gecko6's "Lay the draw at HT" blog

[gecko6]

simple theory

pick a tight game and if it is a draw at HT, then Lay the draw

this is on the basis that the draw will be not a lot over 2.0 at halftime... and the fact that less than half these games will remain a draw

thus if I can Lay at evens, and the amount that end as draws is under 50%, I should in theory make a small profit ?!

starting with today's games... if I can keep an eye on them in between watching spurs and having a BBQ...

will have the usual 1,000pts bank and will Lay about 50pts a game for starters... will lose a few obviously but hopefully will pick up some wins early on in order to show a profit and then increase the stake

[gecko6]

quick 30pts Lay on the draw on sunderland spurs @ 2.44

not huge stake as it does look like a 0-0 but going with the theory...

[Chudovski]

Nice start dude.

[gecko6]

thanks mate... left it late but a win is a win

next up is derby pompey > nicely poised at 1-1 at HT so laying the draw at 2.46 currently > will go 30pts again

other games aren't draws so will just have this one for now...

[gecko6]

whoa
almost got lucky again with a late winner



ok

bet 1 > paid 30pts less Betfair comm so 28.50 profit
bet 2 > lost 43.2pts
so net return of -14.7pts so far (bank of 985.3pts)

expercting to lose as many as win but hoping the edge will be slightly towards the amount that dont stay as draws...guessing I will have say 12 wins from first 20 games perhaps ? which should wipe out the losses and give a profit

stakes will increase when I'm comfortable with it

almost got off to a cracker of a start with 2 wins today

and I think it was deco who inspired this - watched his blog from last season and I noticed the games that were draws at HT often didnt end that way - I think it was only 25% of them - if we can repeat that then it will be happy days

[gecko6]

utd 0-0 at HT so this is a draw...but doesnt really appeal as the draw price is 3.8 !
I want draws at 2.4 or so max really or ther eis too much risk..

might trade if it drops rapidly as utd will probably pinch a late winner but we shall watch for now

[gecko6]

draw now 2.2 so will Lay for 20pts

[brewster39]

good lcuk mate looking tight!
_________________
brewsty39

[gecko6]

thanks mate...went a bit wrong that one but c'est la vie...

tonight's games..only wigan v boro is draw at HT so will Lay the draw at 2.54 currently for 50pts

[gecko6]

bank was > 985.30pts

lost 24pts on the Lay on utd game on sunday

tonight > won 50pts as game finished 1-0 wigan, less comm of 2.5pts = 47.5pts

bank now > 1008.8pts
profit > 8.8pts
strike rate > 2/4 (50%)

early days but hopefully the long-term trend will be in favour ie more games will change from the HT draw... good to sneak into profit already though...

[Betfairalfie]

Interesting blog Good luck gecko

[gecko6]

thanks BFA

only prem game which is a HT draw is brum v wham

so will Lay at 2.66 for 50pts