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deswalker
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Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:49 pm Post subject: Follow that claimer!
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This thread is simple spurred on by Brendan Powells treble today, I will simply follow the best claimers in handicaps until they fail to be profitable/lose their claim whichever happens first. The stats for the pick of the conditionals around so far this season show that this could be a profitable angle at SP, with the possibility of better at early shows;
Brendan Powell: +16.38
Adam Wedge: +16.75
Tom Cannon: +18.80
Previous profitable jockeys included David Bass who the market has since readjusted around (and is also down to just the 3lbs now), and possible future one's include Willie Twiston-Davies who is rumoured to be better than his brother (who incidentally strangely never really hit great LSP's consistently, maybe because he basically went straight to stable jockey for Dad so never picked up those handy spares?).
Why handicaps? Well at least this ensures that there is unlikely to be a serious class difference between their mount and the remainder of the field so their relatively small weight allowance makes the difference, but there is no reason why their decent rides in conditions events shouldn't count (that means that you have to catch the decent one's of course!)
I'd be interested to hear what people think of this? And if there are any suggestions for others to watch out for?
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deswalker
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Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:56 pm Post subject:
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First day's entries for these three...
20/12
Brendan Powell
13:00 - Wine 'n Dine @ 4/1
Tom Cannon
None
Adam Wedge
None
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beepee1984
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Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:35 am Post subject:
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Good Luck with this Des.
Had you noticed that Powell and Cannon make their profit only in Handicap Hurdle races, didn't know if you want to look at that angle and narrow down the races even more that you should follow. |
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deswalker
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Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:48 am Post subject:
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I had noticed that the majority was from hurdles, but thought there was still Chase profit. Will check again soon, when I get the chance. Also, Wedge is better over fences...
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beepee1984
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Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:48 am Post subject:
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Another 2 Jockeys you may want to look at are:
Kielan Woods (currently claiming 5) +21.60
Ed Glassonbury (currently claiming 7) +5.03 (Handicap Hurdles +15.03) |
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deswalker
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Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:19 pm Post subject:
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20/12
Brendan Powell
13:00 - Wine 'n Dine UP @ 9/4f
Tom Cannon
None
Adam Wedge
None
First day curse! Incidentally Tom Cannon is positive for both hurdles and chases, whereas Powell is only hurdles but from relatively small samples. I'll follow the lot for now.
I'm going to watch a few of Woods and Glassonbury's rides tonight...
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deswalker
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Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:22 pm Post subject:
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21/12
Brendan Powell
14:35 - Only Witness @ 12/1
Tom Cannon
None
Adam Wedge
14:45 - Bob's Law @ 14/1
Powell and Wedge both on bottom weights in handicap chases, should be an interesting 20 minutes or so...
Kielan Woods was 4th today on a rag at Taunton and rides against Powell tomorrow (Ten Fires @ 18/1), Glassonbury also had one ride today which was backed but beat.
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deswalker
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Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2011 3:15 pm Post subject:
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21/12
Brendan Powell
14:35 - Only Witness 1st @ 9/2
Tom Cannon
None
Adam Wedge
14:45 - Bob's Law UP @ 8/1
So Powell pops up for his dad at 9/2, 1 from 3 a good start. Rule 4 on the early price but still a cracking return.
Strike: 33%
LSP: +2.50
LSP (early): +8.20
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deswalker
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Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2011 3:26 pm Post subject:
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22/12
Brendan Powell
14:10 Jackers @ 9/2
15:40 Triomphal (no bet)
Tom Cannon
13:40 Sahrati (no bet)
Adam Wedge
None
Somehow missed 2 rides from Wedge yesterday, guess it must have been ones he picked up? 
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blueboy68
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Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2011 11:38 am Post subject:
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Keep your eye on Joe Colliver Des, no doubt you seen me banging on about
him but I do think hes very accomplished and gives them a good ride,
hes 10 winners from 65 with 28 placed from 65 last 12mths £54 profit,
See how he goes before adding him if you want or not, just thought I'd
put it out there..good luck with this, as you know you can get some nice
claimers that don't seem to get backed as much 
Had two rides today, mentioned earlier that he would be lucky to get a
winner but his one in the bumper has a chance, 3rd 28/1 |
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deswalker
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Posted: Sun Dec 25, 2011 11:56 am Post subject:
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Well Boxing Day is the usual chaos! Powell, Wedge, Cannon, Woods and Glassonbury all in action of one type or another and they have pretty much managed to avoid each other...
26/12
Brendan Powell
12:20 - Kala Patthar (no bet)
14:30 - Milarrow (no bet)
15:35 - Western High (no bet)
Tom Cannon
14:05 - Brushford
14:40 - Owner Occupier
15:15 - Osmosia
15:45 - Bon Spiel (conditionals handicap)
Adam Wedge
12:35 - Al Shababiya (no bet)
14:15 - Gilwen Glory
15:25 - Oscar Gogo
Kielan Woods
12:15 - Soudain (no bet)
13:20 - Spanish Cruise
Ed Glassonbury
15:15 - Daneva
So, five bets, and another two that I am looking out for, although Glassonbury's appears to have far better form chances than Cannon's in the clash. Best of the lot for me appears to be Owner Occupier who went close lto and the claimer takes over on...
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