PGA Tour - Wells Fargo Championship 3rd - 6th May 2012

[Clearo611]

One man for me this week.
Lee WESTWOOD E/W 15/1 Paddy Power
This track is about Greens in regulation and bogey avoidance.
Westwood tops the GIR % on the PGA Tour and is 8th in bogey avoidance and considering his putting woes over the past few months that is pretty amazing. However sinking birdie putts may not be the key this week , more the avoidance of bogies.
We all know that amazing stat about how many extra putts he had compared to the other top players at Augusta and if his putter even has an average week then his outrageously good ball striking should be enough to contest at the business end.

[Wallsendlad]

If Lee WESTWOOD can get his erratic putting sorted out,( maybe a belly putter would help him), then another U.S. win is on the cards.
MICKELSON with his excellent record here has to be worth a bet. No need to elaborate further.
3 outsiders to consider( there's always at least one to give you a run for your money)
Brian DAVIS 100/1 t16th here last year, he has run into a bit of form with 2 tied 4th places and a joint 13th from his last 4 outings.
Chris STROUD 110/1 whose progression since joining the tour properly in 2007, has gone from just avoiding the cut to this seasons record of 7 x top 25 finishes, with 5 of those being top 15 or better.
And for a very long shot, David MATHIS 175/1 whose last 2 finishes have been inside the top 20 (tied 10th last week) could be on a mini run of reasonable finishes. He is 16/1 for a top 10 finish this week.

[chappy]

I will have to agree with Galster and go for JB Holmes this week has course form and hitting the ball well looking at last week and previous weeks tournaments,hits the ball a long way and eats up the par 5's,good player and might be ready to win after having that operation and fitness must be there now

80-1 good price with Hills

[rockon]

Hit the bar with a couple of tips last week, dufner 1st round leader ew came 6th, tringale ew and he came 7th when he could easily have been placed :x
hoping for better luck this week and going to go with
BRADLEY 40-1 again this week. hoping last weeks m/c and last years m/c and no other course form arent going to go against him this week. he ranks high in all the key stats scrambling 14th/par 5's 6th/ scoring ave. 8th/1st in all round to name a few.has been in contention in most of his starts this year, im happy to forgive/hope that last week was a one off.
i think BRADLEY could be good value.
VAN PELT 40-1 will be my next one. i think BO should do better then he does. did him in the masters and really fancied him but he didnt really get going until the last round. BVP strength is obv. his putting, 1st in strokes gained and birdie or better, 4th in total putting and he is also excellent from 15-25ft distance, he can also be long and accurate off the tee and ranks 4th in the all round. also ranks 1st in final round scoring so if near could do well. 1 win in 303 starts really doesnt do him justice tho and he can be frustrating. poor scrambling may be a worry.
CURTIS 80-1 is my next fancy. was looking at STANLEY and GARRIGUS at sim odds but had doubts about there putting so went with CURTIS, who is in good current form 13th and a 1st in last 2 starts, ranks 1st in accuracy and 3rd in GIR but what i really liked was his putting from distance stats. he ranks 1st from 15-20', 2nd 10-15', 9th 15-25' and 16th from 25'+. he also ranks 1st in prox to hole and in 3 putt avoidence. not bad for 80-1 shot. needs to do better on the par 5's and in the last round and lack of distance may be a worry but here's hoping.
I have also done MICKLESON AND JIMENEZ in a cross tourn. double and PAT PEREZ 1st round leader 100-1 ew.
might add one of HUH or OGILVY possibly too.
good luck
J

[Micko70]

Bobby Gates @ 200/1
Bobby Gates has played here only once before, that was last year when he finished 6th with 3 rounds under 70.

Prior to coming here last year he had missed the cut in 4 of his previous 6 events but managed a 5th place in Cancun.

This year he has missed less cuts and managed 2 very good rounds last week, he scored a 65 and a 68 and despite shooting a 74 he finished tied 24th on 10 under, he missed the weekend in the same event last year.

He has made the weekend in 9 of his 13 events played this year on the PGA tour, but it's normally his final round where his problems lie.

6 times this year he has shot his worst or joint worst round on the Sunday and he needs to address that if he wants to grab high placings, hopefully he can start that here.

Lucas Glover @ 100/1
Last years winner Lucas Glover has been plagued by injury but has said he feels the best he has been since his injury in December of last year.

He has played this event 8 times in his career and aswell as wining last year he was tied 2nd in 2009 and has had 2 other top 10 finishes.

He has only played 5 events this year and despite carrying little niggles most of the time he has made the weekend in 3 of those, including his last 2 events.

If he is back to full fitness he must have a chance of a decent score on a course he loves.

Last year he missed the cut for 3 consecutive weeks before winning here, so coming here with 2 weekends played is a slight bonus.

Rickie Fowler @ 50/1
Rickie Fowler has played in this event twice, he has a top 10 finish and a top 20 finish to his name.

Last year he tied 16th after shooting 2 rounds of 68, in 2010 he finished 6th despite shooting a 73 on the first day.

He had a good finish last weekend, he was tied 10th and shot a 65 on the Friday to give himself a chance.

He tends to put in the odd bad round, 9 of his rounds this year have been over par but he also puts in some really good rounds, he has shot 13 rounds under 70 this year.

He grabbed his 16th place here last year after finishing 26th in New Orleans, this year he was 10th there so hopefully he can continue his good run.
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[carterbet]

Apologies team, huge work commitments have left no time for reasons this week.

Gone for;

BvP
Pettersson
Garrigus
Byrd
Holmes

[harbinger10]

am going to avoid all the top ten here in the betting first up

c.howell 111 75/1 made 11 cuts from 12 and 5 top 25`s and a top ten is 23rd in scoreing ave and his scoring ave b4 the cut he lies 8th so could get in the top ten this week.

robert garrigus80/1 now he has only made 5 cuts of the ten torny`s he has entered but he does have 2 top tens one of which is a 2nd place finish at the transisions and a t13th at the heritage and standa in 1st place in round 3 scoring ave 9th in gir if he can be there abouts after round 2 i have to fancy his chances .


sean o`hair80/1 a 2nd and a top 25 place for him puts him in the picture and 9 cuts made from ten if he can get 4 consistant rounds here will defo be there sunday 9th in longest drives and 13th in par 3 performance .


and last one a long shot here

david mathis 175/1 he missed a good few of his opening torny`s cuts 10 of 11 to be precise but he has come to life recently with 18th and a tenth place last 2 weeks so he will be quitly confident here and could go well at a decent price.

good luck to everyone this week


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dont gamble if you cant afford to lose it

[dleiper]

Hi folks,
This is a quickie as I'm back offshore at work with very limited computer access.
Have steered clear of the skinny odds for the favourites and am going e/w with these-

Ben Curtis- Popular pick this week and enough been said about him already- what can i add- good form at the moment.

J. Byrd- last years runner up- form not too consistent but maybe returning here will spark something.


Zach Johnson- after being runner up to Carl Petterssen a couple of weeks ago I decided Iwould be backing him in his next event.

V. Singh- Bit of a wild card pick as he hasn't performed well lately but saw somewhere he tweeted he's had treatment on his back and feeling fit. Has a pretty good record here.

Good luck,
Dave

[gecko6]

terrific event this one and a decent field (and a tough course for a change)

my rankings for this event >

1 mcilroy 10.33
2 woods 12.00
3 mickelson 14.67
4 westwood 18.83
5 mahan 22.50
6 simpson 24.83
7 haas 26.50
8 bradley 29.50
9 z johnson 31.67
10 furyk 34.17
11 van pelt 35.50

this is the top 11 playing of my top 25 world ranked - taking my rankings, price and form etc into account I will go for these >

MICKELSON > terrific record here but no W on his record - could be about to change as he may well sneak through and win here if he can keep the wild holes away and sink a few - record and form are so good so he gets the nod for me at 13 Betfair

FURYK > 25 isn't high but can't ignore his record and the fact he will probably plod around without any fuss - seems to be bang on with his game again and sinking putts that matter... a boring but solid pick and he should continue his terrific record here

SIMPSON > perhaps a chance for the local lad (member here at QH) to shine in a decent field and regain a bit of the glow he gained last year when playing so well so regularly; top 15 last wk and has been top 10 a few times already this year, 36 b/f

CURTIS > having won 2 weeks ago and made the top 15 last wk I will ride the crest with ben and as he has a 2nd place finish here previously (proving amongst others that shorter hitters can do well here) he could well nip into the frame again as he is currently playing well with great stats for accuracy GIR etc - 95 Betfair

BYRD > often back this guy and he knows how to win - may be off the boil with a few wks off but that new dad factor really can help! 90 is attractive for last year's runner-up - couple of top 10s this yr and played well at augusta

trading > De Jonge 130 (local and bit of form), Huh 100 (talented lad), Duke 150 (flavour of the month) & Villegas 180 all interest and looking for quick returns...

good luck all

[Wallsendlad]

Bloody hell Gecko. You certainly do have some influence in betting markets when you tip one up. I can only find 66/1 for BYRD.

[criffa]

Three tips this week not any real insight other than what is already posted

Given injury to Billy Foster and form at Quail Hollow will give Westwood a miss.

Phil Mickleson Based on recent form and good record at Quail Hollow is difficult to oppose.

Zach Johnson Has been knocking on the door in recent weeks so could step up this week

Bill Haas bit of a longer shot but somehow fancy him this week.

All Each Way
Best of Luck

[gecko6]