Argentina v South Africa

[nors]

I can see 11/4 for the Argentinians which may be not great value was hoping for 3/1+ but i am getting less and less impressed with South Africa and can see a France v Argentina final.

As a matter of fact 11/4 looks in danger as most of the other firms look 9/4 5/2, any one got any advice as i have been doing well in the RWC even with my admitted limited knowledge of the oval ball.

[brewster39]

11/4 is a good price, Argentina are doing extremely well and somewhat the dark horse this tourney.
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brewsty39

[topnotch]

i don't want to influence your betting, but although i agree the 11/4 looks big i don't think the boks will throw this away. if scotland had not made school boy errors they could well have won the quarter final against the argies. fiji showed that expanding and running, scoring tries is the key to beating anyone however argentina do not have that expertise of the islanders in their locker. i don't think argentina have the power in the pack to outmuscle to boks, neither do they have the running game that fiji utilised. fiji made south africa wake up with massive alarm bells, and this may show on sunday. my bookie gave me boks -7 and i took it with vigour.

then again i expected both new zealand and the wobblies to win last week good luck.
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top rugby tipster april 2007

[brewster39]

I reckon the key at this stage, and the difference to those who dont have them - is it have a strong organised defence. Most of these schoolboy errors you are talking about topnotch are silly mistakes made at the back, this is where teams lose games
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brewsty39

[zagreb]

The power of the Sth African forwards i believe holds the key to this game. Although Argentina themselves have a powerful pack in a head to head i would give the edge to the Sth Africans.

Also Habana will be a constant threat and hopefully Percy Montgomery will have got a bit more consistancy into his kicking before kick off to see them reach the final.

As for the England v. France semi i cannot split the two teams, both sides have been disappointing but more was expected of France on home turf and i have a feeling that they may choke come the day.

I believe England hit an all time low after the Sth Africa group game and have come out stronger as a result and if i was forced to name a winner i`d say them as they will probably start as underdogs and that will favour them as some of the pressure will be off.

[topnotch]

brewster, the silly mistakes i was referring to in the scotland game were nervous handling errors the scots displayed in ATTACK, choosing the wrong option like kicking too early etc. granted they switched off at the back too but their main problem was not looking like scoring tries. i said in another thread the boks look the most well balanced side, good defence and the ability to score tries from anywhere on their day, rather than rely on penalties for points. i don't think the argies can match them on all fronts.
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top rugby tipster april 2007

[brewster39]

Fair point, but the point I was also trying to make was it is harder for the defences at these closing stages in the tournament, so for me this is where teams capitalise
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brewsty39

[manafana]

Rugby World Cup 2007 Semi-Final

Weather: Mild, light winds.

South Africa v Argentina

This game pits two unbeaten sides against each other for a place in the final. South Africa have history in the tournament haven won in 1995 at home. But I am sure they would love to get a win on European Soil after some of the goings on of 95. These two have never played each other in a World Cup match, but South Africa have won all 11 of their meetings, but then again never have the pumas been so strong.
The Pumas technically have home advantage here, most of their players play in France and they have always said they have been feeling right at home during the competition. Confidence is high and bar a blimp against the Scots they have looked a World Cup winning side. South Africa are also buoyant. The hammering of England saw them at their best, but when fielding weakened side the looked vulnerable. But today’s side is their strongest.
Up front its going to be one hell of a battle between some good players. The Pumas could have an advantage in the front row. Smit is at his peak at hooker but his two props are probably south Africa’s key weakness. Ledesma is solid at hooker and he’ll be up for matching smit who’s open play is another strength of his. In the 2nd Row South Africa are among the strongest Botha and Matfield are excellent line out options and are pretty mobile and have good hands. The Pumas 2nd row is hardly the best but they do scrumage very well and they do hold their own at lineout time despite limited options. The back row looks a pretty interesting area, pumas back row constantly pull out impressive performances. Longo has been very impressive and his 6 and 7 have been playing above themselves. But in Burger Smith and Rossouw they meet probably the most in form back row in rugby currently. Burger when putting his mind to it can hit well behind the game and works well with his number 8. This could be a key area that South Africa could get one over on the Pumas
The half-back pairings will be key with kicking at the right time essential to keeping your team in the game. Pumas could get on over here. James looks a weakness for the Africans hes not the best kicker and sometimes misjudges the right decisions when under pressure. In De Preez he has the most in form scrum half this world cup, an excellent passer who thinks quick and can vary his style to keep defenses guessing he could be key to keeping James pressure free. Pumas combo of Pichot and Herandez has been among the strongest this world cup. Pichot although not the best passer controls the game, motivates his team will cleverly getting the referee on his side. Herandez has a nice boot on him and generally picks his options well, his defense has held up well so far, and hes an excellent runner of the ball if given space.
In the back line South Africa hold an advantage over the pumas who are much less adventurous. Those that say Argentina don’t use their backs would be wrong they use it when the time is right and rarely try to force things. In the centre Fourire and Steyn work well together, Fourire is probably the stronger of the two in the midfield and hes a dangerous attacking option. Argentina have a solid partnership in the middle with the two contepomi’s, Felipo is an excellent 1st Centre who tackles well provides kicking cover for his out half and has lovely hands and runs some lovely angles. His brother Manuel is less mobile and skilful and can be exploited as the weak point in the pumas defense and up against fourire could struggle. In the back three it’s a bit mixed. South Africa have the solid Montgomery who plays a solid kicking game and is solid all rounder who seems ageless. South Africas big danger is habana if he can get the ball in space. Pumas should be tactical ready to cope but if things get loose he could be a big danger. Pietersen on the other wing looks a weakness most his trys have been run ins and he rarely break tackles and his defense is poor. Pumas have Corletto a good full-back good under the high ball, never the best kicker but he is dangerous coming into the line and runs dangerous lines. On the wing Borges and Agulla are far from exciting but they are solid and can finish things when they get the chance.
On the bench SOuth Africa hold an advantage with much the stronger players, pienarr is one to watch if put on for pietersen on the wing.

Recommendations:
South Africa 6-15pts
Habana 1st Tryscorer
1st Scoring Play SA penalty
Under 38.5
Pumas Yellow Card