Various stats and stuff of interest

[Micko70]

You have probably all see them, those people who go into the bookies and back everything the master rides, no matter who trains it, where it is running, every bookies has a McCoy Follower.

Now if they knew these useful bits of information then they could save themselves a fortune in the long run.

Firstly the lower the grade the better his results are, going through from class 1 to class 5 his win percentage steadily increases, but you are sitting there thinking that we must be in profit if we back in class 5 then right?, well actually the answer to that is no, as the hardened punter will know, when Ap is riding in lower class races he rides fancied horses so although he might have a good percentage record they are usually fav or 2nd fav.

There are however races to avoid when thinking of backing AP, although he might win the odd big un at 12/1 his record in Class 1 Handicaps is far worse than when backing in non handicap class 1's

Since 2005 if you backed AP in non handicap class 1 hurdles you would have backed a winner 32 times from 180 runs, at a strike rate of 17.8%, since the same period in non handicap class 1 chases you would have backed 27 winners from 117 rides and strike rate of 23.1%

Now looking at Handicap races for the same period we find that in Class 1 Handicap Chases he has had 18 winners from 160 rides, a strike rate of only 11.2%, and in Class 1 Handicap Hurdles he has rode 14 winners from 117 rides with a strike rate of 12%

His record is best in Class 5 in all 4 types of racing, Handicap & Non Handicap, both Hurdles & Chases but like i say most of them are short priced, but the one thing that stands out by a mile from the other 19 (5 x 4 types of race, minus this) is his record in Class 5 Non Handicap Chases, since 2005 he has ridden in only 10 of these races and won 6 of them, with a staggering strike rate of 60%, i am not sure how many class 5 non handicap chases there are during a season but you have to look out for AP riding in them.

If anybody wants all of his strike rates and winners/rides from all 4 types of races then just ask, sorry but i don't have the information for Bumpers

[Micko70]

Some interesting stats for you to look through before EVERY Grade 1 chase this season

Since February 2000 there have been 142 Grade 1 chases run in Great Britain.

The attributes, characteristics and credentials of the winners of those races represent a road-map of sorts for picking the wheat from the chaff... the most likely 'live' contenders from the most likely 'also-rans'... in future Grade 1 events....


The 7- and 8-year-old Grade 1 runners are the most successful group over the last decade. Horses of that age are responsible for just over 50% of the 142 winners of Grade 1 chases in Britain since 2000. The average age of Grade 1 winner over the last decade is 7.4years old. Don't get me wrong, 6-year-olds win these events too (22 of them). So too do 9-year-olds (21 of them). But the sweet spot in the statistical record is clearly the 7- to 8-year-old band. For the record, only a single 4-year-old has won a Grade 1 chase over the last decade - Long Run in last year's King George (proof if further were needed of his quality and potential). And just 5 horses aged 11 or older have prevailed - and Moscow Flyer was responsible for two of those wins.

Oppose the more experienced chasers in Grade 1 races. The average Grade 1 chase winner over the last decade had raced just 9.3 times over fences. Kauto Star, Best Mate and Long Run demonstrated their quality early on - winning a Grade 1 with 3 or fewer chases under their belts. At the other end of the scale Edredon Bleu was winning a Grade 1 with 30 chases behind him. The percentage play is to side with horses in Grade 1 races with 15 or fewer chases in their legs. Of our 142 Grade 1 winners over the last decade 111 had raced no more than 15 times over fences.

It pays to stick with the French and the Irish-breds - again that might sound like an obvious statement to some of you. We hear a lot about the dominance of Irish- and French-bred horses over the jumps but the stats reveal exactly how dominant those two breeds are at the highest level of the chasing game. Horses bred in either Ireland or France are responsible for a whopping 126 (89%) of the 142 winners of Grade 1 British chases since the beginning of 2000.
British-bred horses have won just 12 Grade 1 chases in that time - 9 of them at trip shorter than 3 miles. It clearly doesn't pay to follow the 'home' horses at the top level.

Don't be tempted to bet the fairer sex - because the historical record is against you. 30 mares have tried their hand in a Grade 1 chase run in Britain since the beginning of 2000 producing not a single winner. Every Grade 1 chase winner over the period was a male horse.

Back Grade 1 runners off a decent break - a Grade 1 race is a competitive affair that demands a lot from a horse and takes a lot out of it. As such horses need to go into Grade 1 races in peak condition - if they are to win them. The stats suggest that horses going into Grade 1 races having had a recent race lack the necessary shine to produce of their best. Over the last decade more than 200 horses have gone into a Grade 1 chase less than 3 weeks after a previous run - just 12 managed to win. 130 of our 142 Grade 1 winners had been rested for 3 weeks or longer before their Grade 1 triumph. The percentage play is to side with rested horses.

Be wary of horses wearing blinkers - these are often a sign of a horse with a slightly suspect temperament. The stats suggest such horses cannot be trusted at the top level of the chasing game. 50 horses have gone to post in a Grade 1 chase wearing blinkers over the last decade. Just 2 have won. On the stats they are best voided.

Big margin Grade 1 wins denote horses of serious quality. It sounds like a painfully obvious thing to say - and it is. But sometimes we know what to think without really understanding why we think it. Of the 142 Grade 1 chase winners over the last decade or so just 35 won by 10 lengths or more. Their names read like a who's who of top chasers - Kauto Star, Master Minded, Voy Por Ustedes, Moscow Flyer, Long Run, Best Mate, Flagship Uberalles, First Gold and Denman. When a horse wins a Grade 1 chase by 10 lengths or more you know you are looking at a superstar. One name to take off this exalted list for this season is Riverside Theatre. He hasn't been seen since winning a Grade 1 at Ascot by 10 lengths in February. And he won't be seen until later in the season. He is well worth latching onto when he does - he's a true Grade 1 performer who might just be flying a little lower on the radar than he should be.

[Micko70]

Lingfield: Thursday 27th Oct

General stats: Al Andaleeb (1.40) and Janood (3.10) represent Saeed Bin Suroor who boasts incredible stats of 52% at this venue.

2.40: Richard Hannon was not represented twelve months ago having won the two previous renewals. Richard has declared three runners this time around, the trainer obviously intent on saddling another winner.

3.10: Janood (mentioned in the general stats) represents Saeed Bin Suroor who comes into this race on a hat trick.

4.40: All five winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more which effectively rules the bottom five horses out of the equation.

Stratford: Thursday 27th Oct

General stats: Seven pound claimer Kielan Woods is worth keeping an eye on at Stratford, having ridden four winners via just six opportunities to date, sadly he has no ride today but worth remembering

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 4.50: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer, whilst Nigel Twiston-Davies has saddled three of the last eight winners. Nigel’s only runner is Tour Des Champs.

[jmstocka]

Good posts Micko

Keep them coming

[Micko70]

Saturday 29th October

Sphinx (4.40 Ayr) has had 6 runs at the track, he has won twice, finished 2nd twice and finished 3rd once

Ed Dunlop has a 24% strike rate @ Wolverhampton, he has Bursting Bubbles down to run in the 8.20

Sunday 30th Ocxtober

Tim Walford has had 3 winners from 13 runners @ Carlisle recently and runs just the 1 horse, French Seventyfive in the 3.50

[Micko70]

Young 7lb claimer is a jockey to firmly keep your eye on, he is from the Charlie Longsdon stable.

He has had a few rides for Longsdon, winning 7 of those for a good strike rate. He has also had 3 wins from rides for Philip Middleton for a good strike rate, giving an overall LSP of over £30.00 for the season so far

He has 1 ride on Saturday, riding Marju King for Philip Middleton in the 1st race @ Ascot