South Africa v West Indies-1st Test

findfreelay

Hello,
South Africa 1.42 to win 1st Test at Betfair !!!!
Too short may be because of West Indies performance in a practice match.
Anyway i think it is a great opportunity and laid South Africa and if price shorten before start may consider more Lay.
All the best.
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thetitan · Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2007 1:46 pm Post subject:

Hi Dip, I agree it is perhaps too short, but all the same, having watched the SA vs NZ test series closely, I can't see anything other than an SA whitewash here.

This will be a battle of the pace bowlers - Taylor and Edwards for WI, Steyn and Ntini for SA (amongst others).

Toss will have a huge impact on the odds, in SA the pitches always have something for the seam bowlers on day one. I remember that whenever NZ won the toss in the recent series and bowled first, they let the pitch do the work and SA drifted to over evens on the first day.

So I think that if WI bowl first, Lay SA/back WI. If SA bowl first, back SA, as I think 1.4 will be the first stop on the train to 1.01 town! Laughing

Draw shouldn't be an issue here as WI don't have good enough batting to survive under pressure, and SA pitches usually yield results.

findfreelay · Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2007 6:48 pm Post subject:

Hi Titan,
Big question is in which situations SA price will drift on day one also what will be the other selections price at that time?

I think answer is:
(A)Prematch: SA bat first after toss or bad weather forecast (Draw down and WI up in first and down in later).
(B)Inplay:
1.SA bat first and early wickets (Draw up and WI down).
2.West Indies bat first and have good start (Draw and WI down).
3.Anyone bat first but bad weather forecast (Draw down and WI up).
4.SA bat first and don't lose early wickets but have slow start (Draw down and WI up).This is the most important point IMO and frankly it is stopping me to back WI at current price.
So from free Lay point of view in which i always consider maximum downside possible in next 1 hr. or 10 overs,it is very low if SA bat first and 30% maximum if WI bat first and collapse in start like 50/4 in 15 overs.
Also we may have option after toss to bail out at 1.38 if WI bat first with minimum loss and then consider to Lay SA in 1.2x after wickets or back 1.8+ after good start.
..............
WI at 14.0 currently a good trading opportunity if SA bat first but if SA start well like 65/0 in 15 overs then we may see WI 20+ very soon like England price drifts after good start by Sri Lanka in recent series.
So i think safest is to Lay SA prematch.
ROI expected +50% if SA bat first and -10% if WI bat first.
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thetitan · Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2007 8:09 pm Post subject:

excellent post, seems like a very good strategy to me. Win

thetitan · Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2007 3:05 pm Post subject:

series bets:

SA on the -1.5 handicap - 10pts @ 1.36

top SA bat - 8pts Kallis @ 2.75

top WI bat - 5pts Chanderpaul @ 2.75

top SA wicket-taker - 6pts Steyn @ 2.1

top WI wicket taker - 1.5pts Taylor @ 2.87

multiples -

5pts on 3 doubles on Kallis, Chanderpaul, Steyn

5pts on one treble @ 15/1 (same as above)

1st test bets:

dutch Kallis and Steyn man of the match - 8pts @ 4.24 (will probably do this one for every match, i'm sure it will give a positive return at level stakes)

Kallis to score more runs than Graeme Smith in the test - 10pts @ 1.72

Some of these stakes may seem a bit wreckless but I've researched everything thoroughly, this will be a great way to kick-start the New Year
Win

findfreelay · Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 9:12 am Post subject:

Hello everyone,
SA won the toss and elected to bowl first.
Current score is West Indies 46/0 in 8 overs.
Odds are SA 1.67 as favourites.
Good drift in SA odds because of the combination of bad weather forecast and good start by WI.
It looks to me another weather effected match,so i am very cautious.
My plan is small back of SA at 1.8x if comes before lunch.
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thetitan · Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 9:24 am Post subject:

Hi Dip, great call on the SA Lay @ 1.4, I'm now staggering the re-back of them as WI could lose a wicket anytime.

This will be similar to the SA vs NZ test series...the SA bowlers were often wayward/unlucky in one session, then brilliant in the next session. I remember thinking to myself at various points in that series when SA were struggling 'will they win this?'

I've also taken a small back of WI at 8.2 with a view to a quick trade although i've kept your thoughts about the underdog drifting in mind.

findfreelay · Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 9:40 am Post subject:

Well done Titan,
imo WI may not shorten below 4.5 till they bat.
Do you have any weather news from good source,then please let me know?
Thanks in advance.
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thetitan · Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 9:53 am Post subject:

ooh after the SL match i never want to speak about the weather again! can only go from what i've seen on the various sites, but it looks like a chance of rain in the morning, and showers throughout the test match.

but from what I know, SA weather at this time of year isn't usually bad enough to reduce the length of a match. I think the draw is pretty low here but i dont want to be a layer right now.

now 2 quick wickets, classic west indies collapso!

findfreelay · Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 10:03 am Post subject:

WI 107/2 two quick wickets and huge market reaction.
Laying SA in 1.6x with back plan at 1.8x (Because of weather forecast and pitch behaviour so far)
.............
By the way West Indies total runs under 320@evens at StanJames.com looks to me interesting.
Although not going for it or recommending. Check these to know mood of the market.
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Like inplay cricket trading and my site is http://tradeoncricket.com

thetitan · Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 10:46 am Post subject:

i took a small punt on under 370 when Gayle and Ganga were going well. Now the odds are 1.76, I'm evening out my book slightly, I think one of these batsmen will get out pretty soon. Then I think I'll Lay SA once Chanderpaul comes in, he's very reliable but I'll look to back 2+ on SA.

I'll also keep an eye on the draw, there have been big movements in the one session so far.

I'm really pleased with that session, good watching and brilliant trading. Thanks for the help, Dip. Let's hope the next two sessions are equally good.

thetitan · Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 12:42 pm Post subject:

not much happening now, SA trading against the draw, I've piled into the draw at 3's now that Shiv is in, they're batting very slowly but Samuels is a liability as always.

173/3 after about 50 overs, little in it for the pacers although I would have expected them to take wickets regardless.