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SashoK
Handicapper
 
Joined: 22 Feb 2012
Posts: 13
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Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:15 pm Post subject:
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| the dog scores and i am 50% red going to wait a while and see how it pans out |
I was thinking for a different approach here - since the odds went down after the dog scored, can we make another Lay and double the stake? If we do this, there are a few options:
- Favorite scores a quick equalizer, odds will go up a bit, we can hedge for a smaller loss now, or we can wait for the fav to score another goal, as there is plenty of time left
- Dog scores another one and we're out for decent profit
- Neither team score, we wait until around 70th minute (draw odds should go up a bit by then and we hedge for a smaller loss)
- the issue would be if the fav equalizes just before we get out at 70th minute, but then we can again hedge for a loss (as if it was 0-0 the whole time).
What do you guys think? |
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sportking
Classic Winner
Joined: 25 May 2006
Posts: 868
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Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:19 pm Post subject:
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ht0-1 and i am ou for 50% loss.
i can see your way of thinking, something for me to think about |
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sportking
Classic Winner
Joined: 25 May 2006
Posts: 868
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Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:22 pm Post subject:
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| o ye and its afc cup game |
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SashoK
Handicapper
Joined: 22 Feb 2012
Posts: 13
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Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:22 pm Post subject:
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I am trying this approach here, as the dog seems to be playing decent, as per Bet365 stats and I am hoping they score another one, or market will adjust and odds for draw will start going up
But I only entered the 1st time @3.5 ... After it's 0-1 I did another Lay @ 3.05, so my average now is 3.3 . If you had entered at the start of the game, you'd have been looking at higher average now.
Let's see how this works out. |
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sportking
Classic Winner
Joined: 25 May 2006
Posts: 868
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Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:24 pm Post subject:
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| its on Betfair video |
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hammerddh
Group 2 Class
Joined: 29 Nov 2005
Posts: 128
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Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:47 pm Post subject:
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Day 1
Matches played 5
Winners 4
Losers 1
Flat 0
Profit = 4.24
Overall profit = 4.24
All matches to a liability of £50 which represents 5% of overall bank
First game up today for me is nizhny |
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SashoK
Handicapper
Joined: 22 Feb 2012
Posts: 13
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Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:01 pm Post subject:
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BANG - a goal from the home team in Home UTD vs. Yangon UTD in the 68th minute, just 2 minutes before I was thinking to exit. Waiting 5 more minutes until the 75th and I am going out for a loss.
WOW... 2-1 in the 74th minute, just when I was calculating the size of my exit back bet... I know it sounds a bit TK style, but these things do happen 
Draw odds now at 8.4 and I am going out for a very nice profit |
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jasper65
Group 3 Class
Joined: 12 Mar 2012
Posts: 83
Location: South West
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Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:02 pm Post subject:
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LOL...i hope its not every week ..LOL
_________________
Do your own research..its worth it |
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sportking
Classic Winner
Joined: 25 May 2006
Posts: 868
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Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:03 pm Post subject:
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| lol well done mate |
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spikesince1999
Handicapper
Joined: 21 Apr 2007
Posts: 16
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Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:19 pm Post subject:
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| Nizhny 1 - 1 against Torpedo Moscow with the dog scoring the first but nizhny quickly equalised |
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sportking
Classic Winner
Joined: 25 May 2006
Posts: 868
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Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:25 pm Post subject:
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| in the nizhny game @4 |
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SashoK
Handicapper
Joined: 22 Feb 2012
Posts: 13
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Posted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:27 pm Post subject:
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| Actually Nizhny and Torpedo Moskva don't seem to score a lot of goals and the russian games are very low-scoring games as overall. I will not enter at these odds, will wait until HT and will check the stats again. |
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