tipstonga OLBG v The Bookies 08/09 thread

[tipstonga]

sorry Dady if it is not the best way for you to read odds but I am used to it and it was very used last season at OLBG vs The Bookies. Also gecko uses it too at present.
Any way I shall try to express my self conceptually such that the difference is seen.
Thank you for your intention to help.

good luck
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tipstonga
April: back US Pro ; coming back blogger
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[tipstonga]

Again not lucky with my final choice

Blackburn also wrong but Everton well. Others that caught my eye:MCity and MUnited yet to be played.

bet lost
bank 0 geckoins
W/L 0/2
LSP -2

congratulations to the winners
good luck
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tipstonga
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[tipstonga]

Well the other two come so I am bad yet in this game but happy elsewhere.

Lets begin the work ordering the results by their confidence, imo of course

Ar home win 0.50
Ch home win 0.41
Mi home win 0.62
Hu home win 1.5
Li away win 1.27
Ev home win 1.1 overs interesting here
WB away win 3.55
Su home draw 2.4
Bl away win 2.1

I shall discard the 3 first cause I am looking for a near evens -or more- value bet. Also I shall forget here about the 3 at the bottom for their risk though I think they will come and odds are interesting, but I have been deeply hurt last two weekends and I need a success.

So by now we have

Hull vs Wigan : the best newcomer against the punished survivor of last season. Hull is unbeaten and managed a draw away against the inspired Blackburn, you can name it luck but I see some good tactics there. Wigan has lost both games. None of them have conceded too much; Hull scored 3. Hull is focused in Premiership and had lost this Tuesday 26 their League Cup match after time by a penalty.

Aston Villa vs Liverpool : it can be said in behalf of Villa (before John Mac come to tell me) that AV has made a nice punch of goals against MCity but the later had not shown powerful away lately. Also that AV lost in the last minute last match; have not been this match against Stoke the argument would have mean a lot in favour of AV chances, but it is the case that precisely what Stoke got can be got easily by a team with Torres in their side. Liverpool wan this match 0-1 an year ago.

Everton vs Portsmouth From 2003 to date in 10 h2h Pompey wan 1 home 1 away and managed a draw last time home; last two at Evertons were by 3-0 and 3-1( March 2008). Blackburns victory surprised many and Everton will try to recover the spirit at home from the beginning. A hungry home Everton will be more difficult to contain than an uninterested MUnited.
Portsmouth with five goals in the bag seems out of focus this season and have scored none, were not so the overs goal bet would not be so interesting (@1.2) but as said Everton can do it alone.

Lets now think about, read others suggestions and then make a wise choice.

take notice that decimal odds without stake are used all along this thread

good luck
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tipstonga
April: back US Pro ; coming back blogger
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[tipstonga]

I think all my three selections (black) are equal to come and confident. I shall take the larger odds then. But also I asked myself, is Wigan (beaten home by Chelsea) more than Fullham (winner home over Arsenal) to do best than them? And, is mere luck drawing away a side like Blackburn ?. From a more subjective point of view I feel that Hull enthusiasm to have a nice season within the big boys will make them defend my money best than others and they will not let that a pair like Wigan steals their glory home.
So

bet Hull v Wigan home win
odds 1.5 (Bet365)
stake 100 geckoins

bank now 0

thank you John Mac for your instructive comment and objectivity

good luck
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tipstonga
April: back US Pro ; coming back blogger
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[tipstonga]

Congratulation winners !
Sadly I am not in your group and I think there had been only a few.
A disrupting weekend indeed. Hull win! not even close.
At least Arsenal wan but not all my 3 "green" bets (Chelsea failed, Boro ok).

bank 0
profit -300 geckoins
W/L 0/3 , LSP -3


4th week bank 100 geckcoins
a new opportunity happy again
May be internationals help me
With this bank I have not to worry about the stake, less work

good luck
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tipstonga
April: back US Pro ; coming back blogger
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[tipstonga]

I am sorry I could not write my thoughts here this week. Tonight I have wrote -perhaps too much- for my general blogs Do Not Fear Internationals on the subject, foundation of my choices can be found there.
There are imo many confident bets so obvious that they do not pay, the fixture looks like being prepared to begin with the easier games so it ends with greater emotion.
Interesting bets are Portugal-2.5 AH and Liechtenstein+4 AH (there were many tricky handicaps) and also Ibrahimovic firstscorer if you like bigger shots or, in the other side, Sweden win has an interesting price(0.62).
I decided to take the first one as being very confident without being below evens. So

bet Malta v Portugal Portugal -2.5 AH
odds 1.07 (Bet365)
stake 100 geckoins (I have no more)

bank now 0

good luck
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tipstonga
April: back US Pro ; coming back blogger
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[tipstonga]

A win at last Malta 0 Portugal 4.
107 well deserved geckoins
Fortunately I forgot about all other suggestive bets and take this one. Also those bets I went with big stake went well (this and Spain) but I have lost LSP to be sincere, nothing can be completely good .

record W/L 1/3 ; LSP -1.93
profit 107 geckoins
stake 100 geckoins
new week 100 geckoins

week 5 bank 307 geckoins

good luck
_________________
tipstonga
April: back US Pro ; coming back blogger
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[tipstonga]

take notice that decimal odds without stake are used all along this thread


Not an easy week end I think.
The championship has been cut off by the internationals and the start has not been well defined.

I am almost sure that Liverpool v MUnited will be a draw, but at the same time a draw can easily cease being a draw (not to mention how quickly Portugal victory turned into a bouncing disaster in the last 5 minutes ) so I am considering with equal eyes

Liverpool v MUnited draw @ 2.2 Centrebet and

Liverpool win or draw @ 0.53 StanJames

I am also very confident about Everton but should wait to read about Yakubu state, meanwhile I write down this one as a possible choice:

Stoke vs Everton 1x2 away win @ 1.29 PaddyPower

Lets think about them

good luck
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tipstonga
April: back US Pro ; coming back blogger
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[tipstonga]

Careful reviewing of historical data apart me of the Stoke game.
Also my expectations about Li v Mu changed. There has been only 1 draw in 10 matches and the previous to that was 5 years earlier. Great majority favour MU and a to nil result. Six 1-0 (3 MU away, 1 MU h, 1 Li a, 1 Li h), a 2-1(MU h), a 0-0 (Li h), a 2-0 (MU h) and a 3-0 (MU home 2008).
In 3 rounds Li has made 3 and conceded 1 , MU played 2 made 2 received 1.
Moreover the came back with team disconnection and stars being tired for playing and flying make us think of few goals.
Then it appears as confident and also with value the under goal bet. I shall make it now cause I am afraid it will loose price. When voyagers get into practice and problems appear.

So I bet:

event: Liverpool vs Manchester United
bet: goals under 2.5
odds: 0.6 Centrebet
stake: 205 geckoins

new bank 102 geckoins


good luck
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tipstonga
April: back US Pro ; coming back blogger
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[tipstonga]

Better face it as soon as possible, wrong again .
Any happiness last 3 minutes, the early goal of Tevez was a bad cloud to my hopes.
Well done Kankeano!

record W/L 1/4 ; LSP -2.93; profit -398 geckoins

bank 102
new week 100 geckoins
week 6 bank 202 geckoins

good luck
_________________
tipstonga
April: back US Pro ; coming back blogger
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[tipstonga]

Week 6
I think that things will tend to settle in the usual way. Tuesday Ch.League showed big teams returning to their job not only english ones. Yet to be confirmed by Wednesday matches.

Next week end :
Sunderland vs Boro uncertain probable home win avoid
West Ham vs Newcastle uncertain probable draw avoid
Liverpool vs Stoke easy home win
Blackburn vs Fulham probable home win
Bolton vs Arsenal easy away win
West Brom vs Villa uncertain probable away win by not more than one
Chelsea vs Man Utd simply avoid it
Spurs vs Wigan probable home
Man City vs Portsmouth uncertain probable home win avoid
Hull vs Everton probable away

I have made my mind about where to look -green, blue, perhaps black- but yet did not found a bet I like.


good luck
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tipstonga
April: back US Pro ; coming back blogger
Forum Challenges fan

[tipstonga]

After analysis of the week end good bets [ full view here ] I concluded that the best bet both confident and with value is Arsenal's one. Bolton being unbeaten home induces to confusion and (fortunately) has risen the odds but Arsenal has been the size of a champion since their failure against Fulham and will not have trouble to finish this match wining.
Comparing with others Spurs and Villa -though interesting, direct win the first and double chance win draw the second- show the problem of being playing UEFA Cup close to Premiership and with less replacements than bigger teams.
Liverpool though confident has too low odds at least for the present stage of this project.

So
event: Bolton vs Arsenal
bet: away win
odds: 0.64 PartyBets
stake: 200 geckoins

new bank : 2 geckoins

good luck
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tipstonga
April: back US Pro ; coming back blogger
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