Monday - 26th March - Chat

Liverpool1985 · Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:04 pm Post subject: Monday - 26th March - Chat

Having a quick inplay here. CFR Cluj have gone on to win 23 of the last 31 home matches when the score has been 0-0 at Half Time. Current odds of 11/10 on Betfair for the Home win. Not massive stakes but hopefully a trading opportunity.

Liverpool1985 · Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:34 pm Post subject:

1-0 CFR Cluj Win

Either Trade out (I would) or hold on if you have more balls than me Smile

merlin · Legend Joined: 18 Apr 2006 Posts: 20202

Evening all.

MANCHESTER UNITED V FULHAM

UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 2.75

Tonight takes us to Old Trafford, for a game which could pile immense pressure on Roberto Manchini and 'the blue half' of Manchester. However, I've been studying the seasonal stats, to try and find an angle to profit from the game. Here are some of the essentials:

Man United at home
Won 79%
Drawn 7%
Lost 14%
Over 2.5 goals 62%

Fulham F.C away from home
Won 14%
Drawn 36%
Lost 50%
Under 2.5 goals 79%

The stats agree with the obvious - Fulham are highly unlikely to win tonight, having won just 14% of away games (against 'relegation fodder'):

Fulham away wins
QPR
WIGAN

However, at odds of 17, Fulham are a high-exposure Lay bet.

Man United are likely to take 3 points from a guilt-edged opportunity to go three points clear. However, while they have won nearly 80% of home games, they have also slipped-up against Man City (not exactly a 'huge shock') and Blackburn (a 'shock'). Newcastle also showed that United can be tamed if you keep it tight, coming away with a 1-1 draw. Ultimately, United are not exactly appealing to win at odds of 1.25, with a large stake the only worthwhile investment (no thanks).

Ultimately, neither backing or laying either of them looks a measured decision. What does look interesting is Fulham's stat of achieving less than 2.5 goals in 79% of their games, including their games against Arsenal and Chelsea. It should be noted that they have also lost 3-0 and 2-1 away, to Man City and Newcastle respectively, but nevertheless, you can rest assure that Fulham will be trying to keep things tight. Man United's record of 62% of games at home over 2.5 goals, does temper enthusiasm a little, but unlike some teams who come here and have a go, Fulham will play for a point or damage limitation; it just looks to be the way they are.

The value bet that appeals, is under 2.5 goals.

UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 2.75

Liverpool1985 · Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2012 5:55 pm Post subject:

Trade Chat:

1 more then as CFR Cluj came through. Istanbul BB are currently level with Besiktas (1-1) at Half Time. Having a search back through previous Besiktas Away matches with the score 1-1 at Half Time I have noticed that none of the last 9 matches have seen Over 3.5 Goals. As for Istanbul BB of their last 11 Home games 1-1 at Half Time only 3 of the 11 have ended with Over 3.5 Goals. So combined 3 of the 20 matches between these 2 in this situation have seen Over 3.5 Goals. Therefore I will have a punt on Under 3.5 Goals @ 4/5 with Betfair.

sheetsy · 2yo Joined: 26 Mar 2012 Posts: 1

ive tipped up utd as a banker,(stick ya neck out son!!!) but just looking at the teams ive got a sneaky feeling fulham will get a result!!

merlin · Legend Joined: 18 Apr 2006 Posts: 20202

1-0 at the break.... looks 50/50 I reckon for less than 2.5 goals now. Typically lucky Unt goal though Laughing

blueboy68 · Legend Joined: 22 Aug 2010 Posts: 10591

draw halftime manu full time , typical

Liverpool1985 · Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:29 pm Post subject:

Its like watching a training match. Wondering why Fulham come out for the 2nd half. Maybe saving themselves for the 85th minute onwards.

merlin · Legend Joined: 18 Apr 2006 Posts: 20202

Referee just bottled it didn't he - clear penalty for Fulham in 88th minute and he didn't dare blow for it. Pretty terrible, really is. Made the under 2.5 result secure without panic but that's poor from the ref.

Liverpool1985 · Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:55 pm Post subject:

He is probably the best ref in the Premier League in my opinion and everyone makes mistakes. It wasnt the most clear cut penalty either. About 1/4 a centimeter contact on the side of the boot. Could have looked like a dive from behind. But then the yellow card should come out i suppose if thats the thinking.

Fulham got what they deserved. Defended a 1-0 deficit. Crazy stuff. If United hadn't have been playing like the clowns the score could have been a whole lot worse. Nothing more I hate than teams who stick 11 men behind the ball when they are LOSING.

merlin · Legend Joined: 18 Apr 2006 Posts: 20202

Yep, that's why they have @80% under 2.5 goals away.... strange really but think on open pitches they would get stuffed playing open (cottage is tight).

Looked a clear penalty to me though.... even Gary Neville says it was Very Happy

talktalk · Group 3 Class Joined: 27 Feb 2007 Posts: 95

have to say if Utd win the league this year this has been a poor standard of teams competing.