PGA Tour - Farmers Insurance Open - Jan 26th - 29th 2012

[The rabbit]

Good luck KangaMick with your reviews on your friend's website. It is well set out and explained in my opinion but is spoilt by the fact that Tiger is not playing when you say he is as Gecko has already mentioned.
I suppose that the south Torrey Pines course is the longest on the regular PGA tour even though the one at the Matchplay event in Arizona is longer but it is a WGC tournament which is co sanctioned by the PGA tour. Hope Nick Watney wins for you this week

Here are my four selections

Nick Watney ( 16/1 ) from California and won twice last year with victories at the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship and the AT&T National. He is a long hitter ( ranked 16th in driving distance in 2011 on the PGA tour ) and his game is suited to the long Torrey Pines course played three times at this tournament. He has performed very well here in recent years with a win in 2009, a jt 9th in 2010 and a jt 6th last year. He was only jt 12th out of about 32 players in his first event this season which was the Hyundai Tournament of Champions but he usually does much better at this event. Odds are understandably quite short but look worth a win bet in the circumstances.

Keegan Bradley ( 35/1 ) enjoyed a successful rookie season in 2011 with a victory in the HP Byron Nelson Championship and later won the final Major of the year which is the PGA Championship. That event was on a course of about 7500 yards so he has shown he can play well on long courses and he should cope with the longer course ( played three times ) at Torrey Pines this week. He is a long hitter ( rated at 20th in driving distance last year ) and will like the long par 4's and 5's here and finished jt 13th in his latest event which was the Sony Open. He performed well from tee to green then ( ranked at jt 3rd ) and finding greens in regulation could be an advantage this week as it was last year in this tournament. He only finished jt 25th in this event in 2011 but has improved since then and should do better this week.

Bill Haas ( 40/1 ) played consistently on the PGA tour last year with a victory in the TOUR Championship and he also managed seven other top ten finishes including a jt runner up place at the the Greenbrier Classic. He is usually good from tee to green which could be important this week based on past results at this tournament and was 11th in the 2011 GIR rankings. He has been disappointing so far in 2012 with a 20th and 64th finish in his opening two events but could do better at this tournament where he has a reasonably good recent record with a jt 11th in 2009 and a jt 9th last year.

D A Points ( 45/1 ) won his maiden PGA victory at Pebble Beach last year but then failed to achieve a top 5 finish during the remainder of the season. However there have been signs in his two events this year that he could be finding his form again. He was jt 12th in the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in Hawaii and then followed that up with a jt 6th in the Sony Open where he managed to find plenty of greens in regulation ( ranked jt 3rd ) and this could be important at this week's event. His course form is good with a jt 9th in 2010 and a 5th place last year so he has shown a liking for the Torrey Pines layout at this tournament and he looks worth an Each Way interest.

Good luck everybody

Pete

[cabrera]

Consistency has been a big factor based on the last two weeks with Brendan Grace hitting two 1st's and Johnson Wagner making a win and then 2nd.

Will opt for the following;

Robert Garrigus
A couple of top 30's in this when it was known as the Buick Invitational. Driving distance and birdie average will go well here and his game is in good condition following t2 last week.


D.A. Points
5th last year followed by a win two weeks later. Lots of support for him this week on the tipster sites and this is boosted by a good start to 2012. 50/1 worth a go.


Brandt Snedeker
Decided on this guy over Ben Crane, ususally a reliable pick and has enjoyed good form on ths course. T8 last week and loves his birdie streaks - hopefully up there on Sunday night.


Good luck all

[topcornermax]

I am shooting for D.A. Points

[KangaMick]

Thanks guys for the kind words and pointers.
I have now gone back into the preview and endited the 2 spelling mistakes and Tiger clanger!
The PGA tour web site also made the Tiger mistake!!
_________________
Living the Dream!

[gerardpat]

ERNIE ELS



beat in a play off last week and seems to be back on some kind of decent form,his record here is good ,finished fifth in 2010,has come to america this week and at 33to1 looks a good Each Way bet.





CHARLES HOWELL 111




third week in a row backing charles and i would probably have left him alone this week after last weeks performance,but his course record is the best on view here having twice finished runner up and finished 14 last year another small Each Way bet 28to1.

[Fabric]

Top of the market are solid but don't look so attractive odds-wise. Any of them could win, bar Howell who is a prolific non-winner for me.

Main choices:

D.A. Points
Bill Haas
John Rollins

Fringe:

Scott Piercy
Kyle Stanley
J.B. Holmes

Question marks:

Camilo Villegas
Bud Cauley


D.A. Points is probably short enough at the odds but everything just seems to slot in place this week and it would be naive to ignore. Haas and Rollins fit the bill statswise, are proven winners in contention and simply need to drop some putts.

I have a strong fancy for Scott Piercy this week as an outsider, he is in good form and a past winner and holds some decent course form. Stanley is too big at his price and is a bomber along with JB Holmes who is probably going to strike when you least expect it - why not this week which rewards driving distance?

Camilo is similar to D.A. Points and just fits all the angles entirely but I'm not convinced he is back to winning ways until he wins again! I don't think I'd like to take a chance this week but would not be surprised if he ripped it up.

Bud is a class player and is in contention an awful lot for such a new player on Tour. I want to see him win first personally.

[Bronze Tank]

The big guns in the betting haven't shown much early form so I'm looking for some value from further down the field. These are a few guys who showed great potential on the Nationwide Tour and will be pushing hard for recognition on the PGA Tour.

Harris English is currently at 100/1 for this event. Even if he doesn't win it, trust me, you won't be getting this guy at that price in the weeks & months to come.

Another 100/1 shot is Kevin Streelman. I think he will give a good showing in this event.

Finally, one for the future maybe and well worth a small Each Way interest at 250/1. Roberto Castro is a star in the making. He played really well last weekend & if he takes to this golf course he could well be placed at a huge price.

Good luck fellow golf punters.

[swashbuckler]

Hi Folks


There is a few players whose chances I like this week and I will post them up tomorrow when I have some time to add some reasoning but for now I will post up a selection that I am very keen on this week and win or lose, I think this is a player worth following throughout 2012 as I firmly believe that he can win his maiden tour title this year


MICHEAL THOMPSON @ 81

It was in this very tournament last year that I blogged up the chances of Michael Thompson on here at the monsterous odds of @950 so its a bit understandable to think that this week's odds of 80/1 are very much on the skinny side but I think they are still worth taking as I believe Thompson is a certain future PGA Tour winner and I would not rule out his chances of doing so this week on a course (South Course) that he has very fond memories of playing on in the past.
Last year Thompson finished T-65 in this tournament but that finish did not tell the whole story as he was sitting in T-13 (-6) after 14 holes of his third round before a double bogey started his downward spiral but this time round and with another years experience under his belt, I expect Thompson to put in a good performance that lasts the full 72 holes.
Thompson is one of just a few players to have graduated from the Hooters Tour straight on to the main PGA Tour without playing on the Nationwide Tour (bar one appearance in 2010) and he was the No.1 Ranked Amateur in the World in July 2008 so this shows that Thompson had a talent at a early age and I believe he can fulfill that talent by winning his maiden PGA Tour title this year (hopefully this week).
What drew my attention to Thompson in this tournament last year was that he had a special bit of form on the South Course dating back to 2008 when the U.S Open was held here as Thompson finished a excellent T29 that year when playing as a amateur and in my opinion,that was some achievement indeed.
Thompson started his 2012 campaign with a impressive T-6 finish at the Sony Open where he finished just three shots behind winner Johnson Wagner and although he only finished T-54 at last weeks Humana Challenge, I think Thompson can bounce back this week on a course (South Course) that suits his eye and that he has played well on in the past. Worth pointing out that this tournament is played on two courses but three of the four rounds will be played on the South Course.
Last year in what was his rookie year, Thompson posted his best PGA Tour finishes to date with a 3rd at The McGladrey Classic and a 4th at the Travelers Championship and in my opinion, he showed in those displays that he has the game & temperament to challenge for a PGA title win. Thompson teed off on his final hole at the McGladrey Classic in a tie for first place alongside both Ben Crane and Webb Simpson before a final hole bogey pushed him back to 3rd place but I think he will have learned a lot from that experience especially if he finds himself in title contention again.
Besides his T-6 at the Sony Open Thompson also finished 3rd behind winner Lee Westwood at the Thailand Golf Championship in December which makes it a total of three Top-6 finishes in his last five tournament starts worldwide.
Thompson is a very good putter and is well able to shoot low rounds as he showed last year when shooting a final round 8-under 62 on his way to finishing 4th at the Travelers Championship and this season he shot a 65 in Round 2 of the Sony Open.
I have earmarked this tournament as one that Thompson could possibly win and I am hopeful that this week he will at least give me a run for my money.



Best of Luck

[dleiper]

Hello folks,
Quicky here- at work. E/w Picks this week for me are,

A Kim- 6th here last year and has hopefully blown away the cobwebs after playing last week. Was starting to show some form at the end of last year.

B Snedeker- good showing last week and has some pretty good course form.

C Howell 111- had a good start to the season and must surely be due a win

M Thompson- Picked him last week and he didn't do very well but I'll stick with him again this week as Swashbuckler has persuaded me with his post!!

Good Luck,
Dave

[richardmcfc]

C Villegas - 40/1 - Backed him last week and was leading after the first round with a magnificent 9 under. Didnt really kick on in what was a birdie fest, but he showed some decent enough touches to suggest that he could do well this week especially considering he likes it round here. A dissapointing 2011 for Villegas, but he is someone I expect big things of in 2012.

A Baddeley - 55/1 - Did you expect anything else? Huge talent and can kick on this year once again. Not really much more to add on this, but I wasnt expecting 55's to be on offer for Badders this week. Exceptional putter and can compete this week.

[galster99]

Interesting one this, you have the longest course on Tour which requires length and accuracy to some of the smallest greens on Tour and then you have short course where scores are to be made. With this in mind here are my weekly selections-

Rickie Fowler 28-1- The mecurial golden boy of US golf is ready for a breakout year. Showd last year in the Open that he has the game to tackle difficult courses. Also has the game to shoot low and can attack. First start of the year he may need to get the rust out of his swing but put in a decent showing last year. My hot tip for the week.

Aaron Baddeley 55-1- Alot of time for the best Aussie putter on Tour. Backed him last year at the Players Championship and put up a decent showing. A decent showing in the season opener I expect Baddeley, you have to go back to 2009 for a noteworthy showing in this tournament. Missed cut last two years but willing to overlook that.

Justin Rose 45-1- Another making his first appearance of the season. Justin has developed into a solid all round player and looking at the stats he hits alot of greens which is a big advantage this week. If he can reproduce the form which brought him victory in the BMW then Justin may be there or there abouts this week. Being a Ryder cup year then he will be looking to start the year off well.

Finally my long punt of the week is Chez Reavie 125-1..5 top 10 ten finishes and 9 top T-25 finishes last season makes Chez one of the suprise packages of last season. Should have won the Deutsche Bank last season when imploding on the 18th allowing Webb Simpson to win in a play off. Ranked straightest player on Tour and ranked 4th in strokes gained putting which if reproduced this week will see him challenging.

Good luck whoever your bunce is on

[swashbuckler]

Hi Folks


Just throwing these selections in the mix in the hope that one of them could sneak into a place in what is a tough looking tournament prediction wise.....


CAMILIO VILLEGAS @ 36
Colombian Camilo Villegas did not live up to expectations last year but he did finish the year on a positive note with some good finishes and after his good effort at last weeks Humana Challenge tournament, I think Villegas could be ready to strike in this weeks Farmers Insurance event. Villegas made a poor start to his season last year and it was only in the second half of the season that the Colombian started to find his form especially in the last half dozen events of 2011. Villegas best finish of 2011 was a T3 at the St.Jude Classic but he reserved his best form for the latter stages of the season with four Top-10 finishes in his last 5 starts which included a T4 at the CIMB Asia Pacific Classic, T6 at both the Barclays and the BMW Championship and a T-9 at the Wyndham Championship.
Villegas has good previous form in this tournament having finished T-3 here in 2009 & T-13 in 2008 and he also played well here in 2008 when the South Course held the U.S Open as he finished in T-9. Villegas is another player that tends to play some of his best golf in early season and he looks like he is following that trend again this year after his performance last week at the Humana Challenge when he finished T-19 on his seasonal debut after opening up with a brilliant first round of 63. With the cobwebs blown away, I now think Villegas is a must for any short lists of a potential winner for this weeks tournament


MICHAEL THOMPSON @ 81
It was in this very tournament last year that I blogged up the chances of Michael Thompson on here at the monsterous odds of @950 so its a bit understandable to think that this week's odds of 80/1 are very much on the skinny side but I think they are still worth taking as I believe Thompson is a certain future PGA Tour winner and I would not rule out his chances of doing so this week on a course (South Course) that he has very fond memories of playing on in the past. Last year Thompson finished T-65 in this tournament but that finish did not tell the whole story as he was sitting in T-13 (-6) after 14 holes of his third round before a double bogey started his downward spiral but this time round and with another years experience under his belt, I expect Thompson to put in a good performance that lasts the full 72 holes. Thompson is one of the few players that have graduated from the Hooters Tour straight on to the main PGA Tour without playing on the Nationwide Tour (bar one appearance in 2010) and he was the No.1 Ranked Amateur in the World in July 2008 so this shows that Thompson had a talent at a early age and I believe he can fulfill that talent by winning his maiden PGA Tour title this year (hopefully this week).
What drew my attention to Thompson in this tournament last year was that he had a special bit of form on the South Course dating back to 2008 when the U.S Open was held here as Thompson finished a excellent T29 that year when playing as a amateur and in my opinion,that was some achievement indeed. Thompson started his 2012 campaign with a impressive T-6 finish at the Sony Open where he finished just three shots behind winner Johnson Wagner and although he only finished T-54 at last weeks Humana Challenge, I think Thompson can bounce back this week on a course (South Course) that suits his eye and that he has played well on in the past.
Worth pointing out that this tournament is played on two courses but three of the four rounds will be played on the South Course. Last year in what was his rookie year, Thompson posted his best PGA Tour finishes to date with a 3rd at The McGladrey Classic and a 4th at the Travelers Championship and in my opinion, he showed in those displays that he has the game & temperament to challenge for a PGA title win.
Thompson teed off on his final hole at the McGladrey Classic in a tie for first place alongside both Ben Crane and Webb Simpson before a final hole bogey pushed him back to 3rd place but I think he will have learned a lot from that experience especially if he finds himself in title contention again. Besides his T-6 at the Sony Open Thompson also finished 3rd behind winner Lee Westwood at the Thailand Golf Championship in December which makes it a total of three Top-6 finishes in his last five tournament starts worldwide. Thompson is a very good putter and is well able to shoot low rounds as he showed last year when shooting a final round 8-under 62 on his way to finishing 4th at the Travelers Championship and this season he shot a 65 in Round 2 of the Sony Open. I have earmarked this tournament as one that Thompson could possibly win and I am hopeful that this week he will at least give me a run for my money.


JOHN ROLLINS @ 81
John Rollins has started his 2012 campaign in decent form and I think he could put in another big performance in California this week at a tournament that he has played very well at in past years. Rollins finished T-66 at last weeks Humana Challenge but the week before Rollins finished a very decent T-10 at the Sony Open where he finished with a excellent final round of 64. Rollins best finish last year came at the Travelers Championship where he finished T-2 and he finished 2011 in good form with two Top-6 finishes in his last 3 starts so in total, Rollins has had three Top-10 finishes in his last five tournament starts.
Rollins has a good record in this tournament with his best result here been a runner-up finish in 2009 when he held a three-shot lead with just five holes remaining only to eventually lose out by just 1 stroke behind winner Nick Watney. Rollins other good tournament finishes here were a T-4 in 2006, T-8 in 2002 & T-20 in 2010. Rollins is a 3-time tour winner who tends to play some of his best golf in early season and if he can get off to a decent start here on Thursday then I think Rollins could challenge for at least a place.


BRANDT JOBE @ 126
Brandt Jobe has had his fair share of injuries in the last number of years but the American showed last year that he can still play the game to a high standard with four Top-10 tour finishes and given his likening for Torrey Pines, I don't think it would be a major surprise if Jobe flew under the radar this week at what seem very generous odds. Jobe's best finish last year was a impressive T-2 in what was a high quality field at the Memorial Tournament when he shot a excellent final round of 65 only to come up short by just 1 stroke behind winner Steve Stricker.
Jobe's other Top-10 finishes of last year were a T-7 at the Puerto Rico Open, a T-8 at the Shell Houston Open and a 9th at the BMW Championship. Jobe finished T-29 in this tournament last year but he has performed well here in the past as he finished T-10 here in 2006, T-10 in 2004, T-13 in 2001 & T-18 in 2005. Jobe's best finish here in Torrey Pines is undoubtedly his T-18 which came at the 2008 U.S Open when it was held here on the difficult South Course. Although Jobe has never won on the PGA Tour he does have 12 International victories to his name and he did show last year that he has the game to win on this tour if he can just put 4 good rounds together (a statement that applies to all golfers). Jobe finished last season ranked No.3 in Total Driving, No.3 in Ball Striking, No.9 in Total Birdies, No.14 in Greens in Regulation & No.15 in All-Around Ranking. Jobe missed the cut on his seasonal debut at last weeks Humana Challenge but that effort should have blown off the cobwebs and if Jobe can get off to a good start here this week then he just might reward his eachway backers.


BOBBY GATES @ 201
Bobby Gates is another player that I blogged up for this tournament last year and just like Michael Thompson, Gates also finished in a lowly T-65 but after his fine performance at last week's Humana Challenge, I think Gates is worthy of a small eachway interest in the hope that he can carry last weeks form into this week's Farmer's Insurance tournament in Torrey Pines.
Gates first came to my attention at the Australian PGA Championship in 2010 when he took a one-shot lead going into the final round of the Australian PGA Championship before eventually shooting 74 on his way to finishing T-6 and after that performance I remember thinking that Gates had the profile of a player that could eventually win on tour and after last week's performance,I believe that still to be the case. Gates shot a excellent second round of 63 on his way to finishing T-8 at last week's Humana Challenge but that is not his only Top 10 finish on the PGA tour as he also put in some very good performance in 2011.
Last year Gates had four Top-6 finishes and the best of those was undoubtedly his T-3 finish at the very difficult end of season PGA Tour Qualifying Tournament. Gates other Top-6 finishes last year were a T-5 at the Mayakoba Golf Classic, a 6th at the Puerto Rico Open and a T-6 at the Wells Fargo Championship. Gates created a bit of history on his very first start on the Nationwide Tour in 2010 when he became only the 13th player in Tour history to win on his debut when he captured the season-opening Michael Hill New Zealand Open. Gates also showed he can handle tough courses with a T-40 at the 2010 U.S Open when still a rookie on the Nationwide tour. Gates is long off the tee which should be a asset at this weeks tournament and if he can carry last weeks form into Torrey Pines then he just might challenge for a place come Sunday night.


A few other players who were in my thoughts were J.Merrick @201, J.Lovemark @201 & K.Sutherland @226 so I will also be interested to see how these three players get on this week.



Best of Luck