Rugby union selections

[machine]

PhilCookson
Group 3 Class
not trying to tell you how to bet mate,but if 10 team accies == 1x10 accymand 10x9 accys,i think that 1x 12 accy = and 12 x 11 team accys,my theory which i have checked on a 10 x accy,is if 12 are up you get nearly as much as the 12xstraight accy,but in your case would get decent payout for the 11 team accy back up..on the 10 teams i reduce the stake per line,and only put slightly more on in total stake.worth checking out mate. .i would be sick to be that close

[PhilCookson]

Each weekend I have a small stakes accumulator, along with many other bets, just for interest, often comes in but never with 12 teams before, but 8 had before.

[jaydubs]

Well Monkey I am going with you on one and against you on the other ... but then again i am not in great form so it might be best to Lay both of my predictions....

Sale v Sarries - Sarries @2.16

Sale did win the battle v Worcester last week but it was full of basic handling errors and not great quality. They did however get a win, however workamanlike it was and that will take a bit of pressure off tonight. Sarries on the other hand competed in probably the best game of rugby I have seen this year in the mud at Kingsholm and only going down by a point. There was some fantastic handling and running rugby on show and i think Sarries have turned the corner on their negative style of play that has seen them drop down the league and have decided to throw caution to the wind. With the drying pitch tonight Sale will not be able to slow the ball down and get Hodgson to dictate the game with his tactical kicking. This should play into a quicker offloading game that Sarries want to play. That said Saracens will probably play a bit more controlled rugby this week with Marshall and Houggard in at 9 and 10 but with Jackson and De Kock on the bench they can change the tempo very quickly. The set pieces will be important and Aguero back in will shore up the scrum that struggled against Gloucester, however Sale are not known for their big pack and it will be easier than the pummeling they took on Saturday. The line out is interesting as Saracens picked quite a lot of ball from Gloucester last week and with Jones and Schofield (not renknowed as dynamic jumpers) in the 2nd row for Sale Briggs will have to be very accurate to secure ball. I think this will be tight and probably within 5-10 but if Saracens play like they have earlier on in the season on the harder grounds they should be able to pile more worry on Sale while trying to secure a place in the top 4, something that will not be easy with trips to Leicester and Northampton in the last 2 weeks.

Other one on the H Cup thread

[jaydubs]

A new week and some trickier ones


first up for me is

Bath v Sale - Sale +15 @1.91

This may be one to take in play. I think with the side that Bath have out they mean business and I can see them dominating early on as 5 pts is a must for them if they harbour the faint hopes of the top 4. They will want to get that try bonus as soon as possible and get players off the park rested for the game on Tuesday night with Northampton. Sale will know this and be looking to stay in contention through the boot of Hodgson. Sale will probably target 1 or possibly 2 points from this match by at last getting back to within 7 or more unlikely score 4 tries as their cup final is next week v Newcastle at home. 16 pts looks too big on the h'cp considering Bath will be looking to rest players from 60 mins onwards once they get up by a few points.

There are no markets yet I can see but if the match totals are around the 40 mark I really fancy them going well over that.

No markets again for Northampton v Gloucester and Sarries v Quins but I fancy both of these to be over 40pts as well.

[welshie1]

Magners League for me, tips for both of the games tonight

Ospreys +7.5 v Leinster @ 1.8

Its been a very tough but very good week in terms of performance levels for the Ospreys and I think they have one more big performance left in them. They were very unlucky against Biarritz to lose by a point but responded brilliantly on Tuesday night to beat Ulster 38-27, picking up a four try bonus point as well. Its hard to play the amount of games they have done in this short space of time but they do have the squad to do so and they have named a very good side for this one. Leinster have rested most of their big name players but like the Ospreys have named a team full of internationals. But they were lucky to beat Clermont last week in my opinion because the two Clermont kickers had absolute shockers. They have been riding their luck of late, they produced a solid performance to beat Munster in their last league game but that was just by a point, and Connacht nearly got a draw against them a few weeks back but lost 17-14. The Ospreys just look like they are in form at the moment and I can see them being up for the challenge at the RDS.

Glasgow -9.5 v Ulster @ 1.9

Ulster are under real pressure from improving Connacht now after they suffered a fourth straight defeat against the Ospreys on Tuesday night. They defended poorly for most of the game and other than one Dainelli try, they didnt look like any kind of attacking threat. Ian Humphreys does return at 10 instead of the more solid kicking game of Niall OConnor and that should help them in terms of attacking. But Ive watched a few of their displays of late and they have looked poor and theyve played badly at home which isnt normal of Ulster, who did beat Stade Francais at home in the Heineken Cup pools. Glasgow are just a point off the playoffs and they have a good enough side to get a bonus point win here in my opinion. Theyve been solid at home this season and have a very reliable goal kicker in Dan Parks. His role at #10 gives them a great platform and with the Killer Bs Brown. Barclay and Beattie reunited in the back row, Glasgow look very strong and should beat a very gun-shy Ulster outfit.
_________________
Football and Boxing expert.

[padknightdy]

what are peoples thoughts on Bath v Northampton?

i'm a Bath fan and would normally back them for the win but a +12 handicap looks quite big and a huge factor for me is that Butch James isn't playing tomorrow night.

Looking at the Saints team their backs look pretty strong individually (although no Ashton and Foden) and i don't know enough about their forwards to make a comment, but they are definitely playing a weakened team.

Bath is basically their first team, minus Banahan and James...which in truth is a pretty significantly different proposition....!

Very much undecided, i also can't remember the last time we played 2 games so close together. Its probably one to stay away from for me but would be interested in other peoples takes on it.

edit: i've talked myself round think i'm going to put a little bit on Bath -12... hahah

[padknightdy]

scrap that! i'm going for Bath -6 at half time. (10/11) I think they have more of a chance of starting well than ending well particularly given our bench.

[machine]

padknightdy
Group 3 Class

all i can say as a neutral onlooker,dont have bet till jaydubs comes on he has got me interested in rugby betting since i came across this and other related threads. .he knows the business.

[jaydubs]

That's a nice compliment machine thank you but please don't follow blindly. I like everyone else on here have very bad decisions/runs where nothing goes right.

padknightdy,

Northampton are definitely under strength tonight no Ashton or Foden, their front row is 2nd string although Mujati does get his fair share of starts. Both Tongahuiha and Murray are on the bench though. Sharman has had problems with his line out throwing this year and is possibly 3rd string now to Andy Long and Dylan Hartley. 2nd rows Kruger and Lawes are both missing (kruger on the bench) but Fernandez-Lobbe is certainly no mug. In the back row their best player, IMO, Dowson is out and Roger Wilson is on the bench. All in all they have a weakened side out but players that have come in are no mugs Hopley and Easter have been playing for a few seasons off the bench in the back row, Mujati and Dreyer are only 2nd string due to the form of Tongahuiha and Murray and although they have lost their pace at the back Everitt is a high percentage place kicker and decent out of hand too.

Not one for me from a betting perspective as both need a win and Northampton have a scarily looking bench to bring on. If Bath score a few and take their foot off the pedal they could get either back within the 12 or even get close.

If I had to bet I would probably go under 48 pts but will not be playing tonight as better opportunities will come up this weekend

[padknightdy]

as i said, for similar reasons as your thinking, i'm going for Bath -6 at half time. Northampton's bench looks scary, and they have a weakened team out. Bath conversely have a nearly full strength team and a weak bench.

Half time lead of more than 6 @ 10/11 for me. Had that for the Bath v Sale game as well and they were good for it.

Good luck everyone.

[machine]

jaydubs
Triple Crown Winner

dont follow blindly.im the draw man when it is put up as close,and only for small stakes till comfortable.

[jaydubs]

it was not for you machine I know you are sensible and play the draws.. It is just in case any new readers were looking in and took your words literally. bad grammar from me

Pad, after looking at the game again I have followed you in with the -6 first half score.