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afrandi
Group 1 Class
 
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 428
Location: Brisbane Aussie
Cash Winnings: 0
Free Bets Won: 0
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Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 3:50 pm Post subject: GF/GA Football (Soccer)
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Regurgitation from last year. The figures in brackets are gf/ga @ home/away. GMT +10. Progressive staking, non regressive.
Maybe with view to trade also.
Parameters Being.
1) Current season to be min 8 games in.
2) GF twice that of or more that off opponant. GA equal to or less than.
3) No Cup/Friendlies etc... must be league ladder.
4) Selection to have at min 5 GF.
Start Bank $25.00
Current Stake $1.25
Bet 1 08.12. (Thu) 2:00 Turkey1 Eskisehirspor (6/7) Antalyaspor (3/8) $1.90 Result 1-0
Bet 2 08.12. (Thu) 2:00 Turkey1 Karabukspor (10/7) Gaziantepspor (5/8) $2.60 Result 0-0
Bet 3 08.12. (Thu) 4:30 Germany4W 07 Elversberg (8/5) Koblenz (4/11) $2.25 Result 3-0
Total staked $3.75
Closing Bank $21.25
Total Returns $5.21
New Bank $26.46
S/R 2/3 66.67%
L.S.P $1.15
+/- Trading adjustment $1.12
Settled Bank $27.58 |
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afrandi
Group 1 Class
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 428
Location: Brisbane Aussie
Cash Winnings: 0
Free Bets Won: 0
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Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 12:01 am Post subject:
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Well last night was a good learning experience in regards to trading. What I learnt is firstly, I didn't really know what I was doing ...  , and secondly but more importantly I am to have trading rules, if this is to move ahead in a positive manner. I know more rules will throw up as I learn more approaches, so will add more trading rules as required.
Trading Parameters.
1a) Where selection odds are less than $2 odds - the trading stake is to be equal to or less than the potential profit of the back stake. The trade return should be equal to or more than the back stake.
1b) Where selection odds are more than $2 odds - the trading stake is to be equal to or less than the back stake. The trade return should be equal to or more than the back stake.
With Bet 1 scoring in 91st min, I had already traded out, however mis-staked the Bet 2 trade. Got a bit ugly, but ended the night in growth. I was fully aware that if any goals in Turkey games last night they were going to be late, however, how long do you wait, before trading! How long is a piece of string?
Any suggestions, trading pointers, most welcome.
Cheers
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afrandi
Group 1 Class
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 428
Location: Brisbane Aussie
Cash Winnings: 0
Free Bets Won: 0
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Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 12:01 am Post subject:
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(post double up. please delete)
Last edited by afrandi on Thu Dec 08, 2011 12:18 am; edited 1 time in total |
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afrandi
Group 1 Class
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 428
Location: Brisbane Aussie
Cash Winnings: 0
Free Bets Won: 0
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Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 12:14 am Post subject:
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Start Bank $25
Current Bank $27.58
Current stake $1.38
Bet 4 09.12. (Fri) 2:35 Saudi Arabia Al Ahli Jeddah (12/3) Al Raed (1/4) $1.44 Result 1-0
Closing Bank $26.20
Returns $2.00
New Bank $28.20
S/R 3/4 75%
L.S.P $1.59 |
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afrandi
Group 1 Class
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 428
Location: Brisbane Aussie
Cash Winnings: 0
Free Bets Won: 0
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Posted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 7:37 pm Post subject:
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Ive decided Im not dispositioned to trade!!
Just IMHO I feel that there is too much human involvement in regards to momentum trading and therefore subject to discretion. Which is not my cuppa tea. However the idea of insuring the bet does appeal to me.
Where a team has scored twice than and allowed equal to or less than, insuring 0-0 and 1-1 appeals to me. If they draw at 2-2, than really, only in my opinion, they deserved to lose!...(probably will see me eating my hat).
It sounds very similar to DNB, (or DRAW insurance)and it is practically, however I find the insurance angle returns a few more points in terms of odds. And with Odds being the name of the game, I will be looking to enter markets as early as possible.
One more note, it requires a little bigger bank, as .25 is minimum stake (for insurance purposes).
That being said, I have a HEAP of selections for this weekend!
Will post soon with a new bank and selection.
PS Im also thinking to implement a min odds range too... will think more on that later. |
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afrandi
Group 1 Class
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 428
Location: Brisbane Aussie
Cash Winnings: 0
Free Bets Won: 0
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Posted: Sat Dec 10, 2011 12:03 am Post subject:
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So with a night off to gather senses, I have come up with, insuring the 1-1 only. so all bets thus forward are 1-1 insured. Staking at 5% (+ insurance), and will only play odds of $1.40+.
Initial Bank $100
Current Bank $100
Current stake $5(+ insurance)
Bet 1 10.12. (Sat) 16:30 Aussie Central Coast M. (6/3) Newcastle Jets (1/8) staked $5.91 @ $1.48 Result 2-0 Returns $8.75
Bet 2 10.12. (Sat) 18:45 Aussie Melbourne Victory (7/6) Adelaide United (2/9) staked $5.91 @ $1.52 Result 1-1 Returns $5.91
Bet 3 10.12. (Sat) 22:00 Serbia1 Sloboda Point (10/6) OFK Beograd (2/9) staked $5.83 @ $1.41 Result 1-2
Bet 4 10.12. (Sat) 23:00 Germany3 Wac. Burghausen (15/9) Carl Zeiss Jena (7/19) staked $5.83 @ $1.54 Result 4-2 Returns $9.00
Bet 5 10.12. (Sat) 23:00 Germany4W Borussia MG II (20/13) Fortuna Koln (8/15) staked $5.83 @ $1.64 Result 2-1 Returns $9.50
Bet 6 10.12. (Sat) 23:00 Germany4S Wormatia Worms (21/10) Greuther Furth II (10/15) staked $5.91 @ $2.03 Result 2-1 Returns $12.00
Bet 7 11.12. (Sun) 0:00 Italy2 Ascoli (8/12) Varese (16/12) staked $6.11 @ $2.35 Result 0-0
Bet 8 11.12. (Sun) 0:30 Germany1 Werder (16/8) Wolfsburg (8/21) staked $5.71 @ $1.42 Result 4-1 Returns $8.10
Bet 9 11.12. (Sun) 1:00 England3 Sheffield United (21/14) Rochdale (10/19) staked $5.77 @ $1.40 Result 3-0 Returns $8.08
Bet 10 11.12. (Sun) 1:00 England3 Walsall (9/14) Charlton Athletic (19/7) staked $5.83 @ $1.54 Result 1-1 Returns $5.83
Bet 11 11.12. (Sun) 1:00 England2 Burnley (18/14) Portsmouth (6/14) staked $5.91 @ $1.69 Result 0-1
Bet 12 11.12. (Sun) 1:00 Scotland 1 Aberdeen (13/9) Saint Mirren (6/12) staked $6.00 @ $1.75 Result 2-2...
Bet 13 11.12. (Sun) 1:00 England1 Swansea City (8/2) Fulham (4/7) staked $6.00 @ $2.18 Result 2-0 Returns $13.15
Bet 14 11.12. (Sun) 2:00 Israel1 Bnei Sakhnin (16/5) Ashdod (5/9) staked $5.91 @ $1.78 Result 1-2
Bet 15 11.12. (Sun) 3:00 Italy1 Lecce (5/12) Lazio (11/4) staked $6.00 @ $1.59 Result 2-3 Returns $9.55
Bet 16 11.12. (Sun) 3:30 Austria1 Mattersburg (13/15) Kapfenberger SV (3/24) staked $5.91 @ $1.44 Result 2-0 Returns $8.50
Total staked $94.37
Closing Bank $5.63
Last edited by afrandi on Sun Dec 11, 2011 6:07 am; edited 12 times in total |
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afrandi
Group 1 Class
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 428
Location: Brisbane Aussie
Cash Winnings: 0
Free Bets Won: 0
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Posted: Sat Dec 10, 2011 12:25 am Post subject:
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The following are games that are close to qualifying bets and will be looking to enter LIP as markets adjust.
10.12. (Sat) 23:00 Germany3 Jahn Regensburg (18/7) Werder II (8/12) Result 3-2
10.12. (Sat) 23:00 Germany3 Saarbrucken (18/10) RW Oberhausen (3/11) Result 5-2
10.12. (Sat) 23:00 Germany4N Holstein Kiel (32/8) Wolfsburg II (11/11) Result 2-1
10.12. (Sat) 23:00 Germany4S Ingolstadt 04 II (14/18) Bayern Alzenau (5/22) Result 4-1
11.12. (Sun) 0:00 Ukraine Karpaty (7/16) Dynamo Kiev (16/4) Result 0-1
11.12. (Sun) 1:15 Greece1 PAOK (8/3) Atromitos (4/6) Result 3-1
11.12. (Sun) 3:00 Cyprus AEL Limassol (6/2) Ethnikos Achna (2/4)
Result 0-0
I will also be adding more bets throughout night as funds become available.
Have a good night all.
Last edited by afrandi on Sat Dec 10, 2011 7:10 pm; edited 3 times in total |
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barney21
Classic Winner
Joined: 01 Feb 2007
Posts: 623
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Posted: Sat Dec 10, 2011 8:51 am Post subject:
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| Good luck with this Afrandi try to keep it as simple as possible cheers. |
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kenton17
Group 2 Class
Joined: 12 Apr 2011
Posts: 196
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Posted: Sat Dec 10, 2011 9:52 am Post subject:
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| [REMOVED] |
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afrandi
Group 1 Class
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 428
Location: Brisbane Aussie
Cash Winnings: 0
Free Bets Won: 0
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Posted: Sat Dec 10, 2011 11:06 am Post subject:
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Thanks for support guys,
heres hoping for a good night all round. The icing on the cake too is the Real/Barcelona game also qualifies so thats going to be a ripper, either way!
afrandi |
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afrandi
Group 1 Class
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 428
Location: Brisbane Aussie
Cash Winnings: 0
Free Bets Won: 0
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Posted: Sat Dec 10, 2011 4:13 pm Post subject:
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Bet 17 11.12. (Sun) 2:00 Spain3gIV Cadiz (19/4) San Roque (9/7) Staked $5.91 @ $1.61 Result 1-1 Returns $5.91
Bet 18 11.12. (Sun) 5:00 Belgium1 Kortrijk (12/6) Westerlo (2/14) staked $5.83 @$1.43 Result 1-0 Returns $8.30
Last edited by afrandi on Sun Dec 11, 2011 6:09 am; edited 3 times in total |
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afrandi
Group 1 Class
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 428
Location: Brisbane Aussie
Cash Winnings: 0
Free Bets Won: 0
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Posted: Sat Dec 10, 2011 5:02 pm Post subject:
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Bet 19 11.12. (Sun) 3:00 Spain2 Dep. La Coruna (17/8) Numancia (8/10) staked $5.91 @ $1.41 Result 3-1 Returns $8.30
Bet 20 11.12. (Sun) 3:30 Greece1 AEK (10/2) PAS Giannina (4/8) staked $5.83 @ $1.43 Result 2-1 Returns $8.30
Bet 21 4:00 France1 Rennais (12/8) Brestois (3/8) staked $6.00 @ $1.44 Result 1-1 Returns $6.00
Last edited by afrandi on Sun Dec 11, 2011 6:11 am; edited 2 times in total |
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