gecko6's "Lay the draw at HT" blog

[brewster39]

Unlucky this weekend mate, don't know how both Fulham and Bolton games ended in draws
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brewsty39

[gecko6]

thanks mate... not a problem as was due a bad run... increased stakes mean it took a big hit but those increased stakes will help when I get a few more wins !

100pts at 2.5 meant 150pt loss on both those games

bank was > 1056.14pts
bank now > 756.14pts
no profit !
strike rate 9/16 (was 9/12 which was to high, was expecting just aboe 50% not 75%!)

* back to roughly what was expected now...stakes will be increased to 200pts each Lay unless odds are prohibitive liability-wise... this will mean that should get a slight edge in long-term but taking some hits along the way (like this weekend !)

[Betfairalfie]

Not wishing to put a damper on this but ...

[gecko6]

not a damper at all mate - comments are always welcome

plan originally was >

any game which was a draw at HT, Lay the draw

theory being that these games often ended not as draws (hopefully over 60%)

thus, so long as the amount of games that changed from a draw was high enough, it would cover the liability if they stayed as draws...

prem games only currently...

these HT draws are usually around the 2.5 mark to Lay... thus the liability is about 50% more than potential win

thus, need a decent strike rate of 60% to win in long-term

eg 10 games > Lay 100pts at 2.5 each game

60% correct = 6 games with 100pt win and 4 games 150pt loss = 0 overall

70% correct = 7 games with 100pt win and 3 games with 150pt loss = 250pt win overall

this blog had a decent start > 9/12 meant 75% success and thus a nice profit... since then it has had 4 losses which has brought the overall figure into a loss (9/16 which is 56%)

and.... I increased the stake as the margin was too small...ie 1000pt bank...doing 50pt bets and achieving say 63/100 correct would probably only have made a very small win at the end...(or nothing after commission!)

thinking about it - what I should do is run the same bets twice, one with the original 50pt lays..and one with increased stakes...

* problem I have got is the games with the top 4 - when they are at home, if it's a draw at HT, the Lay price is about 3.3... thus I stake lower amount to off-set the liability a bit...I should really not bet these games and stick a limit in but that goes against the theory of HT draws not ending as draws

does this make sense as a bit rambling?!

[thatsa donkey]

Gecko,

Interesting Idea, just a quick question, why does the bet have to be struck at half-time? I guess what I am asking is that if most of the winning Lays are due to late goals how late are they? Surely the Lay price would be significantly lower at around 70 mins. At what stage in a premiership game does the Lay price go odds on? These are questions that this blog should hopefully answer.

Great stuff and brilliant blog.

Donkey.

[gecko6]

thanks TAD

the original idea was something I noticed in deco's blog last season... I picked up that a lot of the HT draws went on to be not draws at FT...

thus this blog...

you are dead right...most of the goals so far have been late or very late !.. the Lay price drops a bit in second half but really starts motoring down after 75mins or so... the liability here is way less but equally there is much less time for the draw to change

the market also factors in injury time so often the draw price is highish for quite a long way into the second half

if I tried to track it or waited for 70mins, I can see that I will miss the odd goal that will be crucial... "suspended" just as laying !

I think I need to check stats re historic games...eg high teams home to lower teams, when prices change significantly and so on... that will give this theory something to work on.. currently I think it is interesting to see how many games do change...or what streaks they go in (ie 4 losses on trot after few wins on trot)

regards

ps...I could also back the draw after a 2nd half goal too...but thats a different theory again !

[gecko6]

bit late in posting but city newcastle was HT draw so laid at 2.54 for 200pts

this is new increased stake

will revisit previous bets on level 50pt stake when get a chance

[gecko6]

4 of 6 games are HT draw

chelsea > 3.75 to Lay is v high so just 50pts
wigan liverpool > 3 is high so Lay of 100pts
derby bolton > Lay @ 2.7 > 150pts
sunderland blackburn > Lay @ 2.56 > 200pts

[gecko6]

city was 3-1 so that paid 200pts less comm = 190pts
chelsea ended as a draw so loss of 137.5pts
wigan was 0-1 so that paid 100pts less comm = 95pts
derby ended as a draw so loss of 255pts
sunderland was 1-2 so that paid 200pts less comm = 190pts

won 475pts, lost 392.5pts > net 82.5pts win

bank was > 756.14pts
bank now > 838.64pts
strike rate > 12/21

* chelsea was low stake as high Lay price, should avoid anything over 3 really as too much of a hit...or keep stakes low at least... strike rate is ok but need couple of decent wins to get back in profit...

[gecko6]

brum utd draw at HT so Lay @ 2.82 for 100pts

8 prem games today and 6 were HT draws which is rare

[gecko6]

utd won 1-0 so that paid 100pts less comm = 95pts

bank was > 838.64pts
bank now > 933.64pts

[gecko6]

right - had a quick look at stats for last season in premier league (2006-07)

and I have to say I'm quite surprised that I was almost spot on with thinking I would need around 60% of games to not finish as a draw

stats last yr >

games that were a draw at HT > 170
games that finished as a draw > 66 (38.82%)
games that didn't finish as a draw > 104 (61.18%)

so... just over 61% of these bets would have come in as winners

now if I had done this last season and had laid the draw at HT for 100pts every game, then to make a profit (after 5% commission) the average odds required for the Lay would have been 2.48

this would have paid 112pts at season end... not stunning but a profit

if the odds had been 2.5 average then it would have shown a 20pt loss

now the odds this season are often at 2.5 but the problem is the big 4 > they often have draw Lay odds of 3 or higher (3.75 last weekend) because they are assumed to be "bound to win" in 2nd half

this causes a problem obviously... as the liability here skews the potential return too much (ie makes the average Lay odds rise dramatically)

so > question is lower stakes or ignore these games ?

also, in general, if I wait until the odds drop a fraction in the 2nd half, the average may well drop into required profit territory (eg Lay at 2.48 or lower) but this could miss some vital goals in the few minutes after half-time

so > question is stick to HT or wait until few minutes into 2nd half and try and pinch a slightly lower price ?

* I need to check stats on the big 4 and see how often they were HT draws..
* I will check other leagues to see if any similarities or better average Lay odds
* I will run a few theories and see if anything jumps out

>>> what is pleasing is that my feeling that over half of the HT draws don't end as draws was correct...and this forms the basis of a system... I need to fine-tune so I can get the average odds required regularly enough to turn a profit in the long run if the results pan out the way I think (and the stats back me up hopefully)...

comments welcomed if anyone can help or spot any flaws !