Joined: 03 Jun 2008
Posts: 2342
Location: Kampala, Uganda
Posted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 7:03 am Post subject: Conference Finals 2011 - Selections and Discussions
]NY Giants @ San Francisco 49ers - 49ers -2.5 @ -110
And so we come to the Conference Finals, and with Green Bay out I’m devastated, but that’s not going to stop me making some money on the games.
For the NFC, I think this is the time, the 49ers are going to head on to the Super Bowl at the expense of the G-Men.
For a start, let’s just look at the offensive matchup from a NY perspective. They don’t and cannot run the ball, they ranked dead last in the regular season, about 83 yards a contest, and we know San Fran can stop the run better than anybody. I expect that 83 yards to not be broken here, and by stuffing the run, the 49ers are going to force Eli to throw. And let’s make no mistake, he’s had a great season, topping 5000 yards thanks to the post season, and throwing 330 yards in Green Bay. Last time he came to San Fran, NY lost, but Manning put in a great effort.
The 49ers are not great in pass coverage, but they create turnovers, and created 5 in their win against the Saints.
They will create turnovers here, and while Manning will have to pass, the 49ers have a much more balanced offence.
Over the season, the Giants secondary was smoked time and time again, and while they kept Rodgers to 264 yards last weekend, we now know that Alex Smith can put up numbers.
Let’s not forget also that Manning’s best performances have come at home, and Alex Smith will be at home, so I think all the advantages lie at San Fran’s door, despite the majority of public money thinking the 2011 Giants can do a repeat of the 2010 Packers.
The Giants run stops here, the 49ers have a better run game, a weaker pass game, but a much more orientated defence. They have been performing week in, week out for a season, the Giants have performed for a few weeks.
Look for turnovers, and play action Alex Smith passes to be the difference in this one.
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots – Ravens +7.5 @ -110
Two questions for this contest, can the Ravens stop the all mighty, pass happy offence of the Pats, and can the Ravens score enough on the Pats like the majority of teams this season? The answer to both from my point of view is yes.
I’m writing this from a field in Northern Uganda, no internet and no way to check the spread, but I believe the true line is around +5. If it is lower, I’ll play it smaller, but if it’s more than 5 points I’ll slam it.
My first angle is motivation, we have a Tom Brady led team who are at their peak offensively, but are still young enough to have shots at the Super Bowl in years to come.
The Ravens however, are ageing and this could be Ray Lewis’, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed’s last chances realistically, given their division, and their age.
The motivation factor lies squarely with the Ravens to get it done.
Ray Rice, who leads the league in scrimmage yards is a powerhouse that Bill Bellicheck is going to have few answers for. His ability to break tackles, hit the crease and catch the short passes for extra yardage means the Pats are going to have a poor 3rd down percentage this weekend.
Add to that Joe Flacco, who played a good first half against the Texans and hit the clutch passes for big gains.
The Pats will have to rely on a pass rush because they won’t stop this Baltimore offence moving otherwise.
Defensively, the Ravens are going to dish out some mean schemes, shut the run down completely and prey on Brady to force throws. He slipped up rarely against the Broncos but did force passes when under heavy pressure from defensive ends.
The key to this game is that Baltimore defence, and if they get ahead early, they’ll keep that lead.
They obviously have to stop Gronkowski and Welker, but they didn’t become a top 5 defence by allowing the likes of Mike Wallace and AJ Green to catch passes all day long in their divisional battles.
If Harbaugh can get the matchups right, read those famous skinny posts to Gronkowski, then the Pats will have a huge problem moving the ball.
Just like the Packers and the Saints, the Pats can’t contain teams, and that puts them, and not the Ravens lesser offence on the back foot.
The Ravens averaged 24 points a game this season, expect that and more this weekend, Boldin is firing strong, Flacco was accurate in clutch situations last week and Vontae Leach at full back is going to take so much pressure off Flacco in play action I don’t see the Pats making any defensive plays to stop the ravens.
I am talking moneyline win here, not a close defeat, I fully believe the public gets burned horribly, hoping for either a 2007 rematch with the Giants or a Joe Public wet dream against the 49ers.
I am going against the pass happy teams here, and am staking on a defensive minded Super Bowl, after a season of passing qb’s which have broken all the records.
Joined: 20 Jul 2005
Posts: 1137
Location: Market Harborough- Home of not much at all
Posted: Wed Jan 18, 2012 7:55 pm Post subject:
Great post Smoggy,
Hate to disagree with anything you put up but the Pats at home have a decent defensive record, only giving up on average 18.6 PPG , I cannot see Brady being contained to anything like that figure, and personally I thought the RAVEN'S were lucky to win on Sunday, they got there points from good field position on turnovers and if Texan's had had their 1st choice QB I think we would have had a different match up this weekend.
Newbie poster here but just wanted to say that I agree with the above poster on Baltimore's chances. I also thought that they were extremely lucky to win against Houston. They couldn't stop Arian Foster and they would have got well beaten if Yates wasn't a rookie QB as the Ravens are weaker against the deep ball than the run. No way is Baltimore pass rush going to stop New England, how many games is it since they got a sack?? New England are well rested as Denver didn't really give them a game last week and they are at home. I appreciate it is easy to roll with the favourites but I will here.
In the game between the 49r's and the Giants I would suggest you don't bet beforehand and just watch the first quarter. The Giants are not a great team playing from behind, if they are ahead they can "pass rush" play after play and at the moment they are probably the best pass rushing unit. Last year it was the Packers pass rush but Clay Matthews needs more support on the other side but I digress. Whoever is in front after the first quarter back them on the cap line. If the 49rs are moving the ball and are up after a quarter the Giants won't blitz and the 49rs defence will create enough 4th and to win them the game. If the Giants are up at the quarter they will the suffocate them. Simples
Joined: 03 Jun 2008
Posts: 2342
Location: Kampala, Uganda
Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 5:54 pm Post subject:
@sportspunter - just like picking the 49ers last week, I expect to have differing views, but I can't agree on your first Q spread bet. The g-men are the best in the 4th Q scoring, and the 9ers went up 14 zip early last week, so if san fran go ahead I'd be more willing to see a manning 4thq comeback. And if the giants go behind, they'll blitz more, not less, because they need the ball back. If they think coverr two wiill work then the giants will lose by 20 as frank gore will have a field day between the tackles
When 49ers beat the Giants earlier in the season they were without Frank Gore
Its a very long road trip from NY to SF and it always seems to take the edge off teams
Packers D was so bad last week that I think it flattered the Giants offence
That is what most teams do Anthony but not the Giants if they get up in a game they blitz even more because their secondary isn't strong. If they are up in the game they get more aggressive and believe that they should gamble because their strength is in their pass rush and would prefer to back them to break up the offence.
Opinions are like everyone has one, this is just mine. Good luck whatever you back. I will back whoever is up at the first quarter on the cap line.
Joined: 25 Sep 2009
Posts: 2512
Location: In front of this Computer!
Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:10 am Post subject:
Quote:
When 49ers beat the Giants earlier in the season they were without Frank Gore
Its a very long road trip from NY to SF and it always seems to take the edge off teams
Packers D was so bad last week that I think it flattered the Giants offence
I've already mentioned this in the the other thread and you're spot on Anthony. Smoggy's made some top points too. There's no better team this year in 4th quarter play than the Giants for a start and my worry for this game is that the 49ers have only really heavily outscored their opponent twice against the Buccs and the Rams and to be honest they are THE two worst teams this year. The line of 2.5 is absolutely spot on I think which is what makes this game so hard to call in my opinion. The East/West trip though is crucial and you shouldn't discard it's effect. The Giants have faultered on long trips this season twice:
Week 9 Giants went to New England and won - week later went to San Fran and lost.
Week 14 Giants went to Dallas and won - week later came to Washington and lost.
I like the 49ers to win this because I just feel their defence is that good, but they need a lead at half time. I think the line is spot on so won't be touching it, but I may take the outright for the 49ers. If the Giants are within a TD in the 4th they may nick it (God forbid!)
Don't read too much into the win against the Packers either. What I saw from the Pack and Rodgers in particular was quite obviously a two week break! They were truly awful - everywhere! Double digit dropped passes which if just half of them had been caught would have put a totally different score on the scoreboard. Rodgers didn't play the Detroit game and then had a bye week - it showed against the Giants.
As far as the other game goes I just have this sneaky feeling the Ravens aren't done yet. I know it looks a gimme with Brady in such top form, but one defensive game does not make a season. Am I the only one that thinks the odds of 8/1 still on offer for the Ravens to win the Superbowl look ridiculous at the moment???
If the 49ers get there I'd fancy the Ravens against them as it's like for like heavy D teams, but the Ravens have a better QB (on his day!) Funnily enough against the Giants i'd have the Giants favourite with the heavy pass rush from the Giants making Flacco throw picks. I am so tempted to take the Ravens. _________________ Read My Blog - NFL Weekly Picks & Much More!! http://www.olbg.com/blogs/Chipmonkadidooda
39 out of 42 Profitable Months Since Joining in 2009
Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 10:55 pm Post subject: who will reach final
won goals galore today and put 400 on baltimore at 13/2 and 300 on 49ers at 100/30. i thinks two great defences will come out on top with two low scoring games..what you think is my money safe???
its a first post smoggy..i think u can safely say its lies lol...i love the pats 2day and have a sneaky feeling for the niners! _________________ Only for bad luck i would have no luck!!!
Joined: 01 Jan 2010
Posts: 1538
Location: Texas USA
Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:01 pm Post subject:
My initial fancy for the NFC Championship was the Giants. I do think they are coming into their game just at the right time in the play-offs, and regardless of how Green Bay may or may not have played last week compared to the Pack we all know from the regular season, the Giants still had to get the job done.
The Niners came through well against the Saints, but turnovers did hurt New Orleans, none more so than that very first drive. having moved the ball 70+ yards in a steady drive, their RB turned over the ball within sight of the goal-line, but how unfortunate was that? Despite being a contact sport you very rarely see a player knocked out on contact and that's what happened - helmet to helmet and he was out cold before he hit the ground which was why he dropped the ball. But for that you would think the Saints would have got at least 3pts from that drive - and more likely a TD - but instead the Niners get the ball and the Saints get nothing. That incident seemed to set the tome for the match, which turned into a nip and tuck affair all the way to the end.
The 49ers have impressed me this year, especially that defence which teams find almost impossible to run against. I did feel, though, that this year might be a year too early for them, and I was looking forward to betting them for next year's Superbowl. But, they are in the NFC Championship game against a Giants team that doesn't have to run the ball. I was all for lumping on the Giants, because I feel this game would have suited them very well, they can handle the pressure, Manning is playing better now than at any stage of the season, and despite the historical disadvantage of going coast-to-coast for a play-off match I did feel they had a great chance to win this.
Until I heard about the weather...
It's to be wet, and windy. Deifinitely not the weather for a passing game, and with that I think might go the Giants best chance of a win. Don't get me wrong, Manning could play a blinder, but it would be a major tactical blunder to stick to a passing offensive and a wet ball in windy conditions is a clear disadavantage to a passing game. They'll need to do more running and that's right up San Fran's street. The defence held firm against the power of the Saint's offence, in better weather for passing.
The edge has transferred to the Niners, no doubt about that.
Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 1:04 pm Post subject: yes to win superbowl
i have better things to do than lie about bets my friend.for you to say that must mean its freash in your head and that you do that sort of thing..grow up..
EDITED BY MOD: Lets keep everything civil please as normal, just a heads up that we dont really want amounts of wagers posted as the rules have always stated. Apart from that lets keep the debate going.
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