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Zipster
Stallion
 
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Posts: 5178
Location: Ipswich, UK
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Posted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:26 am Post subject: Zipsters Four-Folds Acc & Goals Galore (2011-2012)
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Right it is almost that time of the year again for the football season to kick off which means it is time to get betting again!!
This year i am going to be doing...
Accumulators (Four-Folds) (Bet365)
Goals Galore (Four-Folds) (Betfred)
Accumulators (Four-Folds)
What i have done is i have taken my horse racing scoring system and converted it to football, i shall be rating all games from the top three tiers in England (Premier, Championship & League One) only, i have found in the past the league two games did not archive the results i wanted as a fair few of the teams have not played each other too often. the figures that i shall be inputting are as follows..
Home Team:
Form: Last three games at home
Head2Head Form: Last three games at home against opponents
Head2Head Home: All games against opponents at home
Head2Head Overall: All games against opponents
Away Team:
Form: Last three away games
Head2Head Form: Last three games away against opponents
Head2Head Home: All games against opponents away from home
Head2Head Overall: All games against opponents
Each team will then be given a scores depending on wins, draws or defeats in each section and given a total score. The team with the highest score will then have the other teams score deducted from their score given the winning team a final score. I will then take the top scoring four teams from all the games and these will be the four-fold selections.
Goals Galore (Four-Folds)
For those not aware of this bet, it is a bet that Betfred offer where you are beating on games for both teams to score, it does not matter how many they score just as long as both teams score you bet will come in and i like this bet because it could be a winner by half-time! I shall again be rating games in the top three tiers of England (Premier, Championship & League One) only. The stats that i enter for these as follows:
Home Team:
Form: Goals for & against and number of nils in last three home games
Away Team:
Form: Goals for & against and number of nils in last three away games
Head2Head:
Head2Head Form: Goals for & against and number of nils in last three games between the two sides (Home)
Head2Head Home: Goals for & against in all home games between the two
Head2Head Overall: Goals for & against in all games between the two
There are then a lot of calculations made which my excel spreadsheet will take care of and i will not go into the details as there are far too many calculations, but this will result in each game getting a score for the chances of both teams scoring and as in the other bet i will take the top four scores and these will be the bet.
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Zipster
Stallion
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Posts: 5178
Location: Ipswich, UK
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Posted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:27 am Post subject:
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For the first couple of weeks because obviously there is no form to go off i shall be using friendly results. This may not be the best idea but at least we can get things off a running this weekend!
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Zipster
Stallion
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Posts: 5178
Location: Ipswich, UK
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Posted: Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:41 am Post subject:
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Week 1 (6th & 7th August)
Accumulators (Four-Folds)
Burnley Vs Watford (2-2)
Huddersfield Vs Bury (1-1)
MK Dons Vs Hartlepool (2-2)
Preston Vs Colchester (2-4)
2pt Win @ 9.49 (Bet365) (Lost)
Goals Galore (Four-Folds)
Coventry Vs Leicester (0-1)
Brighton Vs Doncaster (2-1)
Peterborough Vs Crystal Palace (2-1)
MK Dons Vs Hartlepool (2-2)
2pt Win @ 6.50 (Betfred) (Lost)
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Last edited by Zipster on Sat Aug 06, 2011 4:01 pm; edited 3 times in total |
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matty117
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 19 Jun 2011
Posts: 1947
Location: Birmingham
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Posted: Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:43 am Post subject:
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Looks an interesting Blog here, will follow this one with much interest.
Good luck with this  |
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Molineux
Group 1 Class
Joined: 23 Sep 2008
Posts: 476
Location: Wirral aka Gods little acre
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Posted: Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:17 pm Post subject:
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Just had a look on Freds site the odds have dramatically dropped since last season. (six selections which was my occasional bet was 33/1 and is now 16/1)
Good luck with this Zipster I was going to follow you in on this but at these odds baldy can keep his goals galore.
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Zipster
Stallion
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Posts: 5178
Location: Ipswich, UK
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Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 1:32 pm Post subject:
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Well the first Goals Galore bet is over before the day really starts! 
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jimmydan
Group 1 Class
Joined: 02 Feb 2011
Posts: 448
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Posted: Sat Aug 06, 2011 4:25 pm Post subject:
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coventry let us down  |
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Zipster
Stallion
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Posts: 5178
Location: Ipswich, UK
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Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:01 am Post subject:
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Accumulators (Four-Folds): -2.00
Goals Galore (Four-Folds): -2.00
Week 2 (13th & 14th August)
Accumulators (Four-Folds)
(Prem) West Brom Vs Man Utd (1-2)
(Champ) Crystal Palace Vs Burnley (2-0)
(L1) Bury Vs Carlisle (0-2)
(L1) Rochdale Vs Huddersfield (2-2)
2pt Win @ 33.48 (Bet365) (Lost)
Goals Galore (Four-Folds)
(Champ) Crystal Palace Vs Burnley (2-0)
(Champ) Leicester Vs Reading (0-2)
(L1) Colchester Vs Wycombe (1-1)
(L1) Rochdale Vs Huddersfield (2-2)
2pt Win @ 9.01 (William Hill) (Lost)
Just a note to say we have ditched Betfred for the Goals Galore bet, their value this season is ridiculous so we have switched to William Hill. This weeks selections on Betfred offer just 6.81 whereas William Hill offer 9.01!
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Zipster
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Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Posts: 5178
Location: Ipswich, UK
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Posted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 12:16 pm Post subject:
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Accumulators (Four-Folds): -4.00
Goals Galore (Four-Folds): -4.00
Week 2 (Mid-Week) (16th & 17th August)
Accumulators (Four-Folds)
(Champ) Leicester Vs Bristol City ()
(L1) Scunthorpe Vs Oldham (1-2)
(L1) Sheff Utd Vs Walsall (3-2)
(L2) Crewe Vs Rotherham (1-2)
2pt Win @ 11.10 (Bet365) (Lost)
Goals Galore (Four-Folds)
(Champ) Crystal Palace Vs Coventry (2-1)
(L1) Chesterfield Vs Preston (0-2)
(L1) Hartlepool Vs Huddersfield (0-0)
(L2) Oxford Vs Shrewsbury (2-0)
2pt Win @ 9.89 (William Hill) (Lost)
Here are the first mid-week selections of the new season, i have decided to reintroduce league two fixtures to the ratings, matches will only be rated if the two teams have met at least ten times at the home sides stadium which will rule out the majority of matches but some will get ratings.
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Zipster
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Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Posts: 5178
Location: Ipswich, UK
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Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2011 10:01 am Post subject:
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Accumulators (Four-Folds): -6.00
Goals Galore (Four-Folds): -6.00
Week 3 (20th & 21st August)
Accumulators (Four-Folds)
(Prem) Chelsea Vs West Brom
(Prem) Wolves Vs Fulham
(L1) Wycombe Vs Bury
(L2) Swindon Vs Oxford
2pt Win @ 14.90 (Bet365)
Goals Galore (Four-Folds)
(Champ) Burnley Vs Cardiff
(Champ) Nottm Forest Vs Leicester
(Champ) Southampton Vs Millwall
(L1) Huddersfield Vs Colchester
2pt Win @ 10.07 (William Hill)
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Zipster
Stallion
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Posts: 5178
Location: Ipswich, UK
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Posted: Tue Aug 23, 2011 1:06 pm Post subject:
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Week 3 (Mid-Week) (23rd & 24th August)
Accumulators (Four-Folds)
23-Aug (Carling Cup) Charlton Vs Reading
23-Aug (Carling Cup) Bournemouth Vs West Brom
23-Aug (Carling Cup) Bury Vs Leicester
24-Aug (Carling Cup) Peterborough Vs Middlesbrough
2pt Win @ 53.12 (Bet365)
Goals Galore (Four-Folds)
23-Aug (Carling Cup) Brighton Vs Sunderland
23-Aug (Carling Cup) Bury Vs Leicester
23-Aug (Carling Cup) Northampton Vs Wolves
24-Aug (Carling Cup) Blackburn Vs Sheff Wed
2pt Win @ 9.06 (William Hill)
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Zipster
Stallion
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Posts: 5178
Location: Ipswich, UK
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Posted: Fri Aug 26, 2011 9:58 am Post subject:
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Week 4 (27th & 28th August)
Accumulators (Four-Folds)
27-Aug (Prem) Swansea (84.34%) Vs Sunderland (15.66%)
27-Aug (Champ) Middlesbrough (91.73%) Vs Coventry (8.27%)
27-Aug (L1) Exeter (11.04%) Vs Chesterfield (88.96%)
27-Aug (L2) Bristol Rovers (92.92%) Vs Hereford (7.08%)
2pt Win @ 20.21 (Bet365)
Goals Galore (Four-Folds)
(Champ) Ipswich Vs Leeds
(L2) Bradford Vs Barnet
(L2) Cheltenham Vs Crawley
(L2) Port Vale Vs Southend
2pt Win @ 7.60 (William Hill)
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