6 Nations 2012

nors · Posted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 12:18 pm Post subject:

+12 for Scotland is around1/1, i think we may see further improvemnt from the Scots and although i think Wales will win it could be tighter maybe 6-7-8-9 point difference.
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sandymc · Group 2 Class Joined: 28 Dec 2009 Posts: 153

weather is a bit milder than yesterday-around 7 degrees

deswalker · Posted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 1:17 pm Post subject:

I do think that Scotland can definitely play better than last week, but I would argue on the fact that they have tightened up defensively. It's my impression that they are a quite small step from being a very good attacking side and their backs look to have real potential. However, Wales are an equally small step from being the best side in the world at the moment (arguably) their performances at the world cup were no fluke, and I just can't see Scotland handling them. They made so many mistakes last week, so many, and Wales won't be as wasteful as England.

Should be a good match whatever! Win

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sandymc · Group 2 Class Joined: 28 Dec 2009 Posts: 153

further improvement nors? What does that mean? You are implying that they improved last week-i saw an abject performance with not much cohesion?!

deswalker · Posted: Sun Feb 12, 2012 8:54 pm Post subject:

Well that was abject! 3-3 at half time no bloody use whatsoever for me even if Wales did end up beating the handicap as I suspected they might. It was a lot tighter than the score suggested though, really good match with the sin bins making the big difference.

Could they give France something to think about in 2 weeks at Murrayfield? Confused

By the way sandy, great shout this...

Onlyfoolsbackhorses · Listed Class Joined: 13 Feb 2012 Posts: 47

I like the Spreads this weekend, I'm fairly confident of a double. If I was forced at gunpoint to put a bet on the Ireland game it would be italy+15 with Paddy Power. But Being an Irish man I would hate to be unhappy if Ireland pulled a great performance out of the bag!

Scotland look very unimaginative and France looked dangerous against Italy, as the old question about France goes, it depends which french team will turn up but I think it will be one that will cover a 6 point spread easily.

England don't look too bad but if it's a lively and intense encounter I think Wales will clinch the triple crown in Twickenham and set themselves up for the grand slam. Confident they will do so by more than 5 but i'll take the 2 point spread.

So Double,
Wales -2 vs England @10/11 PaddyPower.com
France -6 vs Scotland same odds same place

What does everyone think, anywhere for shorter spreads or better value?

deswalker · Posted: Tue Feb 14, 2012 12:16 am Post subject:

Going to wait until closer to the time but I would think that England will struggle to contain Wales, unless they start to mesh better than they have up to now. You cannot rely on Charlie bloody Hodgson getting another charge down. Laughing

Scotland are underestimated and I would definitely not write them off, even against the French. But as I say, I'll wait until a decent weather forecast which may be a pointer to the type of scores to expect.

Win

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deswalker · Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:24 am Post subject:

Really looking forward to this weekends action and I am keen on Wales on the handicap simply from a value point of view. They are 4/6 to win at Twickers, but Evens for -3?!

If these two teams play to form in perfect conditions it will be a destruction job by Wales, venue notwithstanding, so a -3 cushion doesn't look enough protection for England to me.

Any thoughts? Confused

I am also tempted by Ireland on the handicaps against Italy where I would be more tempted by 10/11 about -14 than Evens about -15. This is simply because if the difference is 2 converted tries, which isn't beyond the realms of fantasy, its money back.

Win

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Micko70 · Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:30 am Post subject:

I agree with Wales, i think they can probably win by at least 6-8 points.

England have been terrible since all the way back to the World Cup and Wales will play against England's weakness's.

-14 or -15 is a bit wary for me, like you say it's 2 converted tries, but if neither try is converted then they have to score another try, i think the bookies have called this pretty much spot on and it's a tough call, i am slightly tempted to go for Ireland as they need a big win for a confidence boost and they are at home

deswalker · Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:47 am Post subject:

I don't know Micko. First, they are at home and secondly, that performance against Wales was very, very good. If it wasn't for the fact that the match venues this year are against them I think they would be serious contenders still for the championship (despite that first loss).

I can see them racking up a cricket score against Italy. Confused

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jaydubs · At Stud Joined: 09 Mar 2008 Posts: 4460

I went against England in the first 2 matches and I think they were lucky to win both but at home they are a different beast.

I do think England are great value to beat Wales. No doubt Wales have the potential to play well..... but they were level at HT v Scotland at home and should have been beaten by Ireland but for a very poor ref decision at the final whistle.

England have now won at 2 grounds where they could so easily have been beaten and against 2 sides who were never going to play expansive Rugby. Back at Twickers and with some players back they look stronger. I like the way Lancaster is taking them and with the selection of Farrell at 10 he has two big lads at 12 and 13 to tackle the Welsh threat and create problems themselves. They are still only a young team just starting to play together and we could see them freeze a little but I do fancy them to win this by 5-10. I won't be disappointed if England lose as we are heading the right way but Twickenham stats v Wales tell a story

1994 England 15 Wales 8
1996 England 23 Wales 15
1998 England 60 Wales 26
2000 England 46 Wales 12
2002 England 50 Wales 10
2004 England 31 Wales 21
2006 England 47 Wales 13
2007 England 62 Wales 5 Warm up
2008 England 19 Wales 26
2010 England 30 Wales 17

England did beat Wales at the Millenium last year as well.

Suppose this is all about opinions as to whether you think England were poor v Scotland and Italy or that they played to a game plan to win in two difficult places and if they will be different at home.

deswalker · Posted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 12:47 pm Post subject:

Interesting points jaydubs. I do think that England were poor against Scotland and Italy, but I have more hope for the future of this team than most. I think that as long as they continue bringing through the younger players they will build a good foundation for the future.

I just can't see them bringing it together this quickly and home advantage, whilst important, probably won't be enough to sway the balance in my book.

Confused

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