KanKeano's OLBG v The Bookies 2008-09

[KanKeano]

Week 1

Balance - 100pts

Bets I like this week:

Arsenal v West Brom - Under 2.5 goals [2.20 @ BetDirect]

The bookies have this one down as a cert for goals but the stats tell a different tale.
Arsenal 10 out last 12 home matches were Under 2.5 goals.
West Brom 5 out of last 7 in the Championship were Under 2.5 goals.

West Ham v Wigan - Away win [4.30 @ VC Bet]

Wigan finished well under Steve Bruce last season finishing 14th and just 9pts behind West Ham. Performances away from picked up too with draws at Chelsea and Liverpool and a final day win at Villa.
West Ham are beginning to look like Charlton used to do under Curbishley, a bit non-descript. They start the season again once more under an injury cloud with Craig Bellamy, Kieron Dyer, Jonathan Spector, James Collins, George McCartney, Danny Gabbidon and James Tompkins out as well as a doubt over Anton Ferdinand.
Wigan have had a decent pre-season and they are have 2 wins and a draw to show from their last 3 visits to Upton Park.

Sunderland v Liverpool - Liverpool Clean Sheet [2.25 @ Ladbrokes]

My personal favourite comes at the Stadium of Light tomorrow evening. Liverpool get their campign off in the North east with a visit to Sunderland. Liverpool already have competitive football under their belts with a Champions league tie in Belgium in which they didn't polay particularly well. In a season when they are expected to improve their league form I expect them to strip fitter tomorrow against a side with the 3rd worst scoring record last season.
All of the top 4 kept clean sheets at Sunderland last season and Liverpool had the 2nd best away defence.
With Kenwyne Jones out Sunderlands attacking options are not as great so my bet of the week is this.

Bet of the week:

Sunderland v Liverpool - Liverpool Clean Sheet [2.25 @ Ladbrokes] Stake 60pts

Closing Balance [WK1] - 40pts

[KanKeano]

Week 1 - Conclusion

Balance - 40pts

Out of the 3 I was mulling over 2 came in and I managed to chose one of them so off to a winning start.

Closing Balance [WK1] - 175pts
P/L - 75pts
ROI% - 125.00%

Balance [WK2] - 275pts

[KanKeano]

Week 2

Balance - 275pts

Only have 2 bets to decide between this week after ruling out most of the 1X2 bets, with most sides prices being too short. It's safer to keep the powder dry until the form settles down.

Liverpool v Middlesbrough - Torres AGS [1.91 @ PaddyPower

Scored in 11 of Liverpool's last 15 home matches including the last 7. The last side to shut him out at Anfield was Arsenal and he scored last weekend at the Stadium of Light. The negatives being his trip to Denmark with Spain midweek and Liverpools impending Champions league qualifier midweek. benitez might rest him with that in mind.

Wigan v Chelsea - Under 2.5goals [1.80 @ bet365]

Sunday Chelsea travel to Wigan to play on ground which has been lucky for them since Wigan gained promotion. I can remeber a last minute Crespo winner in the opening game a few seasons ago and a winner from Robben deep into injury time the season after. Only one of those matches was over 2.5 goals and thats the bet I like the look of the most. None of Wigans last 8 home matches finished Over whilst Chelsea have been involved in 3 matches with 3 or more goals in their last 15 away matches.


Bet of the week:

Wigan v Chelsea - Under 2.5 goals [1.80 @ bet365] Stake 75pts

Closing Balance [WK2] - 200pts

[KanKeano]

Week 2 - Conclusion

Balance - 200pts

Probably the best thing that could have happened for the Unders bet was the early goal for Chelsea. It meant they didn't have to chase the game and they were happy in the knowledge that it was unlikely Wigan would breach their defence.

Closing Balance [WK2] - 335pts
P/L - 135pts
ROI% - 100.00%

Balance [WK3] - 435pts

_________________
@ KanKeano_OLBG | Twitter

[KanKeano]

Week 3

Balance - 435pts

Bet of the week:

Arsenal v Newcastle - Home win [1.50 @ Tote] Stake 300pts

Only 1 bet of any note stands out for this week and thats the game at the Emirates. After last weeks defeat at Fulham Arsenal will not lose any further ground on their top 4 rivals and I expect Wenger to put a strong side out. Nasri seems to be settling into life in North London well and Fabregas should line up alongside for his league match of the season.
They have a decent record at the Emirates and against Newcastle.

Newcastle have had a decent start to the season and their recent away form has been good. However, they still lack confidence at the back when sides put them under pressure, as shown by Coventry midweek, and this Arsenal side passes and probes as well as any team in this division.

Closing Balance [WK3] - 135pts
_________________
@ KanKeano_OLBG | Twitter

[KanKeano]

Week 3 - Conclusion

Balance - 135pts

Easy win for Arsenal. Newcastle were never a threat.

Closing Balance [WK3] - 585pts
P/L - 285pts

Balance [WK4] - 685pts
_________________
@ KanKeano_OLBG | Twitter

[KanKeano]

Week 4

Balance - 685pts

As I'm off this week I will slowly add the bets I like the look of as it goes on and make a choice finally on Friday. As with all international breaks there seems to be little value in the European football as all the bookies seem to have a good handle on team news and the relative strengths of the nations. I tend to look further afield at these times and I'm sure there will be one or two from Asian and Africa.

Libya v Ghana - 1X [1.87 @ BlueSq & SportingBet]

This bet caught my eye yesterday after seeing odds of 4/1 on Betfair for the Libyans. As yet there is no such Asian Handicap or Double Chance market but if you dutch the Libyan and draw odds it comes out around the above odds.

The Libyans are very strong at home and only lost twice in the last 20-odd games. They have beaten all the major African Nations in Tripoli in this time, including Cameroon & Egypt, and there only losses came against Uruguay and Nigeria in a friendly.

They are currently level with Ghana at the top of the group and Ghana have failed to beat Libya in 3 previous meetings in Tripoli.

Ghana will be without the services of Lyon's John Mensah & Rennes' Asamoah Gyan through injury but Stephen Appiah is back in the squad after missing the African Nations at the beginning of the year and they are also under new stewardship, after Le Roy left in the summer. For new coach, Milovan Rajevac, this will be his first competitive game.

This game is being played FRIDAY


South Africa v Nigeria - S Africa win [3.00 @ bet365]

The hosts for the WC are involved in the qualifiers only to try and qualify for the ANC 2010 whose qualifiers are doubling up as the WC qualifiers.

Nigeria have already qualified for the next round after 4 wins from their first 4 group matches. They have a few missing for this game too. Yobo, Martins, Kanu & Obi Mikel are all missing through injury but they stll have a decent squad, albeit smaller with just 17 players called up.

S Africa have bee going through a lean patch since they were announced as World Cup hosts but now it's crunch time in the build up to the tournamnt. This is where you would expect to see an improvement in their fortunes if they were to have any chance of making any impact in the World Cup.
_________________
@ KanKeano_OLBG | Twitter

[KanKeano]

Bet of the week:

Libya v Ghana - Double Chance 1X [1.83 @ Paddy Power] Stake 185pts

For the above reasons.

Closing Balance [WK4] - 500pts
_________________
@ KanKeano_OLBG | Twitter

[KanKeano]

Week 4 - Conclusion

Balance - 500pts

Well thats wrapped up for this weekend. Libya won 1-0 in Tripoli thanks to a goal six minutes from time by Ahmed Osman.

Closing Balance [WK4] - 838.55pts
P/L - 438.55pts

Balance [WK5] - 938.55pts

_________________
@ KanKeano_OLBG | Twitter

[gecko6]

excellent stuff

flying along mate

[KanKeano]

Week 5

Balance - 938.55pts

Thanks Gecko. A few more matches this weekend to have a look at.

Fulham v Bolton - Home win [2.25 @ Totesport]

Two sides who flirted with relegation last season meet at Craven Cottage tomorrow with Fulham looking to build on an impressive start at home. Last month they beat Arsenal 2-0 in their opening match at the Cottage and Roy Hodgson has gone about assembling a decent squad, for this season, from his vast knowledge of world football accumulated over his time in his other jobs. Tomorrow Andy Johnson is in line to make his debut after his £11 million move from Everton and he's the sort of striker that will score the goals to keep fulham out of that relegation dogfight.

Bolton have started the season well with 4pts from their opening 3 matches but two of those games were against promoted sides at the Reebok. They also have tried to build a squad capable of avoiding relegation and they spent a considerable amount of their budget on the Swedish striker, Johan Elmander, from Toulouse. He's seen as the replacement to the departed Anelka and he's already been on the scoresheet in their 1st game, yet he's injured for this match as is Matt Taylor. Gary Cahill is suspended for this match and they have their doubts about the fitness of Ricardo Gardner.

Over the last 6 seasons Fulham have won this fixture 5 times and drawn once. With Boltons injury worries and Fulhams confidence take the home side to get win 2 under their belts.

Liverpool v Man Utd - Over 2.5 goals [2.50 @ bet365]

Alex Ferguson calls this the biggest game in the calendar for Man United and it's easy to see why. Basically the sides are the two most successful in the history of our game and they really do hate each other. A proper English match with added twist this season as Keane and Berbatov line up against each other for the 1st time since they left Tottenham.

Despite not playing to the best of their capabilities Liverpool find themselves at the top of the table with a unbeaten record. Wins over Middlesborough and Sunderland were tempered with a draw at Villa but now they can welcome back Gerrard and Torres into the fold as they look to register a win in this fixture for the 1st time under Rafa. In fact they have failed to score in the last 4 here against United and the Manchester siude generally have had the sign over their bitter rivals since Gerard Houllier left.

Man United will still be without Ronaldo and there are doubts over Hargreaves and Carrick. There was better news for Fergie from Argentina as Tevez was sent off for the 2nd time in their World Cup qualifying campaign meaning that he missed Wednesdays match in Peru as well as the upcoming games in October. With Rooney finding his scoring boots in the 4-1 win over Croatia and Berbatov just playing the once for Bulgaria over the last week their strikeforce should be suitably refreshed and reinvigoured for this match.

Their recent meetings at Anfield have not produced many goals with just 3 in the last 4 but with the firepower on offer for the 2 sides this could be different this time. Odds of 2.50 for Overs with bet365 look good enough to have a dabble on the goal fest.


Finally I was going to go for Chelsea at City but the more I look at it the more I can see an upset so I'll be leaving that one alone.

Newcastle v Hull - Away win [6 @ VC Bet]

As another false dawn departs from the Toon the long suffering fans look towards the future with intrepedation with the thoughts that the current upheavel as still got a long way to go until they can all work to a better future once more. Wise and Ashley are not going anywhere and whilst this saga is being played out the team has got to still get the results. Poor Chris Hughton has been left at the helm and will be taking charge of a side ravaged by injury and close to breaking point.

Habib Beye (Achilles), Geremi (knee) and Capaca (hamstring) are doubts while Argentina international Jonas Gutierrez suffered a discolated shoulder midweek. Obafemi Martins (groin), Mark Viduka (Achilles), Damien Duff (knee) and Jose Enrique (hamstring) will all be missing, while Alan Smith was not match-fit for the match at Arsenal and Joey Barton is serving a six-match ban. A threadbare squad is even thinner now.

Hull started their season with 4 pts from their 1st 2 games but came down to earth with a thud last time out with 5-0 defeat at home to Wigan. Most of Phil Brown's players will have been with him these last two weeks and he will have them primed to avoid another performance like that. Hull are hoping to welcome back George Boateng and Anthony Gardner back into the side whilst Marlon King comes back into contention after his loan deal ruled him out of the side against Wigan. Daniel Cousin is suspended whilst Paul McShane could make his debut at the back after signing on a season long loan from Sunderland.

With all the upheavel at newcastle the last thing they will want to see his their side lose to Hull but remember lastg season when Derby took 4pts out of the Toon. At 5/1 Hull look tempting to pull off a similar feat.

Bet of the week:

Liverpool v Man Utd - Over 2.5 goals [2.50 @ Paddy Power] Stake 250pts

After much deliberation I've decided to go for the goal fest at Anfield tomorrow dinnertime. With the likes of Berbatov, Rooney, Tevez, Torres, Keane & Kuyt available this match should be cracker and will be the perfect prelude to the rest of the action this week in the Premiership.

Closing Balance [WK5] - 688.55pts
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@ KanKeano_OLBG | Twitter

[Ipoh Shark]

hi kk,
i was considering this bet (but not on this "v bookies" forum due to my personal ban on Big 4 bets) and the only big "no" to this bet is the tactics of Rafa.

With the CL coming in a few days, i can see Rafa pulling off Torres and Gerrard by the 60-70 mins to preserve them for the CL. This will happen whether Liverpool are in the lead or not. If Liverpool get the 1st goal, then it is likely that they will retreat into their half and play with only 1 player in the MU half.

4 out of the last 5 h2h here were settled by the odd goal while the 5th game was a 0-0 draw.

i'm not as gung ho as u, so i will bet on the >2 goals @ 1.975 in real money.

good luck to us both.