Joined: 03 Jul 2006
Posts: 1042
Location: South Devon
Posted: Mon May 07, 2012 1:43 pm Post subject: PGA Tour - Players Championship May 10th - 13th 2012
Time for one of my favourite golf tournaments of the year with the Players Championship taking place at TPC Sawgrass , Ponte Vedra Beach in Florida. The course is a par 72 with four par 5's and is just over 7200 yards. It is often called the 5th major and a lot of the top players are competing this week including Tiger, Phil Mickelson, Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy.
There are lots of bunkers and water hazards on this course which can be quite tricky and accuracy and placement are important. This event is best known for it's island green on the 17th hole and the 18th is not that easy which can sometimes mean that there is an interesting and exciting finish.
Experienced players often do well here and K J Choi ( won with -13 ) is the defending champion and the americans do not have a good record in this during recent years with only two of them ( Fred Funk & Phil Mickelson ) winning in the last 8 years. Sergio Garcia likes it here with a victory ( 2008 ) & a runner up place and Ben Crane often plays well and was 6th in 2008, 5th in 2009 and 4th in 2010.
Going with four in this. Justin Rose who has been playing consistently his year....only problem is that he has always played moderately in the past when I have bet on him Sergio Garcia has decent course form and has also produced some good performances in 2012. If an american is going to win then it could be Ryan Moore who has recovered from injury problems and is now playing some good golf with three top 10's in his last four events - surprised his odds are as big as 140's on B/Fair. Optimistic pick is Henrik Stenson who won this in 2009 and was jt 3rd in 2006. Lost his form last year but has shown some signs of a return to being a better golfer this year.
EDIT -
Justin Rose ( 45/1 ) has already won on the PGA tour this season and that was at the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship. He later came jt 8th at the Masters and was jt 10th at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans so he is in good form at the moment. He has been playing very well from tee to green this season and his game is in good shape with an all around ranking of 4th. His course form is nothing special but he could be ready to produce a good performance at this tournament.
Sergio Garcia ( 50/1 ) has a good record at this course with a 14th in 06, a 2nd in 07, a victory in 2008 and a jt 12th last year so I think he is worth an Each Way interest this week as he obviously has a liking for this tournament. His form on the PGA tour this year has been reasonable with no missed cuts and his best efforts have been a jt 4th in the Northern Trust Open and a jt 12th at the Masters. He has been putting better than usual so far this season which is encouraging and another decent performance from him in this event looks likely.
Ryan Moore ( 100/1 ) did not win last season but produced some good performances including a jt 4th at the Northern Trust and a jt 2nd at the Travellers. His results in the FedexCup plays offs were respectable with a jt 10th at the Deutsche Bank and a jt 16th at the BMW. Some of his best form has been produced on shorter par 70 courses ( his only PGA victory so far was achieved in the Wyndham over a par 70 course ) but he can play well on longer par 72 courses. He suffered an injury at the end of last season but seems to have fully recovered from it now and has played well recently with three top 10 finishes in his last four tournaments including a jt 5th last week where his driving accuracy was very good and that can be important at the Players. He also putted well last week so may be finding his best form to give a decent performance this week in the Players where he has never missed the cut.
Henrik Stenson ( 125/1 ) struggled last year to find his best game but he has shown some signs this year that he may be capable of wining again. He was 20th in the Omega Dubai Desert Classic on the European tour earlier this season where he shot a 64 in the second round. He came 21st at the Honda Classic and was jt 3rd in the Puerto Rico Open ( which is a much weaker event than the Players ) and played quite well for 3 days at the Masters before struggling in the final round. He has missed the cut in his two recent PGA tournaments but could do better this week on a course he has done well on previously as he was jt 3rd here in 2006 and won this tournament in 2009.
Good luck everybody
Pete
Last edited by The rabbit on Mon May 07, 2012 6:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
Not a player im particularly fond of however i feel he is decent value this week at a standout 80/1 with Stan James (best priced 66 elsewhere but mostly around the 50/1 mark)
Has some decent course form in the last few years -tied for 6th in 2008, tied for 5th in 2009, tied for 4th in 2010..... Last year - a poor 2nd round (76) proved costly and could only manage tied for 45th, however i feel he comes into this tournament in better form than that of last year. In 12 events this year, he has made the cut 9 times, with 4 top ten finishes including a 2nd.
Last edited by djpeem on Mon May 07, 2012 7:03 pm; edited 1 time in total
Every bookmakers seem to be paying 6 places this week which is good to see i will be going with Scott Piercy 150/1 Eachway piercys playing well this year 7 top 25's from 13 starts. Best finnish 5th at the Transitions Championship has been 18th and 13th in last 2 events played. So goes into this in form. His putting has improved a lot over last 2 years he is 8th for eagles and 16th for birdies .. only concern is is lack of driveing accuracy could be a problem this week best finnish is 22nd at this event but played it only twice pick 2 is a old friend Johnson Wagner 175/1 Eachway won the sony open this year and has 2 further top 5 placings form has tailed off slightly over the last few weeks which is why he is such a big price for this event. He has the game to challenge this week if he can get back some of his early season form Good luck everyone
Well I've narrowed it down to seven players and may back them all as their combined odds works out at around 10/1.
Adam Scott - 8th at the Masters recently Adam won this event in 2004.
Jason Day - Slightly fallen off of the radar, but inside top ten last week and can also boast a 6th place in this last year.
Martin Kaymer - Not at his best so far this year, but double the price he'd normally be. Finished 19th here last year.
Matt Kuchar - Numerous top tens already this season. Usually thereabouts and a 14th place finish here in 2009 and 13th in 2010 suggests the course holds no fears for him.
Zach Johnson - Playing well recently and finished 12th here last year.
Chris Stroud - Lively outsider, has had five top fifteen finishes this year. Finished 10th here in 2011 and 12th in 2010 yet you can get odds well over 100/1. Serious place claims.
Jonathan Byrd - One of the most underated players on tour and has three top tens already this season. Course form only moderate, but huge odds more than make up for that.
The PGA Tour leaves North Carolina this week and heads South to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida for The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.
This Tournament draws a World Class field and is considered by most to be the 5th Major. It was established in 1974 when the inaugural winner was Jack Nicklaus. He was also successful in 1976 and 1978.
In 2008 the Purse was raised to US$9,500,00 with the Winner now taking home US$1,710,000. It is the highest Winning Share of any Tournament on the PGA Tour including the 4 Majors.
TPC Sawgrass has been the home of The Players Championship since 1982. The Stadium course was designed by Peter Dye in 1979, then went through a redesign in 2006. It is a Par 72, 7,215 yard course with 93 sand bunkers and 24 water hazards. It has the reputation of being one of the toughest courses on the Tour. The Greens are Bermuda Grass and they are tough and fast.
The Par 3, 17th hole is one of the most recognised holes in World Golf. It is commonly known as the 'Island Green' and is the signature hole of the Stadium course. Even although it only measures 120 metres from tee to green it has caused many headaches to even the most experienced players over the years. There are many factors that come in to play. Firstly there is the visual factor of the green being surrounded by water, then you have the undulating green factor of knowing where to land your ball, and lastly there is the weather factor which makes club selection all that more difficult when there is some wind around the course. In 2007 there were 50 balls that ended up in the water, and that was in one round!
After you get over the fear of the 17th you then have to contend with the Par 4, 18th which has water all along the left side of the fairway. You need to make sure your drive off the tee is accurate other wise your ball could be in danger of landing on the drink again.
To play well here you need to hit a lot of fairways and a lot of greens. If you cant do this then you are in for a tough 2 days as you probably wont make the cut. This course has a habit of biting you hard if you get into trouble. It also helps to be a good scrambler incase you do find yourself in trouble. All the past winners have ranked highly in GIR stats as well as scrambling so look for someone that hits it straight and hits thier fair share of greens.
It should also point out that players who have played here several times in the past are more successful than those that are new to the place. Experience here counts for everything.
Looking at the field this week we have 28 of the Worlds Top 30 players taking part and as such the odds on offer are very inviting.
The Top 10 in the Market are:-
Rory McIlroy 10/1 fav, Luke Donald 15/1, Lee Westwood 15/1, Phil Mickelson 20/1, Tiger Woods 20/1, Hunter Mahan 30/1, Jason Dufner 33/1, Jason Day 40/1, Rickie Fowler 40/1, Sergio Garcia 40/1.
The Past 5 Winners of The Players Championship are:-
2011 K.J.Choi
2010 Tim Clarke
2009 Henrik Stenson
2008 Sergio Garcia
2007 Phil Mickelson
So who will be the Winner in 2012? I have four players who I believe fit the bill and should be up there challenging on Sunday afternoon.
Hunter Mahan 30/1
What more is there to say about Hunter? He is in career best form with 2 Wins to his name already this season with victory in the WGC Match Play and Shell Houston Open. From 9 starts he has made all 9 cuts with 7 Top 25 finishes and 3 Top 10's.
He played well at the Masters finishing for a T12th and early in the season he had a T6th Farmers Insurance and T15th AT&T Pebble Beach.
Looking at his past results at Sawgrass he hasnt set the world on fire however he has made the cut in his last 4 appearances and this season he is playing at a different level altogether.
Stats wise he is primed to play well as he is 8th in Driving Accuracy, %th in Greens in regualtion, 5th in Ball Striking and 18th in Scoring average. It is also interesting to note that from all the players in the past 5 years who have played here, he is ranked 10th in scoring average at 71.46.
It would not be a suprise to see him claim his 3rd victory for 2012 this week.
Ben Crane 60/1
There are 4 members of the 'Golf Boys' who are a youtube sensation with their song "Oh Oh Oh Oh" which was done for charity. The four members are Ben Crane, Bubba Watson, Hunter Mahan and Rickie Fowler. Threee of them have won on tour this year already. Watson in the Masters, Mahan in the WGC and Houston Open and Fowler won his maiden career victory last week at Quall Hallow. It is now time for the 4th member to stand up and claim his moment in the spot light!
Ben has had 12 starts on tour this season and made 9 cuts. He is playing good consistant golf with 5 Top 25's and 3 Top 10's already to his name. His 2 Top 10's were T8th Humana Championship, T9th Hyundai Tournament of Champions and 2nd Phoenix Open.
All that sets up for a good showing this week. Looking at his course form you know he loves playing here. Last year he was T45th, in 2010 he was T4th, 2008 was T5th and 2007 was T6th. That's pretty good course form in any ones book!
Stats wise he is 57th in Driving Accuracy, 57th in Greens in Regulation, 10th in Strokes gained putting, 13th in Birdies and 7th in Par 5 Performnce. He is also ranked 2nd for stroke average in the last 5 years at Sawgrass at 70.81.
Perhaps the 'Golf Boys' will be singing a group victory song in the bar if Ben is successful this week.
Zach Johnson 60/1
With a World Golf Ranking of 32 and 7 PGA Tour victories to his name, Zachcertainly knows how to win. His golf this season is very consistant and he has not missed a cut to date. From 11 events played he has 5 Top 25's and 2 Top 10's.
Highlights have been T8th Humana Challenge, T17th Northern Trust, T17th WGC Cadillac Championship, T11th Arnold Palmer Invitational and 2nd RBC Heritage.
He has had 8 visits to Sawgrass and recorded 4 finishes in the Top 25. Last year he was T12th. And from his last 12 rounds here he has been under Par on 8 of them.
Zach consistantly ranks high for Driving Accuracy on the tour and this year is the same. He his 10th in Driving Accuracy, 9th in Scrambling, 16th in Scoring average, 25th in Strokes gained from Putting and 2nd in Par 5 Performance.
All this makes for a player who should go very close to victory.
Ben Curtis 80/1
2003 Open Champion Curtis has been in the wilderness the last few years however 2012 has seen him back to his best. With 4 Top 15 finished from 6 starts this year he is one of the most inform golfers heading into The Players Championship.
He missed the Cut in the Mayakoba Golf Classic back in February then went on to finish T14th in the Puerto Rico Open. He played in the Tavistock Cup and finished T1st. From there he had another missed Cut in the Shell Houston Open.
Then the purple patch of form came with victory in the Valero Texas Open. He backed up a week later in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and posted a T13th. Jump forward another week to the Wells Frago Championship at Quall Hallow and he finished in a share for 5th.
Thats 3 great finishes in 3 weeks, so why cant he make it 4 from 4? Nothing beats confidence!
His last four starts at Sawgrass have seen him make the Cut on each ocassion however this isnt the point. We are selecting him based on his current form.
He is currently ranked 4th in Driving Accuracy, 5th in Greens in Regulation and 2nd in Strokes gained Putting. 3 great stats that are required to play at Sawgrass. Add to this a ranking of 4th in Par 4 Performance, 8th in Par 3 Performance and 25th in Scrambling and we have a guy who should give us some bang for our buck!
Good Luck and Good Punting! _________________ Living the Dream!
Here is some extra information that you may or may not know that could help with match/group bets this week...
Lee Westwood - His regular bagman Billie Foster will be out of action for around six months due to damaged knee ligaments. Westwood used Fred Couples caddie Cayce Kerr last week and will again at the Players Championship. Whether they will pair up for the rest of the season is yet to be decided.
Graeme McDowell - Withdrew from the Wells Fargo Championship last week claiming that he was under the weather. Returns to action at Sawgrass, but may be best watched for now.
Jason Dufner - Dufner got married on Saturday 5th May so could be a little jaded heading into this tournament.
Jason Day - Sprained his ankle in the US Masters and was advised by Doctor's to take around six weeks off. Returned earlier than expected last week and finished inside the top ten.
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
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Location: County Durham
Posted: Tue May 08, 2012 4:47 pm Post subject:
Chris Stroud EW @ 125/1
Chris Stroud has played this event twice before, last year he finished tied 12th despite a 3rd round 74 and in 2010 he was tied 10th and again scored a 74 but this time on payday Sunday.
This year so far he has mixed fortunes, he has played 12 events and missed the cut 4 times, including in last weeks Wells Fargo, but he has also had 5 top 15 finishes and another 2 in the top 25.
He has shot 8 rounds over par this year and shot 17 rounds under 70. He lies 16th overall in strokes gained whilst putting and 17th overall for scoring averages, which is why has had so many rounds under 70.
He has yet to finish in the top 5 of any event but has still won over $4.5m in prize money due to his good scoring and constant high placings.
Jason Dufner EW @ 40/1
Jason Dufner has only played here 3 times before and has a top 10 and a top 20 placing to his name.
He has played better every week this year, he started the year by missing the cut in the Sony Open but has played the weekend in every tournament he has played since then.
He won his first pga tour event in New Orlenas and hasn't played since so he will arrive here fresher than most and in a confident mood after his first win.
He carded an incredible 19 under par in New Orleans and never put a foot wrong all week, he was tied 6th here last year and might have finished higher if not for a level par 72 on the Sunday.
He missed the cut in 2010 but didn't score too badly, he was 1 over after 36 holes, in 2009 he looked well placed after 2 rounds but a 77 and a 73 put an end to his challenge and he finished tied for 32nd place.
He can keep his good run going and grab another high finish here this week
Sergio Garcia EW @ 40/1
Sergio loves playing here, he has won this event once and had another 2 top 5 finishes.
Sergio's last event on the Pga tour was the Masters where he finished tied 12th which was a fantastic finish as he posted a 3rd round 75 amongst his scores.
He tied 12th here last year despite 2 rounds over par, and in 2008 he was primed for a decent finish but for a final round 78 which left him level par for the tournament.
He won in a play off in 2008, again after scoring 2 rounds over par, he has made the weekend in all 6 events played in 2012 and another great week is on the cards here again.
Tiger Woods EW @ 25/1
Tiger missed the cut last week in the Wells Fargo but that was his first missed cut of 2012.
When you look closely though you will see he scored a level par 144 for his first 2 rounds, normally that what easily get you into the weekend in any event but not last week.
You could understand people commenting on his missed cut if he had scored 8 over for his rounds but he scored a 71 & a 73 which are not bad rounds.
Tiger has a fantastic record here in this event, he has played here 12 times and finished in the top 20 on 7 occasions.
He has won it once, had another top 5 finish and 2 more top 10 places, he didn't play here last year and withdrew through injury in 2010 after being 4 under after 3 rounds.
He was 8th in 2009 despite a final round 73, 25/1 is massive for a player with his record here and if he can get it right this weekend then those odds will look silly come Sunday night.
Joined: 08 Jun 2007
Posts: 8980
Location: Essex/Javea
Posted: Tue May 08, 2012 4:57 pm Post subject:
Ian Poulter 80/1 E/W
Ian Poulter is some player and on his day is amazing and loves the big events and loves to show off Poults has took a break so he was ready for this events and said his game is in brilliant nick and reckons he will do really well and driving it well and been boasting how well things are going on twitter Course form around here is good and came so close to winning it in 2010 when second so will want to make amends for that Poults played superb in the Masters and they say this is the fifth major to players so always does well on the big stage and think he will go well at massive odds
Peter Hanson 80/1 E/W
Peter Hanson has a cracking record in big events and based on that has a cracking chance this week and looks value Each Way Hanson is always consistent and in better form then most of these and not sure why he is three times bigger in price then them Hanson played superb in the Masters and came close to winning it and seems to play better the better the field is Hanson also was superb in the matchplay and will relish it here Hanson has four top ten placings in his last six events and think he can surprise here this week"
Sergio Garcia 40/1 E/W
Sergio Garcia has always been a amazing problems but is a confidence player and seems to doubt himself in the big stage but once he wins i am sure he will be even better and putting is really improving which has cost him over the years Garcia has not played since the masters but gave a good showing when 12th Garcia has the best record around here out of these and won this in 2008 and has many top 15 efforts here and looks great Each Way value no doubt Had plenty of time to practice for this and earned the most money at this course then any of them so surely he must be confident of doing well again"
Steve Stricker 40/1 E/W
Steve Stricker is some player and must be feared and looks massive here this week Steve Stricker has a great record and with eight wins on the tour in three years you must be feared in all events Stricker is always consistent and has the game to do well here no doubt with a great short game which is needed here and lethal with the putter Does not have the best record around here but is improving every go and finished 12th last year so expecting better here"
I agree with the few who have suggested Ben Crane as being overpriced this week. He has three top tens in this tournament and clearly has a liking for the set up at Sawgrass.
The other three for me contain no surprises. I think the first two can be easily labelled as the best ball strikers bar none around at the moment.
Rory McIlroy hits it as far as anyone at the moment. Where he was smashing his drivers and three woods for that matter to last Sunday on the 18th in regulation and in the play-off (both under pressure) was a joke. When Tiger was in this form (the Masters has been Rory's only real blow out recently where he hasn't contended) 10 years ago he was the 2-1 he used to be. Rory is trading at 10-1. Overpriced?!?
Lee Westwood has hit the ball tee to green better than anyone in recent years. Especially in the big tournaments where he has top five after top five. There's a big argument to call him a choker. I feel this may be a prelude to a proper major this year. He's trading at 16-1. This still represents value in my eyes. Especially as his weakness, his putting, will be helped by Sawgrass' flattening of the greens in recent years.
The final one to go with Crane, Westwood and McIlroy is the best non-Ryder cup player around at the minute. Jason Day. Around 40-1 on offer. He comes into this having returned from a sprained ankle last week with four creditable rounds under par at the tough Quail Hollow track. Rickie Fowler the week before played well without challenging and normally the winner has bubbled under the surface the week before. Remember this guy challenged in ALL the majors last year along with here. Had fowler not won his debut win he may well have entered calculations but that will probably have taken too much out of him.
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Unless perhaps he becomes like the 5th Beatle and they bring in, say, Webb Simpson on drums....... 
