Tour De France 2012 Betting & Thoughts

[Micko70]

Does anybody have any early thoughts on this years tour.

With 3 individual time trials it's not surprising that many bookies have Bradley Wiggins at the head of the betting.

Although he will take plenty of time out of his main rivals in the time trials, will he be able to stay ahead in those long mountain stages.

The stages for this years race are as follows -

P 30 June Liège – Liège 6.1 km (4 mi) Individual time trial
1 1 July Liège – Seraing 198 km (123 mi) Flat stage
2 2 July Visé – Tournai 207 km (129 mi) Flat stage
3 3 July Orchies – Boulogne-sur-Mer 197 km (122 mi) Medium-mountain stage
4 4 July Abbeville – Rouen 214 km (133 mi) Flat stage
5 5 July Rouen – Saint-Quentin 197 km (122 mi) Flat stage
6 6 July Épernay – Metz 210 km (130 mi) Flat stage
7 7 July Tomblaine – La Planche des Belles Filles 199 km (124 mi) Medium-mountain stage
8 8 July Belfort – Porrentruy 154 km (96 mi) Medium-mountain stage
9 9 July Arc-et-Senans – Besançon 41.5 km (26 mi) Individual time trial
10 July Rest day
10 11 July Mâcon – Bellegarde-sur-Valserine 194 km (121 mi) Mountain stage
11 12 July Albertville – Fontcouverte-la-Toussuire/Les Sybelles 140 km (87 mi) Mountain stage
12 13 July Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne – Annonay/Davézieux 220 km (137 mi) Medium-mountain stage
13 14 July Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux – Cap d'Agde 215 km (134 mi) Flat stage
14 15 July Limoux – Foix 192 km (119 mi) Mountain stage
15 16 July Samatan – Pau 160 km (99 mi) Flat stage
17 July Rest day
16 18 July Pau – Bagnères-de-Luchon 197 km (122 mi) Mountain stage
17 19 July Bagnères-de-Luchon – Peyragudes 144 km (89 mi) Mountain stage
18 20 July Blagnac – Brive-la-Gaillarde 215 km (134 mi) Flat stage
19 21 July Bonneval – Chartres 53.5 km (33 mi) Individual time trial
20 22 July Rambouillet – Paris (Champs-Élysées) 130 km (81 mi) Flat stage

For the Latest betting, click HERE


Please put your bets and thoughts on here.

Can Cadel Evans repeat last years feat @ 5/2
Will 1 of the Schleck brothers finally win @ 6/1 & 80/1
Can Bradley Wiggins win enough time in the time trials to win @ 11/4
Can Thomas Voeckler go 1 better than his 4th place last year and pay ew backers @ 200/1
Can Sammy Sanchez do better than last years King Of The Mountains and be the overall king @ 33/1
Can Pierre Roland go from best young rider to best overall @ 50/1

[Liverpool1985]

See I am a bit split about the pre-race thoughts on this years Tour De France. Yes the climbs aren't as strenuous as last year it can be said, but there are still 18 climbs in this years Tour De France graded as either Grade 1 or HCs (High Climbs) and plenty of opportunities for severe time to be lost. I think this years set up is clever. Remember though that 1 of those Time Trials is only 4 miles in length although I would say 4-5 minutes could possibly be lost in total for Andy Schleck especially.

But as previously said I think the TTs involvement is clever. Last year, other than Mark Cavendish winning the Green Jersey, my favourite part of the whole Tour De France 2011 was Andy Schlecks solo stage victory. The reason? He done what most critics had implied he was incapable of doing. He attacked very early in the Stage and held on out there for the greatest Stage victory of his career. A big critisism of Andy Schleck has been how cautious he can be etc. But the message is clear with this set up of stages and the extra Time Trials. And that message is if you want it, you have to attack to get it.

Lets be honest, is there anyone in the likely field for the Tour De France who can actually attack and ride away from Schlek in the bigger Mountain Stages, which is where he feels most at home? Probably not. Are there riders who can go with Andy Schleck on the bigger stages he if attacks? Yes. But I don't see Bradley Wiggins as one of them. And this is the problem for Bradley Wiggins. Everyone knows how strong he is in the Time Trials and what a big danger is poses. So lets theoretically say Schleck, Sanchez, Evans and Gessink end up dropping Bradley Wiggins on one of the big mountain stages. What happens? They will all work together to put as much time in to Wiggins as they possibly can.

Last year Bradley Wiggins was unlucky with his injury. He was looking good and who knows I suppose, although I don't think he would have beaten Evans anyway. Not after some of the Climbing performances Evans has put in. I have just never seen Bradley Wiggins impress me in the mountains stage at the Tour De France. And he would have to have improved beyond belief to match the climbing abilities of some of the other riders in the really testing conditions. But the Tour has been set up in favour of a rider like Wiggins I will say but there is questions surrounding the Sky set up, will they drop supporting Cavendish completely? Who will chase down the daily break aways? Which I am sure BMC and other teams will be making sure includes some of their riders.

Will be interested on Manafanas thoughts. But these are just some of my early opinions on this years race. No outright bet decisions yet of course.

[Micko70]

I am stuck on Bradley Wiggins, yes i agree that he will probably get dropped on 1 of the bigger climbs but with 2 time trials before the major climbs he could have a big advantage over some of his rivals.

The first Climb bigger than Category 3 comes in stage 7 with the Category 1 La Planche des Belles Filles

Stage 8 has 4 Category 2 climbs and a category 1 climb at the finish, Col de la Croix.

If they don't drop Wiggins in either of the Cat 1 climbs he could have a decent lead after the 2nd time trial on stage 9.

He still has to perform in the time trials of course

The first uncategorised climb (H) doesn't arrive until stage 10 when they climb the Col du Grand Colombier

[Liverpool1985]

Yea he could build up a lead but I am just not sure on how strong he will be in the Mountains. But will dwelve further closer to the time.

One thing I am expecting, is Sylvain Chavanel to be very attacking if he takes part this year. His Tour De France in 2011 was ruined by an injury sustained in a crash and he has become a tad obsessed with taking part in the 1 day classics recently. But either way I would expect him to take part in this years Tour De France and as always he will be given the freedom to ride as he likes to. One of the most attacking riders around and will certainly go on a hunt for a Stage Victory this year after last years big disapointment for him. Will be one to watch for the Stage Win, and not the Overall classification.

[NafVertone]

The way the TDF is set up this year it looks totally against Andy Schleck and i would be looking to Lay him and i would even go as far as laying him to finish in the Top 3 .Looking at the course this year,it is a far easier course than last year and probably one of the easiest tours in a long time as far as mountain top finishes are concerned.With nearly 100Km of individual time trialing in this years tour it is no surprise to see Bradley Wiggins at the head of the market and i think it will all come down to how much there is between himself and Cadel Evans in the mountains to decide the winner this year.I cannot see Wiggins having any significant problems until at least Stage 17 as the mountain stages before that do not look like leg breakers as such.

Have not had a bet yet as i will wait until closer to the race but at the moment i am thinking.

Lay Andy Schleck for Top 3 @ 2.42
Back Bradley Wiggins to win @ 3.9
Back Sammy Sanchez Top 3 @ 4.8
Back Jurgen Van Den Broeck Top 6 @ 2.62
Back Tony Martin Top 6 @ 5.1

Will also be having a few quid e/w on Tony Martin to win the race outright this year as i can see him putting a lot of time in to practically all the GC contenders in the TT's.He will probably be a Team Leader for the first time in his career and has proved in the past that he can hold on for a good bit in the high mountains and with him having a real good chance of a podium finish this year,it might give him that extra incentive to hold in there as long as he can to limit time loss.

[Liverpool1985]

Hi NafVertone. Long time no hear mate. Hope all is well.

Yea I agree with your thoughts on Tony Martin. He is definitely the best time trialist of the team leaders and often climbs better than Wiggins in the Tour De France. Makes you wonder why the odds are like they are. Are they really expecting Wiggins to beat the World Time Trialist Champion in the TTs? Another thing to note is how much will cyclists be affected by the Olympics following the Tour De France. A lot will be involved. Surely Wiggins has to drop any interest in the Olympics if he is to really Lay down the marker for Tour De France glory.

Schleck is a strange one. Knowing the route for this years Tour I was amazed that he didn't enter the Giro D'Italia to be honest. And once again he looks to have a good team behind him. Question is, why did he not enter the Giro. The race this year suited him perfectly but he chose to ride the Tour De France again. It's a decision that is racking with my brain. He looked very disappointed coming runner up in 2011 so coming back for another podium finish makes little sense. I just think if Andy has entered to try and win, he has to be as agressive as ever, more than we have ever seen from him before. And that aggression could play in to the hands of other favourite other than Bradley Wiggins.

[Micko70]

It will be interesting to see what team Radioshack will bring to the Tour, will they split it from last years 2 teams, Radioshack & Leopard Trek or will they go for mainly the riders who were part of Leopard Trek.

Last years Leopard trek team was -
Andy Schleck
Fabian Cancellara
Jakob Fuglsang
Linus Gerdemann
Maxime Monfort
Stuart O'Grady
Joost Posthuma
Frank Schleck
Jens Voigt

Last years Radioshack team was -
Janez Brajkovic
Christopher Horner
Markel Irizar
Andréas Kloden
Levi Leipheimer
Dmitriy Muravyev
Sergio Miguel Moreira Paulinho
Yaroslav Popyvich
Haimar Zubeldia

This year there are Andy Schleck, Frank Schleck, Fabian Cancellara, Jens Voigt, Linus Gerdemann, Maxime Monfort, Joost Posthuma, Jakob Fuglsang & Markel Irizar from last years Leopard Trek team & Andréas Kloden, Christopher Horner, Yaroslav Popyvich & Haimar Zubeldia from last years Radioshack team.

There are going to be a few upset riders who won't make the squad.

[NafVertone]

All is good mate.The thing is Wiggins has already beaten Tony Martin on two occasions this year in TT's but Tony Martin was just coming back from injury.I have had my bet on Tony Martin for the TDF already because i think if he has a strong Dauphanie you could see his price plummet for the TDF.Does anyone know if any firms will be pricing up the Dauphanie as i fancy having a few quid on Tony Martin for it.

[Liverpool1985]

[Micko70]

Cannot see any betting anywhere, but here are the stages if you didn't already know -


Prologue - Grenoble - 5,7 km - Time Trial 3rd June

Stage 1 - Seyssins - Saint-Vallier - 187 km 4th June

Stage 2 - Lamastre - Saint-Félicien - 160 km 5th June

Stage 3 - Givors - La Clayette - 167 km 6th June

Stage 4 - Villié-Morgon - Bourg-en-Bresse - 53 km - Time Trial 7th June

Stage 5 - Saint-Trivier-sur-Moignans - Rumilly - 186,5 km 8th June

Stage 6 - Saint-Alban-Leysse - Morzine - 166,5 km 9th June

Stage 7 - Morzine - Châtel - 126 km 10th June

[NafVertone]

Tony Martin has made a full recovery as he showed by winning the Tour of Belgium last week.With him coming back in to Top form right now he could be very capable of a big showing in the Dauphanie with a lot of riders only using the race to improve their fitness.

Cheers Micko.Have already seen the route for the Dauphanie and the Morzine stage finish looks like the deciding factor this year.

[KanKeano]

Wiggo for me in this years TDF. Since last May he's won the Criterium, Finished 3rd in the Vuelta, finished 2nd in the World TT, been part of the GB squad that won the Rainbow Jersey for Cav. Won Paris-Nice & the Tour of Romandie.

The course and the amount of TT Km's should suit in TDF so he's never really had a better chance. Especially as the best grand tour cyclist in the world is currently suspended. I'd put a line through the Schlecks at the moment. Neither have shown much form and this years edition suits neither.

It will be interesting to see how Cadel is shaping up next week for the defence of his crown. Haven't seen much of him yet this season except for in the Tour of Romandie where he didn't look at the top of his game but next month will be his big target again this year. He should strip a lot fitter for the Dauphine.

I like the chances of Sammy Sanchez too. He's a decent all rounder along the lines of Evans.
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