Heineken Cup

[jaydubs]

Right lets get this thread started with the first matches due to take place on Friday night.

I think it is a little difficult to choose anyone at the moment because of the Lions a lot of teams have not played their best sides yet. For example Cardiff who were strong last year have looked atrocious this year (none more so than the defeat at the weekend to Glasgow) losing 4 from 5 so far but I expect them to be better come the weekend.

I am sure the usual suspects will be around and about again come May with possibly more French clubs succeeding this year due to the influx of English players who moved because of the salary cap.

1 bet I do fancy at the moment (and probably should not take becuase it involves Gloucester) is Biarritz topping the group with Gloucester, Glasgow and Newport. All of these are strong at home and don't lose many but the power of Biarritz should be able to get results across the water in Scotland and Wales and look good at 2.36 on Betfair in what is probably going to be a 2 horse race between them and Gloucester who have been very very poor so far this season and are only a couple of injuries away from not having much left apart from youngsters in the back line.

Look forward to some good discussion

[swashbuckler]

Hi Jaydubs

I like Biarittz as well but at the same time they are one of the most unreliable Rugby Teams that I have ever had the misfortune to back and I still haven't forgot how they lost at home to Cardiff last year after dominating possession They always flatter to deceive, a bit like Stade Francais but I am prepared to give Biarittz another chance this year as they are playing well in their domestic league. I really like Leinster this year. I know it is extremey hard to regain a Trophy after winning it for the first time but Leinster have a quality squad with some extremely good young players coming through and they didn't half do a job on Munster last week and when you throw in that their coach Michael Cheika will be leaving to go back to Australia after this season I would expect the Leinster players to give their all for Cheika to go out on a high. I fully expect Leinster to beat London Irish this weekend in what should be a cracker of a game. Will try to add some more thoughts before the weekend
Best Of Luck

[jaydubs]

Swash,

Biarritz have burnt me on many an occasion as well but someone has to win that group. If they win that fist game in Glasgow they could be well on the way as Gloucester away is week 5 or them. Feel a little bit better after they beat Perpignan convincingly on Saturday. If it stays dry for a few weeks their pacey back row and dangerous backs could get a maximum 10 pts on the board for them.

I was going to mention Leinster as they should have an easy-ish passage through but with 2 or 3 real groups of death if they finish as one of the top 2 qualifiers they may get a nasty match at home in the quarters.

They do look very strong but can't help feeling O Driscoll is so important to them and if he is out for a few weeks although looking through their side this should not be the case.

Really looking forward to the competition and will look through the weekends matches later on.

[cymroambyth]

hi
The best competition in the world on the horizon again.
Just read your comment on biarritz group and you have them as favourites with gloucester coming behind them. To tell you the truth I believe that glasgow have pretty good chance of topping this group. They have been playing decent rugby this season and dan parks run everygame he plays in at the moment from fly half. I believe they got excellent chance of upsetting biarritz this weekend more so if the weather in glasgow is as forecasted and if they gain momentum they will be very difficult to beat especially if thom evans find form again.
Another tip is ospreys, they played some awsome rugby at time v edinburgh this weekend and i tip them to beat tigers at welford road this weekend and i believe they will be +4 or +6 on handicap. Jerry collins rested last weekend and he will be fresh this week and raring to go this weekend to prove his worth. Ospreys by 4 i say.
This year this should be awsome thread. keep up the good post every1 and thanks jaydubs for opening it

[marky233]

Hi guys,

Been looking around the top try scorer markets for the Heineken Cup, but cant seem to find odds for Napolioni Nalaga Clermonts Fijian winger. He has been playing really well so far this season with Clermont even moving Aurelien Rougerie to center to accommodate him. And with Clermont having Viadana and a misfiring Ospreys and Leicester in the group could be a good bet. But as i said cant seem to find him any help would be great.

Cheers mark........

[jaydubs]

Cymra,

I had a look at Glasgow and I think Glasgow's and Newport's games will decide the group but I just can't see Glasgow being consistent enough through out the 6 games. They sure are a danger to any side though and do have some talent in amongst. With Cusiter back and Dan Parks at 10 and also the Evans' they can beat anyone on their day (speaking from my pocket I hope it is not week 1).

Marky,

Paddy Power have him at 14's
Just asked SkyBet they will be putting it up in the morning as they have aist but not with him on it

Just looking at maybe a bit of dutching in the European shield but re read the rules and was shocked to find out it is like the champions league now. the 3rd 4th and 5th ranked runners up in the Heiny Cup will now go in to the shield as 6th 7th and 8th ranked teams ... No point in having a bet as Wasps/Saracens or whoever ranked 1 may get Leicester/Munster/Ospreys/Stade or someone nasty like that ..

[marky233]

Cheers Jaydubs, could have sworn i looked on Ppower this morning must be losing it lol.

AH well nevermind noticed that SkyBet hadn't put him so got a little excited and thought they had missed him and i could have got some nice odds, looks like he is joint fav at the mo, may still have a little play though, cant see why shane or doug Howlett are up there though apart from reputation, neither of them have seen ball from their teams so far.

[munster76]

I will be putting my few Euro on a French team at 11/8 I think, to win it this season as the carrot of a virtual home venue for the final is a very live one this time around and they have broke the bank to sign all the English boyos who have a point to prove also.

[jaydubs]

Anyone fancy anything tonight ?

Could make a case for Ulster at their beloved Ravenhill against a misfiring Bath tonight but IMO best left alone even though I do think Ulster will win.

Gloucester have a strong pack out (I would say the 1st choice in every position) but the backs have been hit by injuries. Both Tindall and Sapulo are out and the Dutch born Kiwi Molenaar who signed from Nottingham and Simpson-Daniel make up the centre partnership. Quite how much these have played together and will gel is a mystery but there could be big holes in the midfield if they aren't on the same page. That said Molenaar was the outstanding player at Nottingham and is a big guy that can break defences. Charlie Sharples starts on the wing but the bench is all youngsters and a couple more injuries could see Gloucester really stretched. Newport apparently are also struggling with injuries to Adam Jones, Gethin Robinson and Matthew Watkins (recent returnee from Gloucester). I would say Gloucester will win this but with just an injury away from a major re shuffle I could not predict the spread so will leave this alone.

Lastly London Irish have been playing very well so far and Leinster's win over Munster last week sees them on form so with it being week 1 and both likely to feel each other out I couldn't say with any certainty that this would be a win for Leinster with more than 7 although with the players they have it could well be 20..

Really tough matches to call to start with and i think I will watch them with a beer this week..

had a look at the challenge cup as well but how do you call the matches when the French clubs don't take it seriously but Montpellier still came over last night (with a youth and 2nd side) and beat Worcester??
Will leave this till an Italian team is at home v a French team and we may get some good odds.

If you do play tonight be lucky

[cymroambyth]

dear all
thank god heineken cup back again.Lot off difficult matches to predict this weekend. My first tip is 4 brive to beat a very poor scarlets side. They got a thumping last week in ulster and played with the attitude to run the balll at every oppertunity. i believe this is mainly down to youth and inexperienced players. And they play the game by saying to the oppenents you score 3 tries and we'll score 4 but they will become unstuck this weekend against a very hard working physical side that is brive. They ground at stadiwm y scarlets is in tip top condition and this will suit brive especially with noon runnig straigh and strong in the centres and making spaces 4 goode to control the game from 10. brive +5 looks to me like one of bets of the year. All in.
Another massive game 4 the weekend is tigers v ospreys. I think that the bookies have got it wrong ospreys +4 (which i predicted earlier post this week lolololol. Leicster have been struggling for form this season and not scored many tries. Ospreys looked back to something like their best last week v edinburugh and week before in second half v glasgow. With COLLINS now making up the back row with jones and hollah you got to fancy them to challenge very strongl at the brekdown and turn numerous balls over. (hollah one of best around on the floor). I will go with them +4 but also i will go with then in outirght market at 6/4 365.
Next good bet is, although it hurts to say, is harlequins to beat cardiff blues. Blues been playing quite frankly rubbish this season and i believe young won't be there for much longer. The main reason for me to go with quins is the blues pitch is in top notch condition at the moment and will suit the quins down to the ground with their running game. Although with monye missing they miss bit of pace i believe they will still be to strong 4 poor blues outfit. And talikng of poor norton-knight would struggle to control an unders 11's game at the moment not to mention a top class rugby game. Worse signing ever seen on british isle. Harlequins +7 to good to miss.
Lastly get the cash in this weekend by backing leeds to beat an out of sorts and tired saints side 2morrow. Wigan smashed what little life was left in saints last week and leeds 100% here. Saints may stay with them till first half of second half but last 20 rhinos will run away with it with superior pace in their back line. LEEDS 4/7 a must. I will be also having a little flutter on the little man, rob burrow, to get the man of the match trophy. He is a player for the big games and i belive he will show his class 2morrow. I will also have little saver on peacock in this market.
anyway hope you enjoyed the read
can't wait for it all 2 kick off
take care
cymroambyth

[jaydubs]

Gonna swerve the Cardiff game today as everything tells me Cardiff but as Cymro mentioned their form is shocking. I read an article where the players were saying that the new ground did not feel like home for them even though they had tried to make the dressing rooms like like the old arms park. They have already lost to Glasgow and Edinburgh there and only just squeezed past Llanelli but looking at the sides you would want to be on Cardiff. Harlequins are without probably their 3 best players in Monye, Care and Easter who are all out because of the EPS agreement. The lineout looked woeful at times last week as well with injuries to others they don't have much option and I think Tito who is underrated IMO will have a field day. Cardiff look to have power in abundance all over the field with the centres of Roberts and Shanklin with Thomas on the wing and a back row of Rush, Andy Powell and Sam Warburton. Cardiff also look to have an immensly strong bench with Ceri Sweeny Gareth Cooper and Leigh Halfpenny in the backs and Deniol Jones and Robin Sowden Taylor in the forwards. I think Quins are looking to next week at home v Toulouse but will be happy to walk away with a losing bonus point today.

[jaydubs]

Gonna have a little play on the Challenge cup today

Saracens v Rovigo

Saracens play a near full change back line today against the mid table Italians who will be on a damage limitation exercise. Rovigo are not known for scoring points away from home and although Sarries have had a flying start they are not scoring many points themselves, 22 being the highest in 5 games. This is a different kettle of fish though and although they could cut loose I have my reservations. With 7s player Barratt at scrum half and England u-20 Jake Sharp at 10, Sorrell and Penney play their first game of the season in the centres and Horak and Tagicakibau (the younger brother) make their debuts for Sarries which leaves just Richard Haughton as the only player with a start this year in the backs. I know they are all professionals but I cant see the fluidity needed to score 50 pts coming from a back line that hasnt played together and will be unfamilier with each other. The pack is also much changed from recent weeks with their SA contingent taking a rest. They do have a strongish looking bench but I would think that would be more in case the game was not going to be won. Brendan Venter wants to win this game as any coach would but looks to be protecting his squad for the bigger matches and will be happy to walk away with a 10-20 pt win here. For their part Rovigo managed to keep under the hcp last year in 2 of their 3 away games only going well over it (72pts) from a strong London Irish side.

Rovigo +48 @ 10/11

Nice and easy 36-12 only +24 and Sarries got their 4 tries and bonus point