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The T20 Big Bash
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Andy4Fingers
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Post Posted: Sat Nov 12, 2011 11:30 am     Post subject: The T20 Big Bash Reply with quote

Morning all. I've not been on here for a while but hope you're all well.

I've just been looking at the odds for The Big Bash, Australia's domestic T20 competition which starts on 16th December, and after a brief appraisal I think there's a decent bet to be had.
I like to assess the situation first and decide what I think reasonable odds should be, then see what the bookmakers are offering to see if there's value anywhere. That way my opinion won't be clouded by the bookmakers odds.
I would've expected Sydney Thunder to be around the 5/1 mark but they're as high as 7/1 with Hills.
With none of India's IPL stars or any Sri Lankan's involved in this tournament (as far as I'm aware) overseas talent is reasonably limited for the Aussie teams with a big emphasis on young, homegrown talent. While that makes it difficult for me to assess the majority of players in a team it should also mean the star players have more of an impact. To that end Sydney have perhaps Australia's brightest T20 star David Warner. A powerful hitter and excellent in the field his 140+ strike rate is testament to his hitting prowess, as is the fact he's the only player to score consecutive T20 tons - 135 not out against Chennai and 123 not out against Bangalore in this seasons champions league. He'll be ably supported in the batting by Phil Hughes, who at one time was the Aussies next big thing but who has waned slightly in the past year. He still has a T20 average of 37 at a 'Kallis-esque' strike rate of 111 which is ample proof of the talent he has. The bowling attack will be lead by another Aussie, Doug "The Rug" Bollinger. A star for Chennai his excellent economy rate and ability to pick up big wickets were a huge part of Chennai first winning and then retaining the IPL crown.
As for the overseas players Syndney have managed to sign the man they all wanted, Chris Gayle. The six hitting machine has some of the most impressive T20 batting stats around and scored 600+ runs in 12 matches during IPL4, while hitting more sixes than anyone else. His bowling was immense at times too.

As I said previously without knowing the young Aussie players it's difficult to assess totally, but presuming they're all around a similar standard it's the star players who'll win matches and Sydney Thunder have 3 or 4 of the best and at 7/1 I'm prepared to take a chance.
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t2010k
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Post Posted: Sat Nov 12, 2011 1:31 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

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fairfranco
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Post Posted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 11:02 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

Will have a look at this a bit nearer the time but Sydney certainly have the makings of a good team with Warner and Gayle in there.


I see they've changed the format to City team's rather than the previous set up of State teams. A bit confusing!
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Andy4Fingers
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Post Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:02 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

Only a day or so now til the tourney starts and I fancy Sydney Thunder just as much as I did when posting above. It looks like Hughes will be dropped from the Aussie test side so he should be available for all the Big Bash games and though his record for the national side would suggest otherwise he is a quality cricketer at domestic level. Unfortunately Warner made a highly impressive 123 not out for the Aussies in their loss to New Zealand so instead of him and Hughes missing out for the returning Watson and Marsh as expected he may well have done enough to keep his international place meaning he'll miss a couple of Thunder games. There may be no need to worry though as if Chris Gayle can continue with his T20 form, which saw him average 53.2 in his last 5 matches in the Zimababwe T20 tournament, the Thunder shouldn't be short of firepower.
Based on his form and the fact that Sydney will be playing 4 of their 7 group matches at the ANZ stadium which has a short boundary I'm tipping Chris Gayle @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes) to be top tournament runscorer. His T20 averages and records are streets ahead of the competition and if he can continue his form and make use of the short boundary he'll be very hard to stop.
Based on the same information I'm also tipping Sydney Thunder to score the most team sixes @ 3/1 (cricketbetlive). Warner, Gayle, Hughes, Dunk and Smith are all more than capable of clearing the ropes and the Thunder's batting look incredibly strong on paper.
I also fancy a small stakes bet on William Hills offer of six sixes to be scored in one over at anytime in the tournament @ 100/1. A short boundary with Chris Gayle looks an exciting prospect, but this gives all the other hitters like Afridi and Pollard a chance to do it too, and I think the odds are just too big.
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Andy4Fingers
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Post Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2011 7:26 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

Phil Hughes has pulled out of the Big Bash entirley citing the need to work on his technique for the longer formats of the game. Not the best news for Thunder backers but not the worst either.
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fairfranco
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Post Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2011 8:50 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

don't really rate hughes too much anyway.

give openers gayle and warner 10 overs together and they'll have the opposition begging for mercy!

doug "the rug" bollinger is a fine T20 bowler and while Fidel Edwards doesn't play T20 for his country all that often I can see that he could do very well....although I do see him leaking runs.
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manafana
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Post Posted: Thu Dec 15, 2011 10:37 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

like dougie the piece bollinger to be top bowler 16/1

any thoughts on 2moros game?
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Andy4Fingers
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Post Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2011 3:08 pm     Post subject: Reply with quote

I think fox sports have got the tv rights GS but other than going online or getting a huge satellite in the garden I don't know how you'd watch their channel. Quite a few bookmakers have a live stream of the games though. I know Betfair, bet365 and William Hill do.
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Andy4Fingers
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Post Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2011 12:26 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

There's seems to be a decent bit of value available on the top team batsman with William Hill - Luke Wright to be top Melbourne Stars batsman @ 16/1 (William Hill)
Along with Jade Dernbach he's one of two overseas signings so presumably he'll be given game time, and while his T20 average of just over 23 won't set the world on fire hes scored a 72, 71 and 81 not out in his last 8 T20 innings so he's capable of hitting the big scores.
Also his competition at Melbourne isn't exactly amazing with Dave Hussey 34 years old and counting (albeit still showing flashes of the talent thats made him a cricketing legend) and Voges and White both out of sorts (Voges has only passed 45 twice in his last 12 innings and Cameron White doesn't seem to have produced a meaningful innings for months).
At 16/1 it seems worthwhile, especially considering its as low as 9/2 with Stan James.
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t2010k
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Post Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2011 7:30 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

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gecko6
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Post Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2011 10:00 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

all 8 teams are above 5 and below 10 on Betfair so take yer pick!

adelaide strikers may go well but not too sure about their bowling as a lot of spinners inlcuded - daniel harris at 21 Betfair for top bat could be worth a glance (gayle went cheaply tonight and is very short in the market despite his phenomenal ability)

melbo stars will probably be missing siddle/pattinson a fair bit so that tempers enthusiasm for them

altho they currently are looking quite good v thunder
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t2010k
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Post Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 7:25 am     Post subject: Reply with quote

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