Colin Lynes v Junior Witter

[drobgod]

There is some exceptional value to be had in this fight that will be screened on Channel Five Saturday evening.

Junior Witter is now a shadow of the man that fought the likes of Timothy Bradley and Devon Alexander in 2008/9 as anybody that witnessed his performance in a recent Prizefighter tournament will know only too well.

Witter is fast approaching 39 years of age and this fight appears as though it will be no more than a last decent pay day before he retires from the ring.

His opponent Colin Lynes has had a new lease of life recently, helped by his father/son trainers Jimmy and Mark Tibbs who had Lynes in superb shape for his last contest in which he defeated Lee Purdy.

Lynes has the prospect of a possible European Title shot on the horizon should he emerge victorious from this contest and in my eyes there is no way he will let that chance slip by now.

Lynes will work at a rate that will be far too uncomfortable for Witter and in my opinion could possibly have this fight won inside the distance.

This is where the value bet lies because Betfred were yesterday offering 8/1 on Lynes winning inside the distance. I relieved them of those odds and then went in again at 7/1. At the time of writing he's been shortened to 6/1, but that still looks far too big especially when you consider Stan James are only 11/4.

Does anybody share this opinion or indeed have any news on either fighter??

[TeddyT]

The 6/1 for Lynes to stop Witter definitely looks like decent odds.

Witter was deeply unimpressive in June's Prizefighter contest and his one fight since then only adds to the concern, despite him registering a win. He only managed a points victory over a guy with a 9-12-2 record who has lost a further five times since fighting Witter!

Also, there must be a huge doubt about Witter's stamina considering he hasn't fought for twelve rounds since losing to Timothy Bradley four years ago.

[drobgod]

Very good points Teddy. Sometimes with betting you have to back the value whether it wins or not and 6/1 for a Lynes stoppage is definitely value.

[ybsteam]

Intresting point of view, and anything is possible, if you take the way he quit against Devon Alexander at face value, but i will be amazed if Lynes gets the stoppage, in fact i go the other way, the more likley stoppage comes from Witter who has by far the greater punch,

I do like Lynes for this fight, but their's no value aside from the stoppage, as you've pointed out, that said Witter best priced 3/1 the win and 11/2 the stoppage, what ever happens is cracking value for those that want a punt.

[drobgod]

I can see what you are saying but I just think that every fighter reaches a point where they go past their sell-by date so to speak. Boxing is a hard game and all those punches over the years take their toll.

Look at Jason Booth when he fought Scott Quig recently, he's a guy that has taken a lot of stick over the years and was stopped by Quigg when you know only too well Quigg would never have stopped him a few years earlier.

I think this is a last hoorah for Witter and unless he puts Lynes away early will lose heart towards the middle of the fight. Lynes will work relentlessly from that point on and in my opinion either stop him or at least look like he may stop him.

We'll see, but it's great listening to opinions before the fight and seeing what happens. Good Luck with your bets.

[cbris78]

The big difference in Booth v Quigg though was it was a hungry, young, relentless fighter taking on a veteran guy in what at the time was a mismatch. This is 2 veteran guys and Lynes has never had much of a dig, not stopped anyone in 5 or so years...

I wouldn't rule it out because Witter looked beyond shot against Puio in Canada, consistently throwing himself on the floor and blowing after 3 rounds. Puio didn't even look like he was any good himself so maybe theres a touch of value there but I don't think the odds are far off being wrong.

[drobgod]

Like I said in an earlier post I got 8/1 originally and then some 7/1 and I do really think that is way overpriced.

I wouldn't want to Lay any bigger than 5/2 myself. I agree Lynes doesn't punch that hard, but how many times have we seen lately the ref step in when a guy is on the ropes taking punches non-stop?

I don't think Lynes can knock him out, but Lynes work-rate could be the key here. A relentless barrage of punches once Witter tires could be the thing that ends this fight before the final bell.

[ybsteam]

Nice to have a bit of banter pre fight, good comments everyone,
Good luck guys.

[drobgod]

I think it's about time us Boxing fans got chatting on the forum a bit more.

Sensible opinions and information can only help us all.

Good Luck All

[welshie1]

Would be better if OLBG gave us better markets, Boxing has very much been second grade and barely improved, but Darts (introduced at the same time) has a good few markets when it comes down to the Premier League.
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Football and Boxing expert.

[cbris78]

Yeah I think you have a decent chance of landing it, was more objecting to the Quigg vs Booth comparison tbh. Witter would struggle to do 12 rounds shadow boxing now, I honestly thinks he's that far gone so if it does hit I reckon it will be late, maybe his corner will pull him out or the ref will of just seen enough of him chucking himself about as I don't think Lynes can particularly hurt him. Going to be an ugly fight with some big swings and misses and then clinches from Witter I expect. If there was an option to bet by RTD like Sky sometimes have I'd definitely have a go on that.

[cbris78]

Bit of a U Turn, lol, but I've just re watched some of the Puiu fight and Witter is completely gone, taken a piece of this at 6/1, there's a few ways I could see this ending inside the distance, RTD or DQ probably more likely than an actual TKO.