ODDS ON

toby blanker · Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 10:59 am Post subject: ODDS ON

This is something i did last year but stuck to premiership and it showed a decent profit this season ill track the top spanish league,german,italian,french and scottish league to see if laying odds on shots can be profitable.
Ill use olbg tip selection to find any odds on shots in these leagues and then Lay them on Betfair for a 10pt liabilty.here goes
Scotland
23/07/11
rangers v hearts 4/11@Coral
Lay 22.5pts@1.44-liabilty-10pts
res-1.1

Online Trader · Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 11:30 am Post subject:

Good luck Toby

I will continue with my Lay Away Blog for the English leagues this season and hope that it is as profitable as last season.

I assume that you are laying both home and away, if so I have historical data to show that Italy Serie A, Spanish Primera Division and Scottish Premiership is not profitable but you should be OK with the Bundesliga and French Ligue 1 Wink

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toby blanker · Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 11:54 am Post subject:

cheers ot,
how long do your stats go back mate and were they just overrall stats or home and away stats aswell,i was hoping to make the blog quiet detailed and adding home and away is something i will do and at the end of the season it should be easier to filter through and see whats more profitable,but if u already have the stats i could save myself some time by elimating the non profitable leagues from the start,i did keep a eye on the foreign leagues and it did seem like when the top 6 sides played a mid table team they were knowhere near as short as the pl.

Online Trader · Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 12:14 pm Post subject:

I went back 3 season Toby and split out home and away, you find that a league may be profitable for 1 season and then tuns into a loser over the next 2 seasons so it certainly is not exact science.

I have also found that you have to remove all emotion and be ruthless laying whenever there is a qualifier as if you miss one or two and they turn out to be winners (losers) it can seriously affect your P&L, set the criteria and stick to it is my policy.

Who would have thought that opposing Man Utd and Chelsea when they are odds on away from home would be profitable over the course of a season Yes

but as we know the gambling gods could set that record straight this season

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Online Trader · Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 1:51 pm Post subject:

Great start mate Win

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toby blanker · Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 2:33 pm Post subject:

Good start and 21pts banked looks like theres two possibly one game in the spl tomorrow.
Youve raised some good points ot just because one league made a profit last year doesnt mean it will the following.
Laying man utd away last year might have been profitable but might not this year thats why im not going to hand pick the lays as you pointed out you could be tempted to leave out the real short ones.
Im gonna guess that the premiership will be the most profitable for a number of reasons one of them being that its what most people bet on this country making the bookies setting the odds shorter than they should be i wish i could have layed rangers @4/11 but after comission it worked out just over 1/2.

Blog p/l +21pts
Scotland +21pts
Home +21pts/Away +0pts

toby blanker · Posted: Sat Jul 23, 2011 3:18 pm Post subject:

24/7/11
Hibs v celtic
4/9@VC
Lay celtic 23.5pts @1.43 liabilty 10pts
res-0.2
Dundee utd v kilmarnock
10/11 @365
Lay dundee utd 10.5pts@1.95 liabilty 10pts.
res-1.1

Online Trader · Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 7:39 am Post subject:

Good luck today Toby I think at least 1 of these shorties will get turned over Yes

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toby blanker · Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 11:37 am Post subject:

On last years tables u would expect both teams to win but footballs a funny old game,one early goal could change the outlook of the game.If celtic lose the blog will be in profit for a couple more matches.Celtic and rangers carnt both slip up on opening fixture can they.?

toby blanker · Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2011 5:26 pm Post subject:

Broke even today celtic justify the odds winning 2.0 and kilmarnock hang on for the draw 1.1.
So far the home lays in the spl are showing profit and the away lays are showing a loss after 3 games.
blog p/l +21pts. (2/3)longest losing run>1 game.
Scotland +21pts
Home +31pts (2/2) /Away -10pts (0/1)
longest losing run> 1 game

toby blanker · Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:05 am Post subject:

One so far for weekend
30/7/11
st johnstone v rangers
3/5 @ Canbet
16pts Lay of rangers @1.64 liabilty >10pts
res-0.2

Online Trader · Posted: Sat Jul 30, 2011 6:14 am Post subject:

Good luck toby, fingers crossed that Rangers slip up again Yes

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