to go in with 3 and I was tempted by a further 3 as well; Spirit River, Stonemaster and Silverhand all missing out. Son of Flicka is my biggest hope, he is off a mark here which he is most capable off and has good course form when 2nd to Sir Des Champs in the Martin Pipe last year off a hefty 11-12 . His latest form needs to be taken with a pinch of salt but with trainer and jockey in good form he is a must bet for me. Veiled looks the stable's second string but I think it may have been a tough choice, she ran below par lto on softer ground but it will suit much better this time. She is a listed handicap winner over course and distance, form which has worked out well, and I don't think she is fully exposed yet or weighted out of this off the mark. Consigliere interests me as well and he is also apparently not first choice on jockey bookings but David Pipe tends to use the Cheltenham handicaps to blood new talent and he has had one ride for Pipe this year on which he won so he clearly knows one end of a horse from another and his 10lbs claim could come in very useful. The horse is ridiculously well handicapped in comparison with his chase rating and, although he is yet to win over smaller obstacles in this country, he did in France and the hurly burly of this type of race is right up his street having been placed at the last 2 festivals in handicaps over fences. He is a big price for one who officially could be so much better than his mark.
Good luck again... might need it in this one! _________________ "The problem with the future is that there are more things that could happen than will happen" - Plato (liberally paraphrased)
3:20 - Chelt - SIZING EUROPE NAP
"Big Zeb shouldn't be far away while Finians Rainbow is expected to go well. my vote though is with the favourite here, SIZING EUROPE. The selection may go off at odds on but I can't see anybof these stopping him. The ten year old, trained by Henry De Bromhead won the Arkle in 2010 when beating somesby by 3/4 of a length. Won this race last year when beating today's rival Big Zeb by 5 lengths. Has beaten that rival twice since then including lto at punches town in his prep race for this one, beating him 15 lengths. Looked very good lto in that easy win and has the beating of most of these and with Lynch on board again looks tough to beat. "
5:15 - Chelt - SIR JOHNSON
"Royal Guardsman and The New One must have good chances in this open looking race to finish off at cheltenham. The one that catches the eye though is SIR JOHNSON. The selection trained by Peter Bowen has won four races from four so far. The first couple of wins were at Ffos Las when beating Kanturk and Bhaltair by 1 3/4 lengths. They were followed up with a comfortable win at Perth when beating Lucia Bay by ten lengths. Still improving won again lto at Aintree when beating talkonthestreet by 3 lengths. Also had today's rival Royal Guardsman well held behind in 4th that day. This will be tougher no doubt but has not been out since that october win with this race their target. J Moore booked to ride and should go well in this open race."
Joined: 08 Apr 2005
Posts: 6408
Location: Dublin, via tipperary and galway
Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:48 pm Post subject:
1.30 - Lively Baron @33/1
"A lovely 20 runner chase of novices meaning hurdle form can be key indicator but being over 4miles must also be shown to stay and also be well handicapped. Alfie spinner was a decent hurdler, got off mark chasing at Chepstow, defeated both times since he hasn�€�t looked like hes screaming out for 4miles with so many others in the field. Cottage Oak is from same yard that won this last year, but this horse since winning at perth has lost his way since with last run just 10days ago been very poor. Daffern Seal started just the once over hurdles before going chasing he has limited experience in racing and with 20runners this can be big ask for hrose to go at this trip and do well. Our Island has won over hurdles and in points, but application of cheek pieces hasn�€�t livened him up and i prefer to look elsewhere. Soll is sent over for mullins hes another with a lack of experience, jumps well and should go well but might do better for the run later in career. Im going take on the nicholls runner he has won all 4 starts this season but has just 2 runs over fences, should like 4miles but id prefer to have my cash elsewhere. Court red handed has enjoyed his fences, but theirs nothing particular to his form, and with such strong field going be though. Four commanders interests based on his improvement chasing but hes struggled to get head in front, and not sure he wants this 4miles more so than the others. With my liking for teaforthree i think i will play some small bets on the two others allee garde and lively baron. Allee Garde was never much of hurdler but he has taken to his fences, Son Amix was decent win for him before running in some very high class type races 3rd both times. Was 9th here last year in race won by bobs wworth step up should suit him. Lively Baron has run well all start over fences gaining two wins, will like this test and while needs improvement no question it could be coming. Teaforthree is of interest he was behind on season debut to our island but a jumping error late on meant he was eased hes much better than the bare form of that. The quality man on board in JT, has gone well here before and likely to relish this test. Its though to rule out but universal soldier put in clear round last tiem but before jumping had troubled him when put under the sword. "
Joined: 17 Jan 2011
Posts: 2905
Location: Wigan, England.
Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2012 1:07 pm Post subject:
1:30pm - LIVELY BARON
I thought Donald McCain might have a good festival and on the evidence of yesterdays races it looks like he will after bagging a 10/1 winners and two placers at 11/1 and 17/1. I think Lively Baron can run a good race today for such an in form trainer. He's been campaigned all season around the 3m to 3m2f races and shown a good level of ability. A perhaps lucky winner last time out when a couple of lengths down in second place before the leader fell 2 from home leaving him clear. He seemed to be staying on similarly to his previous races where he seems to be caught flat footed at times before keeping to his task. With that in mind a massive test of stamina in this 4 mile long race should suit him better. He seems to prefer the good ground to, having twice lost out to one of the favourites for todays race Harry The Viking by around 5 and 8 lengths on Good-to-Soft ground, but I think he's capable of reversing the form over further and with better ground.
Not put a foot wrong since running out in his only Point-to-Point outing last May. Made his debut in a Down Royal bumper in November when backed to a 4/5 odds on favourite and winning like he should have been plenty shorter as he cruised home by 11 lengths. Went off as odds on favourite again on his second race, and was always in touch with the pack approaching home and kept on to win by 1 length. The result makes it seem a lot worse than the performance was under heavy conditions. He responded well when asked and was always the one who looked likely to pick up for the win with Carberry only asking when required. Upped in trip on his last performance and the bigger emphasis on stamina paid dividends in a Grade 2 hurdle. Patiently ridden in behind and closed down the leaders before the last before asserting to win comfortably. In winning that one he beat Lyreem Legend by 4 lengths easily who's next race saw him finish 2nd to Albert Bartlett favourite Boston Bob (albeit in receipt of 10lbs) but more importantly he also finished 7 lengths in front of todays rival Make your Mark off level weights. So with a form line through the 4th favourite of this race, this one should have around 10 lengths in hand. Obviously it doesn't exactly work like that, but I think Simonsig is the only one who presents a real danger to his horse today. I have my doubts regarding that one though with British bred horses doing very poorly in this race not having won once in the last 10 years and only placed 7 times from 41 runners (24% of total runners). Also after viewing the race against Fingal Bay again where he was travelling on the bit whilst the others were all off the bridle 3f out, he then didn't find anything and was soundly beaten for me, which doesn't give me confidence in him rallying up the hill. Monksland for me.
Makes his handicap debut today after being awarded a mark of 135 for this race. That mark was taken from his performance over 17 furlongs at Lingfield where he won readily in similar fashion to his previous novice hurdle over 16 furlongs at Uttoxeter. A slight forgiveness is needed for his debut showing over obstacles at Newbury in December when not jumping well and hanging a little when finishing fourth. However, he has raced since he was awarded his entry mark for today. The step up in trip last time out was always bound to suit being out of a decent French middle distance Dam, and was always travelling well before being slightly pushed out to win eased. The official handicapper has subsequently awarded him a mark of 144 for the future so he races at least 9lbs well in today. I say at least because the manner of his victory last time out may well have been underestimated with just a 9lbs raise at it was very easy. Regardless he officially races 9lbs well in today, and that's a more than generous advantage in a competitive handicap and I expect David Pipe may have been looking to do something like that to give him an outstanding chance in this race. _________________ D.Rogerson's Ratings D.Rogerson's Trend System
Last edited by drogerson on Wed Mar 14, 2012 1:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
This horse eased out a bit since Daryl Jacob got the ride instead of Ruby Walsh. I am not a specialist in working out French Ratings but ULCK DU LIN won over Hurdles with 8 lenghts giving away weight to two fillies which won their next starts. Then the horse won a chase with 5 lenghts against a horse that afterwards won a 52.000 Euro Handicap in Auteuil and then took second place in a 270.000 Euro Grade 1 at the same track. Reading that and regarding that Nicholls spared this horse for this Handicap I think that ULCK DU LIN must be well handicapped and should have an excellent chance to win this race.
Joined: 08 Apr 2005
Posts: 6408
Location: Dublin, via tipperary and galway
Posted: Wed Mar 14, 2012 1:41 pm Post subject:
2.05 – Novice Hurdle (Neptune)
Possibles : close house, felix younger, monksland,
19runners go post for this but no bookie has gone for 4places which is pity, its a 2m 4f race for those that opt out of the supreme in order to get a greater test.
Nelsons bridge is mccoys booking but hes just had the 2runs and alot more now on the plate. A key stat too look at are horses who are 5or6 so not older hurdlers who came game late. You want horse with good win record especially over the trip and comes in on form. Bumper form can be a good indicator. Fulin is one of the older hulrders at 7, he has just the single run this season a narrow win over brass tax, and im not sure that form will hold up. From that formline brass tax can likely be ruled out and hes alos well held by simonsig much earlier in career.Benefficient comes in off long shoot win over sous les cieux last time but that was one those days when it falls into place and i cant expect the same again. Im telling ruling out sous les cieux despite his beaten of gailleos choice, he likes bit cut and this ground will only be getting quicker. Cotton Mill has done all asked of him so far but faces stern test 60days off the track, he didn’t go bumper route and was a flat horse for Jarvis so 2miles 4f might be an ask at this track.With such tightness of this race batonnier might be so lucky this time out has course and distance win from January but this is greater ask of his abilty. Make your mark involves some guess work but on raw from with boston bob needs be doing better to get in the winners enclosure here. Both simonsig and monksland tick alot of boxes for me preference is for irish rider monksland who is unbeaten under rules, has looked good in all wins and coped with large fields more so than simonsig. All talk is he will go on ground too.
We then have ourselves 2 at a price to give us an e/w shout, felix younger is bumper winner thrown in deep and so far passing the tests. Ruby didn’t fancy but no reason he could not upset applecart. Close House is other with Pipes yard firing out well, he was 2nd to montbazon in a bumper, and while not run to this level that bumper run gives him quiet hopes at massive odds
Cant help but think that the price on this horse would be so much lower if it was trained by a more recognised trainer. It won a Class 6 maiden at Exeter very easily not coming off the bridle beating the second by about 10lengths. The second horse then won next time out and on saturday it was beaten a neck into 2nd in a listed bumper at Sandown.
With Paddy Power offering 4 places on this race the 28/1 looks like a a very good each/way bet.
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