Fairfranco's olbg v the bookies 08/09 thread

fairfranco · Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:00 am Post subject:

another loser.

Quite amusingly having talked over the decission of over 2.5 or Spurs win and writing the overs off due to the spurs better price and the anticipation of Spurs probably winning 2-1.

I wrote off a Fulham 2-1 win and what happens....BOOOMM!!!

OH WELL!

fairfranco · Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:59 am Post subject:

Week 15:

Going to try to put a bit more effort this time.

Firstly lets write off 2 games, Chelsea v Newcastle and Liverpool v Fulham, match odds are too low to interest me, both could be 2-0 or could havemore. I'd say Liverpool 2-0 wouldn't suprise me but not seeing any value. I'm after a winner so long shot scorer/correct score type bets aren't pulling me in.

Next

Man City v Arsenal

Arsenal Arsenal Arsenal, who can ever predict what they're going to do?!

History:

Arsenal's last 5 games at City have given them 4 wins and a loss. Last 5 at Arsenal have been 3 to Arsenal and 2 draws.

Recent form:

Man City - 4-0-2 at home (2 of those being European games, 1 against Stoke)

Arsenal away - 2-1-1

Man City have been tough to call as late, can play very well or very poorly and as they showed against Hull very sloppy. One thing they are good at is scoring goals. They've scored 26 goals in 13 games and 16 of those at home, only Man Utd have scored more home goals.

Arsenal have had some poor results but Man City are an attacking team who I feel will suit Arsenal and mean they can score goals against them. Should be an entertaining game and I think a few goals.

Odds agree with me with just 1.73 on the over 2.5.

My bet here would be Arsenal to win - 2.25

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Boro v Bolton

I thought Boro looked ok last week though playing a very different game to what they will this weekend as against Everton it was all counter attack stuff. Both teams very mixed fortunes and while I think Boro should win I don't have any great confidence in them.

Leave

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Stoke v West Brom

The big promoted side battle and a major 6 pointer for both teams. Stoke have been in excellent home form 4-1-2 in last 6 with a win against Arsenal and acceptable losses to Chelsea and Everton. Broms away is 1-2-3 and their home isn't much better they've tried to play good football and against Chelsea they did play well but their game isn't quite to the level of most (or maybe all) of their Premiership sides.

In the last 2 seasons Stoke have won 3 out of 4 of the games against West Brom with the other being a draw.

I don't see West Brom winning and the best I see is a draw.

Stoke @ 2.29 seems like a resonable pick here.

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Portsmouth v Hull

I think there's some value in Hull here, Pompy aren't doing badly despite the loss of Redknapp though the last 2 home games haven't gone well with a loss against Wigan and a draw with Fulham.

Hull were going along brilliantly until they came up against Chelsea and Man Utd they then followed it up with a loss home to Bolton. They looked decent against Man City though sloppy errors both cost them and put them back in the game! This is their first away game since Man Utd and they'll be hoping to get the form back on track.

I'm personally going to have a small punt on Hull to win this but i'm not overy confident, the handicap is quite enticing.

My bet - Hull + 0.5 @ 2.08

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Sunderland v West ham

Another leave for me. West Ham are in poor form but haven't looked all that bad when i've seen them, neither team has any real consistancy.

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Spurs v Blackburn

I'm all for Spurs here, Fulham aside they've been in fine form since Redknapp and will look to bounce back against a struggling Blackburn side. It really doesn't seem to be working for Ince at the moment who has taken a good top half side and really struggled to get results. Currently in the bottom 3, a results for Spurs would take them above Blackburn so an important game for them.

Spurs home - 4-0-1

Blackburn away - 2-2-1

Expect a spurs win and over 2.5 goals (rings a bell!!!) am I going to go with the same as last week?! probably not.

My bets:

Spurs to win @ 1.8

Over 2.5 @ 1.75

fairfranco · Posted: Sat Nov 22, 2008 1:44 pm Post subject:

i'm put off Arsenal by their suitation at the moment.

Going to go with Spurs.

Stake a confident �300

Back Spurs �300 @ 1.8

Bank remaining after 100 top up = �528

fairfranco · Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2008 4:22 pm Post subject:

Wahey it's a winner!!! Win

Spurs pay off this time for me and I win �240

Bank after week 15 = �1068

fairfranco · Posted: Fri Nov 28, 2008 4:42 pm Post subject:

Week 16:

Top up - bank now = �1168

Some tough games this weekend with 3 derby matches and some relegation potential battles.

Stoke and Hull is a definate leave for me with Stoke having an oustanding home record and Hull having a very good away record. Villa should beat Fulham but Fulham are playing well at the moment and while they aren't good away from home I feel the price isn't great value.

Boro and newcastle are too hard to predict for my liking. I don't really want to get involved in either the Manchester or London derby's as both Man City and Arsenal have been tough to call recently and with the added incentive or league positions and local rivalry it becomes a hard pick.

Spurs v Everton should result in overs based on both teams form though yakubu is Everton's only fit striker this weekend and while this one is likely both have suprised in the last couple of games with low scoring matches.

Liverpool should beat West Ham but I can see the Hammers giving them a good match and I wouldn't want to put my bank either with liverpool or with the hammers handicap.

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A couple of interests:

Sunderland v Bolton

sunderland have picked up just 3 points from their last 6 games, a solitary win against Blackburn with 3 home losses coming against West Ham, Blackburn (league cup) and Portsmouth.

Bolton haven't been doing too badly recently with 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 and have a resonable record away from home with 3 wins and 4 losses.

No injuries for Bolton while keeper Craig Gordon is still out for Sunderland while other's now look to be back having played reserves this week.

To me Bolton win looks like value @ 3.3

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Portsmouth v Blackburn

Blackburn are on 4 losses from their last 6 games the only win coming against Sunderland in the cup as well as a draw away to West ham. They are 19th in the league and Ince is clearly struggling with the jump up the ladder he's taken in taking on the Blackburn job.

Portsmouth have suffered by letting in late goals in a lot of their games and non more so than last night when let an astounding 2-0 lead agaisnt AC Milan slip away in the last 10 minutes. Even still they played very well dominating the game with a lot of confidence and while Adams is yet to record a home win I don't think it'll be long. The Pompy fans should be in high spirits after the excitement of Thursday and if they (the crowd!) perform anything like they did in that game it'll be a place Blackburn won't want to be!

Defore and Kranjcar should be back for Pompy.

Pompy @ 2.1

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It's a tough call, both look like value picks for me and the 3.3 is definately a tempter on Bolton however I'm going to go with Pompy, Sunderland can perform on their day and Bolton aren't a team I'd like to rely on. Both good bets though.

Stake to be �300 again, pretty confident but trying to build a bank without blowing too much.

Week 16 bet - Portsmouth to beat Blackburn �300 @ 2.1

Remaining bank = �868

fairfranco · Posted: Sat Dec 06, 2008 1:59 pm Post subject:

Week 16 wins Win

After throwing away a 2-0 lead Pompy manage to scrape a 3-2 win!

Week 16 profit = �330

Bank after week 16 = �1498

fairfranco · Posted: Sat Dec 06, 2008 2:02 pm Post subject:

Week 17:

A bit late doing this this week.

Week 17 top up, bank = �1598

I'm going to take Pompy again, I think they can beat West Brom, they're playing well at the moment and despite letting in a lot of goals especially late on they should have the quality to see them past West Brom. 2.7 seems like a decent enough price.

Stake of �300 again.

Bet Portsmouth to beat West Brom �300 @ 2.75

fairfranco · Posted: Fri Dec 12, 2008 5:06 pm Post subject:

Not this time for Pompy as they come back from 1-0 down to draw 1-1.

bank after week 17 = �1298

Week 18:

Bank top up = �1398]

main interests today are Man City and Everton over 1.5 or maybe over 2.5, spurs v man utd under 2.5.

However my bet for this week is Wigan to beat Blackburn. Wigan have been doing well of late especially at home with a 3-1-2 record. Blackburn have a 1-2-4 away and are really struggling with only 1 win in their last 12 games home and away.

2.1 seems like a resonable price.

Stake �400, i'm fairly confident plus i'd like to see myself getting somewhere towards profit!

Back Wigan to beat Blackburn �400 @ 2.1

fairfranco · Posted: Sat Dec 20, 2008 11:15 am Post subject:

week 18 wins Win

Nice easy win their for wigan with a 3-0 win against Blackburn.

Week 18 wins �330

Bank after week 18 = �1728

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Week 19

Top up bank = �1828

Well there's a couple of games that i've written up on the Saturday thread that i'm fancying. Blackburn is my choice of most likely match win for today but villa and Fulham both represent some value.

here's my write up's again:

a pretty tough set of games this week. I'm in a game where I need to pick one winner every week and I narrowed it down to the below 3 games though none would be regarded as "certs".

Man City were also on my list but due to their poor away form and Robinhio being out I decided it wouldn't be a great pick.

Fulham v Middlesbro - Fulham to win @ 2.25

Two pretty low scoring sides who have been in decent form of late. Fulham have had a lot of draws but some very good results at home with a 5-2-1 home record this season, one of the best in the league.

Middlesborough's away record isn't anything special at 2-2-2 for the season.

Zamora returns for Fulham a player who I think has looked pretty decent for them when i've seen him. He's only scored 1 this season but looks lively in creating things for Fulham who played some really good football last time I saw them.

I think this will be a tough game and could well end a draw but I feel 2.25 is decent value for the Fulham win (value checker agrees and prices 2.4).

Blackburn v Stoke - Blackburn to win @ 1.85

I can't say Blackburn have had a good season or that they have any form but they are a side that have under achieved with an inexperienced manager. Look at how spurs changed over night with a new manager and I think you'll see how Blackburn can pick up.

Santa Cruz may look like he wants an exit but both Derbyshire and McCarthy have picked up goals this season as well as plenty of the squad picking up 1 goal each.

At the start of the season most would have said Blackburn would be beating Stoke at home, I feel that their price has some value in it because of their poor season but as many have already mentioned the new manager syndrome could make all the difference.

Stoke haven't won any away games this season just the 3 draws and only 5 goals conceeding 17 showing that while their home record has been outstanding their away is poor.

Dave Kitson faces a fitness test for Stoke and Sidibe, Court and Liam Lawrence are out.

West Ham v Aston Villa - Villa to win @ 2.45

Zola's had a tough time since joinning West Ham, after good early results he's struggled to get results and it was a suprise to most that they held the lead for a long time before getting a good away draw at Chelsea.

I think it's that valuable point that made me decide not to make this my pick as the win for the week. West Ham have looked pretty decent though Zola's comments that if they play good football results will come doesn't necessarily ring true when you speak to West Brom or even Arsenal fans.

I fancy there could be goals in this and to be honest i've been edging towards a draw tip but I've taken on Villa I feel the attack they have will have the power to get goals against West Ham who have conceeded 13 goals at home this season

No major new injury news, Villa rested most of their first choice players in the UEFA cup game this week, West Ham are still without Ashton, Dyer, Gabbidon and Tristan. Villa are without Carew.

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I want to get a win in and try to get myelf into profit for the season. I fancy Blackburn as a good bet and so am going to go with a big bet on that one.

�700 the bet.

Back Blackburn to beat Stoke �700 @ 1.85

Bank after bet = �1128

fairfranco · Posted: Fri Dec 26, 2008 12:15 pm Post subject:

Week 19 wins Win

easy peasy for Sam on week 1 with Blackburn as they win 3-0.

Week 19 profit = �595

Total bank after week 19 = �2423 (sounds like profit to me!)

Week 20 - after reading the rules thread it appears i'm entitled to have a bet on the boxing day fixtures with one of my many missed bets. So no top up here but I will be placing a bet.

Right...I don't often go with Everton (my team) who have all too often let me down in the past however they've played pretty well in the last 3 games despite not having any strikers. Against the 10 men of chelsea they attacked them well and could have taken the 3 points. I think against boro who's form is patchy they should have enough to take the points.

Everton have however now added Joseph Yobo to the list of injuries as well as Leon Osman who is still feeling the after effects from the England Captain! No strikers are back so Cahill remains the front man.

My Bet �300 on Everton to beat Boro @ 2.94

fairfranco · Posted: Fri Dec 26, 2008 6:17 pm Post subject:

a 1-0 win for the toffee's secures me a decent profit.

bonus catch up bet profit = �582

Bank now = �3005

fairfranco · Posted: Sun Dec 28, 2008 12:14 pm Post subject:

week 20:

Bank with top up = �3105

Once again running a bit late with my bet! Looking through the games I fancy a straight bet on West Ham. They've come off the back of a confidence boosting 4-1 win at Fratton park and they will be looking to get their first home win in quite some time.

I'm going to go a small stake on it, West Ham are still looking to find form.

Back West Ham to beat Stoke �200 @ 1.8