Cycling thread - Giro (May races)

manafana · Posted: Fri May 04, 2012 4:21 pm Post subject: Cycling thread - Giro (May races)

Its the giro, their will be 3 time trial ones short one in denmark, then testing team one, before the final day tt in milan.

Outright win.
.1ptR.Hesjedal 50/1 VC Bet
.1pt Uran 66/1 Totesport
.2pt R.Kreuziger 9/1 Bodog

Hesjedal has built upto this all season and has been in solid touch, this is a guy who has top 10 in the tour and came good in week 3 last in the tour despite been out of shape being able peak late on while turning over without losing time will be key and he ticks alot boxes with his solid tt and likelyhood his team does the business in the team one.
Uran is another with the battle he had for white last year for sky once bradly went. He climbs well has suport of an excellent team and like hesjedal should be looked after so goes into week3 right up their in the gc.
Kreuziger is the class rider of these, he rode great giro last year and looks even stronger this year better prepared, astana have an excellent setup that is working so well this year to monument wins shows that. Vino is on his side and has taken shine to young lads in the team giving advice from his time in gt's kreuziger ticks boxes as the one who will be gunning for this and is good bet to ensure the italian tri colour isnt raised in 3weeks.

top 3 finish:
2pts Kreuziger 3.4 Betfair

top 10 finish :
3pts hesjedal 11/10 888Sport

King of Mountains:
.25pts J.Gadret 28/1

Gadret will likely be racing from behind he will make move in week 3 when most pts r up for grabs

top team:
1pt Astana 3/1
.5pts Lampre 6/1

Both astana and lampre have good teams with no focus on sprints and will have 2or 3 each of the days to stay up and do well in these classments.

specials
2pts Any other nation to win v italy 5/4 VC Bet

team outright matchbets;
5pt Lotto -belisol to beat rabobank 6/5 Bet365
Lotto look have a few guys gunning for doing well in the lumpy days, the rabo bus is missing a few of their climbers and seem have gone stage hunting, lotto 6/5 when they probably should be favourites in this one.

2pts Astana to beat Movistar 7/10 Bet365
2pts Ag2r to beat Androni 2.14 Pinnacle
1pt Euskatel to beat Vacansoleil 2.23 Pinnacle
1pt Net App to beat quickstep 2.18

Outright matchbets:

5pts Carrara to beat Stetina 1.82 Pinnacle

Carrara is a local boy he can climb a bit and is up against stetina who is well done his teams pecking order, Bet365 took this down but Pinnacle left it get on.

6pts Uran to beat nieve 4/6 VC Bet

Uran is skys man his focus has been on this no doubt since a strong tour in bradleys absence he is strong fancy for me and he has a winnable match up v nieve. Nieve last year went for one big day in the hills, but he will loss mountains of time by end of week one with weak tt rides and im not sure gc will be his target at all.

3pts Carrara to beat Mathias Frank 8/13 VC Bet

Carrara as mentioned above should lead his team, frank has some results in races but is likely no2 to pinotti the local boy he has tended to crack in gt's before and doesnt last the 3weeks.

1pt Basso to beat Scarponi 2.82 Pinnacle
3pts J.Rodriguez to beat Rujano 2.56 Pinnacle
2pts Pinotti to beat cataldo 2.27 Pinnacle
2pts inxtausti to beat pardilla 2.29 Pinnacle
1.5pt Niemiec to beat seeldrayer 1.8 Pinnacle
1.5pts J.Rodriguez to beat cunego 4/6 paddys
1.5pts Hesjedal to beat Gadret 6/4 VC Bet
4pts Pinotti to beat vandevelde 4/7 VC Bet, paddys

Pinotti is dark horse for me in this probably in best shape hes been for while, less steep than last year suits him and been totally fit coming in will help, great tt rider and vandevelde hasnt form coming in and works for hesjedal in the moutains.

2pts Symzd to beat cataldo 8/11 VC Bet
2pts krueizger to beat frank schleck 8/13 paddys
3pts Uran to beat Henao 8/11 paddys, Ladbrokes
1pt Dupont to beat nieve 2.08 Pinnacle
3pts Carrara to beat tirlango 11/10 paddsy
2pts Intxausti to beat Ulissi 4/6 paddys

Micko70 · Posted: Fri May 04, 2012 4:32 pm Post subject:

Good luck Manafana

I like the look of Domenico Pozzovivo as there are some monster climbs and he is up there with the best at the moment, his time trialing isn't the best though.

He is available @ 18/1

I might also have a small bet on him winning the King Of The Mountains Jersey at 10/1

yoyo255 · Group 3 Class Joined: 28 Mar 2012 Posts: 76

Szmyd it's really interessant too for the overall. Win

My tips for the first stage :

Farrar to beat Hushovd 1pts 2,51 Pinnacle
Pinotti to beat Sergent 1pts 2,18 Pinnacle
Bennati to beat Larsson 1pts 1,9 Bet365
Hesjedal to beat Scarponi 1pts 2,1 Pinnacle

ROI : +30.26%
Balance: + 3,102 pts on 11 tips since 27 April 2012

manafana · Posted: Fri May 04, 2012 4:49 pm Post subject:

manafana · Posted: Fri May 04, 2012 4:50 pm Post subject:

yoyo fancy anything in overall matchbets?

yoyo255 · Group 3 Class Joined: 28 Mar 2012 Posts: 76

I think that the frenchies Gadret and Dupont are underestimated if we think about the perfomances in the last year for Gadret and the current shape of Dupont.
So this match are interessant :
Gadret b Kreuziger 2.63
Beacause Kreuziger is a good cyclist but not a GREAT cyclist as you have to be to win or being on the podium.

However I don't bet on overall 'cause in three week all can happen.
And you have to wait 3 weeks too ! Very Happy

Liverpool1985 · Posted: Fri May 04, 2012 11:56 pm Post subject:

I am kind of agreeing with you here lads. I have taken 2 bets on this years Giro D'Italia. First up is the Outright winner and I am taking Roman Kreuziger @ 8.8 (Betfair). He performed well in 2011 here when finishing 6th overall and all things seem to be coming together for Roman Kreuziger coming in to this race. And he is the standout rider to challenge the racer I think should be the favourite, in Ivan Basso. Kreuziger won the best Young Rider in 2011 and can get even closer this year after some impressive performances. No more than his 3rd place overall at the Tirreno-Adriatico. A fair bit of hype surrounding him though and I am jumping on board for him to take the Giro D'Italia 2012.

My other bet is for Ivan Basso to finish higher than Michele Scarponi @ 2.60 (Bet365). This is my NAP bet. Ivan Basso should be the favourite in my view and dropping him at any point during the race is going to be tough for anyone. Ivan Basso rode a surperb Tour De France in 2011 in my opinion, but I feel he has always been much better suited to the Giro D'Italia. While he had a poor Tour de Romandie it was clearly with this race in mind. These will be my 2 bets this year.

I also think Frank Schleck is overpriced @ 1.90 to finish above Domenico Pozzovivo. You can never write off Frank Schleck and he could be a contender in this years Tour. But I will stick with the 2 bets I already have on.

manafana · Posted: Sat May 05, 2012 10:36 am Post subject:

Stage 1 betting:

8.7km time trial, few twists and turns meaning power out of corners will be important, very flat but maybe long enough to rule out the sprinters.

Stage 1 outright
.1pt bennati 16/1 hills
.2pts Rasmussen 9/2 VC Bet

2pts Rasmussen to beat Thomas 1.88 Pinnacle
Thomas has his romandie win in book but weather played its part that day and it was 4km suting him prefectly coming off his track programme this is twice the distance and more of a test

1.5pts Kwiatkowski to beat Boara 2.43 Pinnacle
1.5pt Cavendish to beat Nizzollo 2.06 Pinnacle
3pt Bennanti to beat GE Larsson 3/4 Bet365
Bennanti is a dark horse, he excels in short tt's as close to matched fab early in season when 2nd in simliar type event, ge larsson has tt'ed well but i dont think this is long enough for him

1pt De Gendt to beat Clement2.29 Pinnacle
1pt Farrar to beat Hushovd 7/5 Bet365
1.5pt Hesjedal to beat Scarponi 2.06 Pinnacle

1.5pts Kreuziger to beat Barta 1.78 Pinnacle
1pt Pozzovivo to beat Gadret 5/6 paddys

yoyo255 · Group 3 Class Joined: 28 Mar 2012 Posts: 76

I'm ok with all your tips except Kwiatkowski to beat Boara
I realy think it will be the reverse. Baoro did an excellent prologue to the Tour de Romandie, where he lost only nine seconds on the winner Geraint Thomas, when he was riding in the rain. He had done the same time under the same conditions as Alex Rasmussen one of three favorites to win the first stage of the Giro d'Italia which is run today. In addition, we may add, that Boaro is on his national tour, we should see him very motivated to be able to wear the pink jersey,

manafana · Posted: Sat May 05, 2012 4:09 pm Post subject:

yoyo always good to get counter arguements welcome been challenged on picks, impressive ride by pinotti their for 3rd.

yoyo255 · Group 3 Class Joined: 28 Mar 2012 Posts: 76

You're welcome Manafana. Smile

At the moment : 2 bet finishes and 2 wins ! Very Happy

Farrar and Pinotti. Win

yoyo255 · Group 3 Class Joined: 28 Mar 2012 Posts: 76

And I was right for Boaro Cheeky

Ok, the odds were on my side. Very Happy