PGA Tour - Valero Texas Open April 19th - 22nd 2012

The rabbit

This week the PGA tour moves to Texas for the Valero Texas Open which takes place at the AT&T Oaks Course, San Antonio. This tournament has been going for many years but the AT&T Oaks course only hosted it for the first time in May 2010 so only two year's course form to look at.

It is a par 72 and is over 7500 yards with four par 5's and the shortest par 5 is 567 yards. The course is long ( ranked 17th hardest on this tour in 2010 ) and the winning score in 2010 was -14 when Adam Scott won and it was only -8 last year when windy conditions made it play quite hard with Brendan Steele coming first.

Present forecast ( which could obviously change ) is for mainly dry sunny weather with winds of about 10 mph.

Not a particularly good field for this by usual PGA standards with Matt Kuchar being the likely favourite but his confidence will not have been done any good by his final round of 77 yesterday. I think that this may be a chance for one of the lesser known players to get their first or 2nd win so I will probably go with a few of them including Bud Cauley who I bet on last week. I think that Jimmy Walker may do well here and Cameron Tringale has shown a liking for this course.

Selections etc to follow

Good luck everybody Smile

Pete

Wallsendlad · Group 1 Class Joined: 14 Apr 2009 Posts: 390

Freddie Jacobson has a record for this tournament that makes him my choice here. His record @ The Oaks in the the 2 years played there is 2nd & T5th (& coincidentally he was T5th in 2009 also, at the previous venue)
And with Peter Hanson playing in the China Open, what price a Swedish double come Sunday? Wink

harbinger10 · Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 6:51 pm Post subject:

yes me too wallsendlad fredrick has a very good chance here and i also agree with rabbit with jimmy walker and cameron tringale but there are orthers who may sneek under the radar which make a little more appeal to me is dicky pride and at the momment is around 125/1 he has 2 top ten finishes 4 torny's
made 4 cuts he is 5th on scoring ave and 1st on par 3 birdies if he can work on his accuracy off the tee he can be a force here will give my selections properly later.
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stamina · Classic Winner Joined: 15 Feb 2006 Posts: 986

Hi Wallsenlad and Harbinger, not really sure about your Jacobson selection because of his last round on Sunday, Didn't he shoot a 81. Can't comment on his golf game because I never saw any of it, but I can imagine his confidence might be dented also. He was one of my wagers last week and I was expecting him to do better than he did, conditions and scores for most were tough by reading the final leaderboard, but if you can give us your assessment on the golf at the RBC Heritage last week, I would be grateful as I usually take this into consideration for the following week.

Many Thanks

Paul

harbinger10 · Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 9:48 pm Post subject:

hi stamina not sure what your assessment of the heritage warrents but if you mean players that done well and could possibly progress then i think knost is one to watch may be ,he now has 2 top three finshes and is moving up the fedex ladder biggest mover there up 62 places could be returning to some form right now another moving in the right direction is billy mayfair he posted a final round of 69 and had one of the best shots of the day when chiping in a 20 yard bunker shot for birdie on the 17th, and was tied 4th his first round there let him down a bit but he came back from that ,his best round was the third with a -4 and if he brings that into this weeks torny he could be value at around 100/1 and i do see were your coming from with jacobson was very poor in that final round and i may have to reconsider backing him after looking at his performance recently but as wallsendlad said his record in this is good enough to warrent a small ew but even then his price is coming down all the time and may not be for me here currently 22/1 .charley hoffman had a stormin 2nd round with a 65 and could of put him right in the thick of it but he couldnt keep up the tempo when it came down to it the 14th and 16th done him in with a double bogey and bogey he was going quite well up to there and he also has to have a chance this week well thats my round up there and i do hope this was helpful to you stamina good luck with this weeks selections my friend Very Happy

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dont gamble if you cant afford to lose it

The rabbit · Posted: Mon Apr 16, 2012 11:08 pm Post subject:

Going with these four so far but may add one more before it starts as I was going to bet on D A Points but I have just noticed that he is a non starter

Bud Cauley ( 40/1 ) is a player who I backed last week and he was a bit disappointing but he may have found the course and conditions against him and I think he is worth another chance this week. He only turned professional in 2011 after performing very well as an Amateur and has already showed some good form and has played well recently with a jt 16th at the Transitions, a jt 4th at the Arnold Palmer and a jt 8th at the Shell Houston. His overall game is in good shape for somebody with a limited amount of experience. He is capable of playing well from tee to green and this course could suit him.

Cameron Tringale ( 60/1 ) has yet to win on the PGA tour but produced some good results in 2011 on his second full year on the PGA tour as he obtained 5 top ten finishes with his best results being a jt 4th at the Greenbrier Classic and a jt 4th at the Asia Pacific Classic in Malaysia. He was jt 4th at the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this season and his best effort since then was in his most recent event which was the Shell Houston Open when he came jt 8th. He has played in the tournament twice and has performed reasonably well in it as he was jt 28th in 2010 in a period when he was not playing that well and last year he came jt 5th so has shown a liking for playing the course.

Jimmy Walker ( 66/1 ) lives in San Antonio, Texas according to the PGA website so could be quite familiar with this week's course which is situated in San Antonio. He has yet to win on the PGA tour but has produced some good performances with four top 10 finishes last year and another three so far this year with a jt 8th at the Farmers Insurance Open, a jt 9th at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am and a jt 4th at the Northern Trust Open. He has been disappointing in his latest four events but did make the cut in all of them and could play well on this week's long course which looks likely to suit his game and he was jt 3rd here in 2010.

Matt Bettencourt ( 200/1 ) won the Reno-Tahoe in 2010 which is his only victory on the PGA tour so far and it was only a weak event by PGA standards but it showed that he has the ability to win on this tour and this event in Texas is not particularly strong. He started 2011 quite well with a jt 5th in the Sony Open and he later came jt 6th at the Honda Classic but unfortunately he then suffered some injury problems which resulted in a loss of form. However there were signs last week that he might be regaining his form as he played quite well to come jt 6th which was his best effort for over a year and he putted very well. This week's course is a long par 72 which he should have no problem with as the one in the Reno-Tahoe is of similar length. Could go well at decent odds.

Good luck everybody Smile

Pete

aubreyhoney · Group 2 Class Joined: 08 Feb 2010 Posts: 242

hi all,
i was struggling a bit in this weeks event so i'm sorry rabbit & harbinger but took your advise & done BUD CAULEY 30/1 @ stab james as they offer 6 places. he is surely a winner waiting to happen & has been playing well & as this is a poor event this could be the week.
i also took your guys avise & done CAMERON TRINGALE 66/1 at Ladbrokes. i like this player & again he mujst be a winner waiting to happen, he goes pretty well here too so i think he's a good punt at the price.
i had to chuck in MATT KUCHAR 12/1 @ Stan James. it's a poor price i know & he was so disapointing last week but it seems interesting to me that he decided to play this event, on his day he's different grade to this lot so i have to forgive him for last week.
good luck all, Fingers Crossed

Wallsendlad · Group 1 Class Joined: 14 Apr 2009 Posts: 390

I have initially gone for Jacobson because of his previous form at the Oaks , even though he is blowing hot and cold this season so far. "Horses for courses" as they say. As Harby also pointed out, Dickie Pride, one of the more senior members of the tour, also warrants respect due to his consistency with 4 out 4 cuts made, 3 top 25s of which 2 were top 10. He seems to have appeared from nowhere this season with no form whatsoever previously. Also to confirm Charley Hoffmans chances. He could well follow up last weekends top 10 finish on a course where he has finished 2nd and a tie for 13th in the 2 years the competition has been played there. Another high finish should give him some $$$$ and the opportunity to buy a decent haircut.
As Rabbit also points out, Cameron Tringale enjoys this Oaks course too, with a tie for 5th last year following the previous years top 30 finish. 2 top 10 finishes in his 7 tournaments played proves the lad has some form to take to this tournament.

SCMTRJH · Handicapper Joined: 02 Apr 2010 Posts: 10

Charley Hoffman First Round Leader 40-1 with SJ.

He's in good form and loves it here. Shot 68 in the first round in the last two years. Decent value.

Edit:

Also, JB Holmes First Round Leader 35-1 with SJ. Well fancied here and opened with a 68 and a 70 the last two years.

harbinger10 · Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 12:34 pm Post subject:

yes scmtrjh i have him and dicky pride 100/1 for first round leader also i like the selections of rabbits with bud cauly was studying a bit last night and he came up so good luck with your selections would have put some of those in myself but scene as orthers have gone with them i will look for some rookie's
may be shine through here like bud and brian harman .
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dont gamble if you cant afford to lose it

Micko70 · Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 3:50 pm Post subject:

Fredrik Jacobson - EW @ 22/1
Fredrick Jacobson has a fantastic record in this event.

In 2011 he finished tied 5th overall, despite starting with a 72 and a 75 in the first 2 rounds.

In 2010 he finished 2nd after shooting a fine 65 in round 3 and going down to Adam Scott by only 1 shot who outscored Fredrick by 3 shots on the Sunday.

In 2009 he tied for 5th place again with 4 similar scores to finish on 13 under par.

He didn't take part in 2008, but in 2007 he finished he tied 21st overall but was right in the mix after 2 rounds.

In both the Masters and the Heritage he was in contention going into the final round but posted poor scores and dropped away.

In the Masters he finished with a 74 to end up on level par and a share of 19th place and last week he carded a 74 and an 81 in his final 2 rounds despite a great start.

Back on a course he loves and with his recent great record here he can get back to winning ways.

Matt Every - EW @ 80/1
Matt Every was tied 30th in this event last year, he shot 3 rounds over par but did manage to shoot a round of 69 in the 2nd round.

But he comes into this event in good form after finishing tied 8th in the Heritage after shooting a 4th round score of 67 which was the best of the day.

He has already had a 3rd & 6th place this year before the Heritage.

He normally follows a good result with a poor effort, but i am hoping he can continue where he finished off last week with the best score on Sunday and start this week in good style.

Matt Kuchar - WIN @ 11/1
Matt Kuchar is by far the best player on show this week in Texas.

He tied 3rd in the Masters, but struggled last week in the Heritage, finishing tied 44th after shooting a very poor 77 in the final round.

If he plays like he did at Augusta then he has a fantastic opportunity to grab another tour win.

He hasn't missed a cut so far this year and had 3 top 10 finishes already, he could be set for another fine week.

galster99 · Group 3 Class Joined: 21 Mar 2011 Posts: 95

A weakened field for the Valero Texas open does not make it any easier to predict the winner. Plays long and the Greg Norman designed course will take some playing. Interesting that the par 5's were the highest scoring average of all courses on Tour last year. So to my picks...

K J Choi 25-1- A rested Choi could see the popular Korean return to somehing like his best form. A poor start to the season K J will be gearing up for the Players championship and a tough course could well suit his game. Patient play will be order of the day this week and Choi could plot his way around whilst others struggle.

Harris English 40-1- What is not to like about the tall big hitting American. A very good finish at the Heritage and at the Houston open, shows he is feeling more confident on the main Tour. Hits it long and will have a chance to reach most of the par 5's this week. Capable putter I can see another first time winner here.

Brendon De Jonge 70-1- A suprisingly poor start to the year for Brendon after a very good last year on Tour. Very good short iron player and good scrambler. Another streaky player who is capable of a 64 or 65 from nowhere...hopefully this week will see him return to form.

Finally my long shot this week Jonas Blixt 200-1 e/w. The elegant Swede has been performing well on the Nationwide Tour. A colourful charachter who reminds me very much of Swedish player Jesper Parnevik. Two solid opening rounds at the Shell Houston open recently, I can see this course suiting his game. Brilliant short game currently leading the Tour escaping from sand.

Good luck to whoever you have backed this week. Fingers Crossed