Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 11:37 pm Post subject: Gr8 Britain v The World
Monday I started a write up for the bill, but by late Wednesday, three of the previewed fights will go to wasted. Frankie Gavin pulled out with flu early on today, then rumours (not confirmed as of yet) Alejandro Lakatos' Cleverly's opponent is out and now the worst news, Wladimir Klitschko has conveniently pulled out with a back injury.
Doesnt look like a bill worth paying for now, Khan v Maidana and Smith v DeGale will be good fights, but disappointing not to see Clev and Chisora in action, although they may face some journeymen at the last minute.
I will add the preview that's already completed Thursday or Friday, but to say I'm disappointed at this momemt is an understatement. _________________ Football and Boxing expert.
The Chisora fight is a big dissapointment, big Larry Olubarniwo has been added too the uk card, Degale .Brooke,Macklin and Bellew not to mention Ortiz and Khan, it could be worse mate.
Yeah Bellew v McKenzie and Ortiz v Peterson are also good fights and tbh Cleverly was in a gimmie anyway and I think will be given a replacement (Bellew, lol)... The Chisora fight is a shame, I think the whole German card may well be cancelled now, can't see 15000 people wanting to see CHisora fight a last minute replacement. If you consider the other PPV's they've had it isn't that bad, still not worth £15 but tbf I wouldn't of paid it if all the fights were on anyway
No I agree thought about it after and it's not too bad, peed off that Chisora isnt on. The German card will be cancelled, Chisora will never headline a bill there, nobody knows him and they wont wanna watch Afolabi. _________________ Football and Boxing expert.
Joined: 12 Jun 2005
Posts: 4442
Location: Liverpool
Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 8:25 am Post subject:
very disapointed about chisora/klitschko... still be a half decent card - really looking forward to de-gale/smith fight - i was tempted to go to the echo and watch but got a few mates coming round now..
Hopefully no more withdrawals, here's my full, now edited write up for Saturday's Sky bill
Huge night of Boxing for British fight fans on Saturday with two full World title fights, a great match for the British super middleweight and a host of up and coming talent on show in Liverpool, Germany and Vegas. I'll start my preview off with Frank Warren's 'Return of the Magnificent Seven' show in Liverpool.
I started this preview on Monday but today (Wednesday) Frankie Gavin pulled out of his fight with Dean Harrison, therefore I had to delete that part of the write up, which is a disappointment. I expected a Gavin win but a bout of flu has stopped that, Gavin wasn't expected to be on the live SBO bill anyway.
The first fight I'm going to preview now has home city interest as big Everton fan Tony Bellew (14-0, 9 KO's) defends his Commonwealth light heavyweight title against Prizefighter champion, Derby based Jamaican, Ovill McKenzie (18-7, 7 KO's).
Bellew has one of the biggest mouths in Boxing and a few fights ago was calling out Nathan Cleverly, despite the fact that the Welshman was and is streets ahead of him. The 'Bomber' was brought back down to earth in his last fight against the awkward Bob Ajisafe, with a less than sparkling Boxing display and he was put down on his backside in the fourth round. It wasn’t the first time in his pro career that Bellew had been down and that's why many people are doubting this guy, his defence isn’tt the best and neither is his chin. What's going for him here however is that the guy has performed really well in his last two fights at the Echo Arena, stopping the tough Jindrich Velecky and Kenyan Atoli Moore (Commonwealth title fight) in the first round. He can definitely punch and I think he will have improved a lot since that fight with Ajisafe in September. He will be out to impress in front of his home crowd and I'd expect a better Bellew display come Saturday.
His opponent is a very tough and game guy however and I'm sure Bellew is going to be in for the toughest night of his pro career. McKenzie on current form is just a place behind Bellew in the rankings and the Prizefighter competition he won was up at cruiserweight so this guy knows how to mix it with some big lads. He hasn’t been out since February but was impressive in stopping Billy Boyle in the first and his career seems to be going through a purple patch at the moment. McKenzie is a former holder of Bellew's belt winning it in September 2006 against Peter Haymer with a second round stoppage, in what was a really good win at the time but he lost it in his first defence against Dean Francis, who landed some flush shots to stop him in the first round. That's the only time he's been stopped and although McKenzie has nine losses on his record, he's lost just three of his last 16 fights, which tells you he's improved with age.
McKenzie is in great form and Bellew is going to be in for a hard night's work here in my opinion. McKenzie was beaten over eight by Ajisafe in September 2009 but it was close and the Jamaican is going to pose a different test to Bellew Saturday night. He's mixed it with stronger, tougher and more experienced guys than Bellew and having fought at cruiserweight he's bringing some power done with him. Bellew would win this on talent and ability, but his chin does worry and McKenzie is going to drag him into a fight here. Nathan Cleverly had to go through some tough fights like Tony Oakey in 2008 to get where he is and my feeling is Bellew will have a similar night on Saturday. I'll go for the Bomber on points but I wouldn’t rule out a shock here for the reasons already noted.
Bellew is 10/3 with Paddy Power to win on points
McKenzie win 9/2 with SportingBet to win the fight
Over 8.5 rounds is 10/11 with SkyBet
Matt Macklin (27-2, 19 KO's) doesn’tt get the Barker fight again on this bill and instead has to settle for a European middleweight title defence against Spain's Ruben Varon (35-5, 16 KO's).
Macklin had an easy defence on the Magnificent Seven show as he stopped the Georgian Shalva Jormadashvili in the 6th round, although to be fair he was a late replacement and Mack had trained for a much harder fight against Darren Barker. There's no doubt that Macklin is a fighter on the cusp of a world title fight, exploding back onto the scene since stopping Wayne Elcock in March 2009. I'm not sure what the training situation is with him, he has been down at the Wildcard with Freddie Roach in the last six months, which is great experience and shows what a top fighter he is but I believe he's remained true to Joe Gallagher, who has helped him so much and hasn’t trained a loser for about two and a half years.
Ruben Varon on paper isn’t a bad opponent on paper and I think boxrec have given this fight a somewhat harsh one star rating. He seems to have had his day, with the high point coming in 2003 as he fought Felix Sturm for the WBO middleweight title and less than a year after that he won the European light middleweight title with a close split decision over the current holder of that Lukas Konecny, who beat Matthew Hall on the Magnificent Seven bill. In March of last year he was stopped in four against current boxrec #9 Sebastian Zbik and that is a bit of a worry here as Macklin is #8 on boxrec. That's the only time he's travelled since 2003 and this kid has lost on both occasions away from home, both times in Germany, albeit against good fighters. He's won his last four fights but have been against nobody and I don’t think this guy has much left.
You cant underestimate anyone who's gone a full 12 rounds for a world title but that loss Varon had against Zbik last year really stands out and at that time Zbik was in a similar position to what Mack is in now, on the cusp of a world title chance and amongst one of the best in the division. Zbik also has just 10 KO's in 30 wins, while Macklin has 19 in 27, this is going to be a stoppage win because Macklin will be too strong for Varon and I can see him winning between rounds 3 and 6, it should be around the same round as Zbik.
Macklin is a very weak 1/5 with Betfred to win by stoppage
Macklin in rounds 1-6 5/6 with SportingBet
Macklin rounds 4-6 2/1 with Bet365
Under 6.5 rounds 8/13 with SkyBet
Next up is Nathan Cleverly (20-0, 10 KO's) who's very close to a world title fight as he faces a late of change of opponent from Alejandro Lakatos, to current European Union champ Nadjib Mohamed (23-1, 12 KO's) from France, which isnt much of change in terms of class. I'm not totally sure if the WBO interim title is still on the line.
Cleverly is the hottest fighter in British Boxing at the moment and takes a step down in class here from stopping German based Karo Murat in ten last time out in Birmingham. That fight was a real war and Cleverly started really well, but he got tired in the middle rounds and was shipping a little bit too much punishment. But to make a guy like that quit on his stool shows what a class act Cleverly is and it continued his run of stoppages, making it seven on the bounce since Tony Oakey took him 12 in a Commonwealth title fight. Cleverly is ranked #5 in the world by boxrec and is destined for a world title fight next year, but he needs to get past this kid first,
Mohamed has taken this fight on very short notice and he's not going to be anywhere near as prepared as he would like, but I suppose it's a very decent payday for him. The Frenchman looked good in the first defence of his European Union title in October, stopping Belgium's Djamel Seini in three rounds, a decent win but his opponent did come in overweight, so probably wasnt in the best shape. He's been dominant at home in France in the past and won the French light heavyweight title in June 2008 and made five winning defences of the title. Five of his last six wins have come by stoppage but his only loss came against the strong Thierry Karl in the French version of Prizefighter and it came in the first round.
I fancied Cleverly to beat Lakatos by stoppage because he's in great form with seven stoppage wins on the bounce and I cant see the underprepared Mohamed avoiding that on Saturday. On paper he's a decent opponent but he's nowhere near the world class that Cleverly is approaching and I dont think he had a fight lined up before the end of the year either, so he's well behind in terms of preparation for this one. Cleverly should have no problems here and I see him winning between rounds 5 and 8.
As this fight was only sealed late Wednesday night there is little Betting markets available today (Thursday), more should be available Friday/Saturday and you can use my prediction and some early odds as help.
Cleverly to win by stoppage is 1/8 with Stan James
Cleverly in round 7 is 10/1 with the same firm
Another fighter on the verge of a world title fight is up next as Kell Brook (22-0, 15 KO's) defends his WBO Inter-Continental title against Ghana's Philip Kotey (21-5-2, 15 KO's).
Brook's last fight was a real anti-climax against Michael Jennings with a cut ending it in the 5th round, although the fight never got going really. Brook moved up the WBO rankings with that win and also won the British title, but it wasn’t a great display from 'Special K'. This kid is a special fighter though and like Cleverly he's on a great run of stoppages with his last seven wins coming inside the distance. The last time he was at the Echo Arena he was very impressive in stopping the tough Pole Krysztof Bienias in six rounds and the worry for Kotey here is that Brook has trained for a much tougher opponent in American Michael Clark. Brook is a technically very good fighter and without bigging him up too much, he's very similar to Floyd Mayweather as he's very slick and doesn’t get hit very often.
Kotey was supposed to travel to Britain earlier on this year to face John O'Donnell, but that fight never came off. Being from Ghana you expect him to have a good solid chin and according to boxrec he's a southpaw, which will make him even more awkward for Brook. I'm not sure how the WBO have sanctioned this fight to be honest as Kotey has lost all three of his previous title fights and was beaten comfortably by Namibian fighter Bethuel Ushona on points in May last year for the WBO Africa title. He has fought in Russia before, so that experience will help him here but he got beat by a decent South African fighter for the WBC International belt in 2005 and that was by 11th round stoppage, therefore I cant see him getting near a shock win here.
From what I gather Kotey can hit and being a southpaw could be a problem for Brook as this fight was only made a couple of weeks ago. Brook will definitely win but I don't think he'll get this guy out quickly, he'll be taken to the later rounds and stop the Ghanaian between rounds 9 and 12, although a wide points win wouldnt be a surprise either.
Brook is 1/9 to win by stoppage with SportingBet
Brook is a pretty generous 7/1 with Bet365 to win on points
Brook in round 9-12 is 9/2 with SkyBet
Over 7.5 rounds is 15/8 with the above firm
The headline bill looks a real cracker as Scouser and British super middleweight champion Paul 'Smigga' Smith (29-1, 15 KO's) defends his title against Beijing Gold medallist James 'Chunky' De Gale (8-0, 6 KO's). This is a four star fight on boxrec and I expect fireworks in and out of the ring.
Smith will have all the crowd behind him and fighting at the Echo will be no problem for him as his last two fights have both come at the Arena in Liverpool derbies against the two Tony's, Quigley and Dodson. He hasn’t been at his best in those two fights and has shown more graft and determination, than pure Boxing skill and technique. He'll be well up for this fight and being the fighter he is, he'll look to really test DeGale for the first time and put pressure on him from the off. But let's be realistic, Smith isn’t the best boxer in the world and although he's had 30 pro fights and has a lot more pro experience than his opponent, having appeared on the Contender in America and been in 12 round title fights, I think he's up against it here.
DeGale started his pro career slowly but has looked better and better with each fight, showing a huge amount of ability. People doubted him in Birmingham last time out as he didn’t make weight at the first time of asking and people were saying that he had been enjoying himself a bit too much. He will have been very strict ahead of this one though and being a Jim McDonnell fighter, he will have been trained to do 12 rounds. His performance on the Birmingham bill was good though as he stopped ex Commonwealth title contender Carl Dilks in the first round. In terms of a common opponent these two have met Irishman Ciaran Healy, who Smith outpointed in December 2008, while DeGale stopped him in the first round back in July and that shows the difference in class. DeGale hits much harder and he's more clinical. He will have knuckled down for this and will be ready for a tough fight.
Other than experience I cant see any hope for Smith in this fight, DeGale has more ability and doing 12 rounds will be no problem despite having had just eight pro fights. DeGale is going to go far in this game and although it will be tough, he'll find a way to get past Smigga. Bringing Frank Warren in again here, I don’t think he would have put DeGale in with Smith unless he knew he could win, Smith is on as the big ticket seller for Warren but DeGale is the one with the ability and will make money for him in the future. Should be a great fight and Smith is tough, so DeGale on points for me here.
DeGale is 5/2 with SkyBet to win on points
Over 9.5 rounds is evens with Boylesports Paddy Power offer 13/8 for the fight to go the distance
Both fighters to be knocked down is 11/1 with SkyBet, I fancy a real battle and it might be a decent outside bet.
I had a write up for the Germany bill as well but that has been cancelled now after Wladmir's injury, gutted for Dereck Chisora and I was going to have a few quid on Del Boy winning the fight because I'm a huge fan of him and he was going to have a real go at the boxrec #1 heavyweight.
Rounding off this huge night of Boxing we head to Vegas for Amir Khan's début in the capital of Boxing. Before starting my preview for that fight, I will preview a potential future opponent Victor Ortiz (28-2-1, 22 KO's) who faces Lamont Peterson (28-1, 14 KO's) in a 12 round fight.
Ortiz who quit against Maros Maidana four fights ago in June 2009, despite flooring his opponent three times in what was a fantastic fight. Ortiz looked good last time out in September against Vivian Harris, knocking his opponent out with an uppercut, that after flooring him four times in the first three rounds. Before that fight he outpointed Nate Campbell comfortably over 10 rounds and connected with several power punches. I wouldn’t say Ortiz is as skilful as the likes of Alexander, Bradley and Khan in this division, but he's a serious puncher and like Khan has done, he'll learn from that Maidana fight.
Stepping in against Ortiz is Lamont Peterson who has just a loss against Timothy Bradley to his name and ability wise has the beating of Ortiz. In that fight with Bradley he didn’t do badly, he was outpointed and put down in the second, but came back strongly and tested Bradley's chin. This kid doesn’t mind a war but he's a former Golden Gloves champ, so the Boxing skill is certainly there. He's been well matched in his career and to be fair it was no surprise to see Bradley dominate him as it was a big step up for him and I don’t think Peterson is on par with the top five light welters.
Ortiz is going to test Peterson's chin in this fight, but I expect the man from Memphis to stand up to his opponent. As I said Peterson isn’t up to the standard of the top quality light welters and that's why I think Ortiz will get the better of him. That win over Nate Campbell was very good and his defence has improved since the Maidana loss. This is a good fight on paper and I expect Ortiz to get the win points.
Ortiz is 2/1 with SkyBet to win on points
Over 9.5 rounds is 4/7 with above firm
Amir Khan (23-1, 17 KO's) heads the bill by defending his WBA light welterweight crown against Argentina's big hitter Marcos Maidana (29-1, 27 KO's).
This is a fight that a lot of British Boxing fans and Khan doubters have been calling for because Maidana is a huge puncher. Khan has improved so much under the tutelage of Freddie Roach and he's been getting some great sparring, most notably with Manny Pacquiao, who he's been doing really well against, although it's known that Pacman is a completely different animal in a Prizefight. Khan looked very strong in his most recent fight back in May, stopping the tough New Yorker Paulie Malignaggi in 11 rounds. He was a picked, light handed opponent for Khan but Amir still looked good and completely outboxed the experienced Malignaggi. What's really interesting is that Devon Alexander fought Kotelnik in August and wasn’t as convincing as Khan was when he won the title, the judges scorecards show that.
You know what your going to get from Maidana, he's not the best Boxer in the world but this guy can bang and he's a bit of a Golden Boy nemesis having given Ortiz a real beating. He was an easy points winner over DeMarcus Chorley in August and he wasn’t totally convincing to be honest, I expected a much better display against an old fighter and one way short of world level now. Maidana knows he has to connect with Khan's chin here and will just keep coming forward, but I'm doubtful he's got the skills to beat a quality, Freddie Roach trained fighter. His only career loss came in February 2009 against Kotelnik and because in Germany you'd have to say he was unlucky as it was a split decision. He worked very hard in that fight but I think it kind of summed him up as a fighter, he hits hard but there is a lack of quality.
Khan has boxed lovely since he's been with Roach and his defence has been much improved. People are always going to question his chin but with more training and quality sparring that will have improved and his defence is now one of the best in Boxing. This kid just doesn’t get hit since he's been with Roach and in this fight he's going to use his speed. Maidana is going to be dangerous but I see this going to the later rounds and if Khan follows the gameplan, Maidana will tire and win with a stoppage in the last three rounds.
Khan a pretty generous 6/17 with BWin to win the fight
Khan in round 9-12 is 9/2 with SkyBet
Khan 4/1 to win a UD with above firm, superior Boxer in the fight
Both fighters to be knocked down 15/2 with SportingBet
One other thing to note from the Las Vegas bill, look out for two weight world champion Joan Guzman (30-0-1, 17 KO's) making a long awaited début at light welterweight. There is British interest in this fight as Guzman is trained by Manchester's Lee Beard, who did a good job with him in his last fight against Ali Funeka. _________________ Football and Boxing expert.
I'll look at three fights from the depleted package.
James Degale v Paul Smith
After only 8 pro fights the ex olympic champion will fight for his first major title, confidence is something Degale is not short of,boxing ablitiy and skill are not lacking either, a seamless switch hitter with fast hands and quick feet.
Smith is a battle hardened warrior 29-1-0 (15ko), with a wealth of experience to bring to the table, his last to outings have been all liverpool matchups against Tony Quigley ( split D win) and Tony Dodson, a bloody hard fought U/D win,
the one loss came unexpectedly against Steve Benall, two years ago ( loss points), at his best Smith is a nice boxer,perfering to work behind the jab and droppig in rights as well as hooks, stamnia and heart are not in question and it would be fair to say he has not been seen at his best for a while.
Prediction
Questions have still to be asked of Degale and maybe some will be answered on Saturday night, the atmosphere will be as chilly as the current weather inside the Echo arena with many hoping that Smith can wipe the smile off the cocky londoners face by taking advantage of Degales sometimes sloppy defence or taking him to places he hasn't been, test his stamnia heart and chin.
Degale 8-0-0 (6kos) has hight and reach over his opponent and with out question holds the better skill set, he is improving with every outing,
I dont feel Smith can out box his opponent he will be looking to keep the pressure on and drag things into the later rds, he's not the biggest puncher but has a good dig to the body he will want to rough up his opponent take him out of his stride and make him fight his fight.
But this could turn out to be a show case for the olympic champ i think he will feed off the hostile atmosphere, speed will be his biggest weapon on Saturday punching from angles fustrating Smith making him miss and looking to inflict damage to Smiths frigile cut prone eyes, if Degale has lapes in his defence then so does Smith dropping his right hand and leaving himself wide open for a left hook.
I may be proved wrong but i think Degale can take the next step on the path he hopes will end with a world title,
Smith will always be trying and will not go down easily but the speed and movement will see Degale the winner after 12 entertaining rds.
Degale win pionts 11/4 SkyBet (cuts could play a part)
Victor Ortiz v Lamont Peterson
Chief surport to Khan Maidana pairs two top contenders on rebuilding missions Ortiz is further down that road than Peterson this will be his fifth outing since his upset loss to Maidana while Peterson has his second fight since his creditable loss to WBO champ Timothy Bradley.
Peterson has plenty of skill happy to fight on the inside as well as long range in fact a lot of his best work is done on the inside.
Ortiz has shown he has learnt the lessons form his loss, a tighter defence and a lot less reckless, an easy win over tricky vetrain Nat Cambell was followed by an even easier blow out of shopworn Vivian Harris will have done a lot for his confidence.
Prediction
A win for either man will keep them on target for a crack at one of the champions.
Peterson will have the reach advantage against Ortiz, he found the speed of his Bradley to much to handle but will be more a home here, keeping things long would seem the way to go but he has shown a willingness to rumble and his body shots could play a part.
Ortiz to a proper puncher with power to end things even though his defence is better he is still open when he attacks and so able to be countered a good mover with snappy punches, this has the makings of a cracking fight with both able to win, i will just give the edge to Ortiz, the question mark about his heart will not be a factor because Peterson does not have the fire power to put him under that kind of pressure
while Peterson is good Ortiz has that little extra spark the extra power will make a diffrence and expect to see some knock downs but as he showed againt Bradley Peterson will keep trying.
Ko for Ortiz is always on the cards but i will go point after 12 entetaining rds.
After 5yrs and with 24 fights under his belt Amir Khan will face without doubt his most dangerous opponent to date, a truly lights out puncher, that has only had to go the distance twice in 30 outings.
Sometimes a loss is the best thing that can happen to a fighter and for Khan thats the case, two yrs since his shocking ko loss to Breidis Presscot the Bolton marvel under the guidance of Freddie Roach has looked a much more polished product,
Since winning the WBA title with a easy safety first display over Andras Kotelink he has defended twice Dimitry Salita was stopped in oneand last time out Paulie Maliggngi in 11.
Maidana 29-1-0 (27ko's) hit the head by stopping Victor Ortiz in 6 exciting up and down rds, two outings this yr have seen the icky Victor cayo stopped in 6 and a hard fought points win over Demarcus Corley.
Prediction
I get the feeling that even if Khan box's rings round Maidana people will say the Maidana was made for him and if he gets stopped it will prove what we thought all along namely weak chin.
Maidana's punches are desinged to do damage weather its a stright right to the chin or a hook to the body, his punches have hurt written all over them, but like a lot of punchers his defence is not the best , he;s been hurt and dropped more than once.
The one big question everyone wants answering is can Khan take a world class dig he's been flattened befor but maybe that was just luck or maybe he was struggling to make weight, some question his heart but although not tested at world level he has shown guts to get up off the floor blaze back and win.
If Maidana wins its by ko, and to do that it will be just one big shot or he must fnd a way to close the gap,
For Khan its what he does best box,box and box some more, i make no excuse for prefering boxers, the punchers are exciting but i love the skill of top boxing.
Amir has the tools to pass this test, the boxer will usually beat the puncher.
If you fancy Maidana 3/1 for the stoppage,
But i will take Khan on points.
I'm adding over 8.5 rds- evens- Coral.
Nice previews guys, I'm staying away from the majority of fights this weekend, I just don't think theres much value to be had and I'm torn on a few fights as well. I mean both Khan, Degale and Ortiz deserve to be favorates, but their outright odds are too prohibitve for me and I couldn't confidently pick the outcomes, plus all 3 of their opponents have a good shot at pulling off the upset. The rest of the Warren card is full of mismatches and opponents I don't know enough about with the exception of Bellew v McKenzie, 4/6 for Bellew by KO/TKO seems an OK price but I don't really rate him as highly as some, and after his last performance I wouldn't want to be too involved at odds on.
If I was to have a bet I would be leaning towards Degale by stoppage, possibly due to cuts as YB alluded to, I think 10/11 is a decent price for this. If that comes in I might have a bet on Maidana to beat Khan, I personaly think Khan stops him but the value play is Maidana, 11/4 outright or 15/2 for the KO (exact method). I did look at the both fighters to be knocked down market in the Khan fight but IMO you have to hope Khan scores the first knockdown for that to come in, because if Maidana does tag him and put him down, barring a flash knockdown which I don't envisage, Khan either won't be getting up or will be going back down again very shortly imo.
Out of interest Welshie, do you back all the props you've mentioned, I'm guessing not as on some it just wouldn't make sense, so just wondered which ones you actualy bet on yourself, or is it just a case of outlining what you think may be decent bets?
Good Luck both of you anyway, hopefuly we see some good fights, and nothing like the Randall Bailey fight tonight!
Mostly I'm just saying what I think would be decent bets and people can follow it up if they want, but tonight I'm thinking of going on Bet365 and doing an acca on the rounds over/under _________________ Football and Boxing expert.
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