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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
  
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Sat Jun 16, 2012 11:57 am Post subject:
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Quote:
CURTIS, Rebecca:
All Non Handicap Hurdles: 7 points to win.
C4 Novice Hurdles: increased to 8 points to win.
Confused mate...
7 points x 1.5 = 10.5 points
8 points x 1.5 = 12 points  |
Please read my post again. I do not think it could be clearer. The only races where upgrade in stakes apply is on the Turf.
Stakes on the AW and NH are already beginning to get serious and are likely to get more so as results continue to come in. You are moving towards getting stakes out of line. Admittedly against the Turf, which might not seem too bad at this stage. But as stakes mount (hopefully) the bias will get worse and worse. If you are not happy then - fine, continue with this thread showing the uplifted stakes but my thread will show the actual stakes recommended by me.
I am not being nasty or confrontational. I can see your logic. I just do not want to have the worry about uplifted stakes influencing my staking plan calculations for AW and NH. These calculations are already becoming a bit complicated as I seek to pinpoint winning areas more aggressively than is the case with the Turf. I repeat, staking will increase automatically, when justified, for the AW and NH and thus the need for uplifting stakes will not be there.
Last edited by EyeNoAgain on Sat Jun 16, 2012 12:12 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Sat Jun 16, 2012 12:11 pm Post subject:
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I must confess that the position as regards the Turf is not what it should be. The problem has been the sheer number of races covered and the fact that I just cannot keep up with it. I am concentrating on the AW and NH because our stats are reasonably up to date and I feel confident about the recommendations we are giving.
With the Turf I am by no means happy with Tim Easterby and have some reservations about Mark Johnston. But, is my time to be spent trying to catch up on masses of results on the Turf or would it be better spent on concentrating on the areas (AW and NH) where I feel that I am in control thanks to a managable number of races and pretty recent stats (25/05 for NH and 31/05 for AW)? Stats on Turf are up to 13/05.
I think I am going the right way but what do you think (addressed mainly but not exclusively to bettingted). |
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bettingted
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 20 Feb 2010
Posts: 2284
Location: Dublin
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Posted: Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:16 pm Post subject:
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Hi Eyenoagain I have guests family over this weekend so cant really post much but great start Crackentorp 
I will reply to your posts soon and Im happy to agree to what you suggest because your the main man for the stats  |
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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Sat Jun 16, 2012 5:01 pm Post subject:
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CRACKENTORP wins at 10/1 dashing aside my doubts over Tim Eaterby. 
Van Ellis non runner.
Jonny Lester is now bald! Got beat, with or with his hair!
Can Tim make it a day to remember with his 7f runner at Leicester? Unfortunately not as it has been abandoned.
Never mind. Another good day. Good hit bettingted |
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bettingted
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 20 Feb 2010
Posts: 2284
Location: Dublin
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Posted: Sat Jun 16, 2012 9:25 pm Post subject:
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Yes great hit today Crackentorp at 10/1
is that a new trainer 
Well Tim Easterby delivered the goodies today and earned his keep for now anyhow 
I need to get some free time to read your earlier posts and come back to you as I will need to concentrate more on them to understand better:)
I do have one question for you though I have taken Crackentorp at 8/1 this morning with Bet 365 and I got paid at 10/1 odds with them as its BOG, as I put up 8/1 earlier do I record the result as 8/1 or 10/1, which is fair? Again I think most bookies are BOG anyway aren't they? |
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bettingted
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 20 Feb 2010
Posts: 2284
Location: Dublin
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Posted: Sun Jun 17, 2012 1:44 am Post subject:
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Selections Day 53 - Sunday 17th June 2012
TURF
NH
AW
DONCASTER TURF
4:10 Freebets.co.uk Handicap Cl5 7f
Regal Acclaim 12 3 8-10 Tim Easterby 3 PTS WIN 
Best Priced on Oddschecker 9/2 Paddy Power
2nd of 12 - Tracked leaders, headway 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on under pressure final furlong (op 9/2)
Last edited by bettingted on Mon Jun 18, 2012 9:03 am; edited 3 times in total |
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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Sun Jun 17, 2012 10:54 am Post subject:
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| Quote: |
Quote:
Tim Eaterby
is that a new trainer |
Touche!
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EyeNoAgain
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 03 Jun 2010
Posts: 1797
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Posted: Sun Jun 17, 2012 10:59 am Post subject:
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10/1 is fair.
a} Most bookies are BOG as you say.
b} Your bet was with Bet365 so again BOG.
c} We always stress to go for BOG.
I cannot think that there is room for argument, mate.
Pity that we have not kept the figures up to date as that little beauty must have put us well ahead. |
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bettingted
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 20 Feb 2010
Posts: 2284
Location: Dublin
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Posted: Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:06 am Post subject:
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| I know mate - this is my mission to trawl over selections and get an up to date p/l, we must be ahead but need to double check mate |
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bettingted
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 20 Feb 2010
Posts: 2284
Location: Dublin
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Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2012 9:10 am Post subject:
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Selections Day 54 - Monday 18th June 2012
TURF
NH
AW
CARLISLE
3:15 Watch Racing UK On Sky 432 Handicap (Div II) Cl6 5f193y
Insolenceofoffice 14 p 4 9-11 Richard Ford - 3 PTS WIN
Best Priced on Oddschecker 9/2 Most Bookmakers][/b]
3rd of 9 - Close up, ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace inside final furlong (op 13-2 tchd 7-1)
4:45 Cumwhinton Handicap (Betfair 10 Furlong Flat Series Qualifier) Cl5 1m1f61y
Smart Step 9 4 9-4 Mark Johnston - 1.5 PTS WIN
Best Priced on Oddschecker 8/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power][/b]
9th of 11 - Chased winner, ridden over 3f out, weakened over 2f out (op 9-1) |
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bettingted
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 20 Feb 2010
Posts: 2284
Location: Dublin
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Posted: Tue Jun 19, 2012 9:24 am Post subject:
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Selections Day 55 - Tuesday 19th June 2012
TURF
NH
AW
BRIGHTON
6:30 British Stallion Studs Supporting British Racing E B F Maiden Stakes Cl5 5f213y
It´s Only Business 8 2 9-3 Bill Turner- 1.5 PTS WIN
Best Priced on Oddschecker 9/1 Totesport, Boylesports Betfred, Paddy Power
3rd of 6 - Chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, kept on final furlong (tchd 20-1)
THIRSK
5:45 "Summer Jazz" Evening Meeting Monday 25th June Handicap Cl6 5f
Dazzlin Bluebell 14 3 8-7 Tim Easterby- 1.5 PTS WIN
Best Priced on Oddschecker 20/1 Totesport, Betfred, Blue Sq
9th of 15 - Close up on wide outside, ridden along 2f out, soon weakened (op 33-1) |
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bettingted
Triple Crown Winner
Joined: 20 Feb 2010
Posts: 2284
Location: Dublin
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Posted: Wed Jun 20, 2012 10:40 am Post subject:
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Selections Day 56 - Wednesday 20th June 2012
TURF
NH
AW
RIPON TURF
7:50 ripon-races.co.uk Handicap Cl4 1m1f170y
Maven 12 4 9-1 Tim Easterby- 1.5 PTS WIN
Best Priced on Oddschecker 5/1 SkyBet, Sporting Bet, Paddy Power, Coral, William Hill
3rd of 9 - Led, headed well over 1f out, kept on same pace (op 6-1)
Last edited by bettingted on Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:53 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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