dmachine83 OLBG v The Bookies 08/09 thread

[dmachine83]

opening balance - £100

[dmachine83]

Probably the most difficult to pinpoint value as the first week results are so unpredictable.

So maybe best to keep it away from straight game bets:

I like Peter Crouch to score anytime against Chelsea @ 4.5. (Paddy Power) - £100

I fully expect pompy to challenge for 5th again this season and actually expect them to take it. Im not a big crouch fan as a player, he does not bring as much to the team as most claim. But he is awkward to deal with and particularly against carvahlo who has often struggled to deal with him in the past. I would not write off a draw in this fixture either but I’ll take crouch.

Of the rest the next best would be arsenal -3 to beat west brom, Arsenal have the advantage of the tough fixture under their belt and west brom wont be able to keep up, scott carson is an average goalkeeper at the moment albeit full of potential, he will be overworked in this one @ 5 (Paddy Power)

[dmachine83]

Balance at end of week one - £0

Strike rate - 0/1 = 0%

Balance at beginning of week 2 (inc top up) - £100

[dmachine83]

After the difficulty of last weeks fixture list this weeks shows a lot more options and i believe this week its a good time to take a little bit of a risk and go against last weeks form.

£100- everton to beat west brom @ 2.5 (PP)

West brom never really looked like taking anything from the emirates on saturday but seemed fairly strong defensivly but with the onus now on them to show a bit more at home it will simply play into everton's hands, to push forward looking for a home victory is vital for a team with asperations of staying in the league but they can be picked off by everton, and yeah everton looked a shadow of last seasons side last week but for me still posess to much quality for west brom. without last weeks result they would i reckon be priced at around 2.1 and i still think that refelects the true price here. As i mentioned last week i put very little stock infirst week performane and results so ill put my whole toal on what i percieve as value.

[dmachine83]

week 2 returns - £250

Balance at end of week 2 - £250

Total profit or loss through week 2 - +£50

Strike rate - 1/2 = 50%

Balance at beginning of week 3 (inc top up) - £350

[dmachine83]

Right, lookin at the games for this week one really stood out for me, that game is hull at home to wigan.

Im going with wigan to beat hull @ 3 (Boylesports)

last week took the away team at nice price to beat the newly promoted side and am going to do it again this week, wigan are a decent team, one i dont expect to be in a relegation fight come april and may, especally if they can keep their talented wide players. And its that area in particular that they can damage hull, hull are off to a very nice start but will need more than that to stay up and reality will start to set in here. For me wigan are stronger all over the park and could even take this by 2.

Bet - £150 on wigan to beat hull @ 3 (Boylesports)

[dmachine83]

opening balance - £200

week 3 returns - £450

Balance at end of week 3 - £650

Total profit or loss through week 3 - +£350

Strike rate - 2/3 = 67%

Balance at beginning of week 4 (inc top up) - £750

[dmachine83]

I was not looking forward to this week of internationals as it’s usually very hard to judge form and really get a feel of what will happen but having looked through the list of fixtures and prices there are ample examples of great value.

First semblance of value I think is in Cyprus, not necessarily to beat italy but definitely to get a draw. At home to the world champions would strike fear into most teams but the cypriots have a superb record at home in recent years and there is absolutely why this underrated national team cant repeat the trick- cyprus to draw with italy @ 5.5

Montenegro playing their first match as an independent nation are an unknown quantity but I reckon they may suprise a few people in this qualifying group starting with Bulgaria, The Bulgarians are decent but not world beaters and I like a tentative shot on Montenegro @3.9

Latvia really disappointed in the qualifiers for the euro’s but they are better than that showing , I fully expect them to get off to a flyer against a fairly limited Moldova team. This is my beat bet of the week and ill go with this one @ 3.5

Scotland really overachieved in the last qualifing campaign and looking at this group I doubt they will geta close to their goal. Macedonia are a very decent team and I fully expect them not to lose. But I think the most value lies in them winning @ 3.3

Other im personally considering this week-
Wales to draw with Azerbaijan @ 4.6
Slovenia to draw with Poland @ 4.2
Armenia to beat turkey @ 7.6
Iceland to draw with Norway @ 4.5
Romania to draw with Lituania @ 5.5
Austria to beat france @ 6.4

BET OF THE WEEK - £100- Latvia to beat Moldova @ 3.5 (Boylesports)

[dmachine83]

I not being funny but every time a last minute goal goes in it is always to my detriment.
anyway all in all it was a good week and my pick came in again, it was a solid choice. some of my other picks done quiet nicely too.

opening balance - £650

week 4 returns - £350

Balance at end of week 4 - £1000

Total profit or loss through week 4 - +£600

Strike rate - 3/4 = 75%

Balance at beginning of week 5 (inc top up) - £1100

[gecko6]

excellent tipping mate

cyprus almost got that draw.. monte likewise...austria win and iceland draw etc... very good spots and good odds eh

[dmachine83]

Absolutely Gecko it was a nice week where a lot of things really stood out for me, unfortunately this week is the polar opposite, im struggling to find one I really like

However there is the one

The big one at anfield has draw written all over it.

Neither team has started the season in their best form, playing their best football and both will most likely be missing key players. Both teams are defensively strong. If Liverpool are missing Gerrard then their midfield creativity misses some creative edge yet gets significantly stronger defensively. There is no doubt united miss ronaldo’s influence.

It could be pointed out that united have had the best of this fixture but stats cant take into account the abnormal amount luck they have had in these fixtures lately so my worry for this bet is maybe they are due to even themselves out but im going with it cause its my best choice

Bet choice- £150 Liverpool to draw with man utd @ 3.2 (Boylesports)

[dmachine83]

well there you go, as a fan im thrilled but i will point to what i said prior to the game.